A little utes vs ASU analysis
Scoring offense Utah 29.2/game vs 35.7 ASU win
Rush offense 214 /game vs 155/game utah wins
pass offense 212/game vs 239/game asu win
scoring defense 22/game vs 36 game Utah wins
rush defense 128/game vs 115/game asu wins
pass defense 237/game vs 397/game (last in the nation) utah wins
adj scoring offense, .25/game vs 4.25 game ASU win
adj scoring defense -5.125/game vs 3.375 game Utah wins
Utahs offense performs as expected against the level of competition we are playing and Utah defense outperfoms expectations by about 5 pts/game. This means the ASU expected score would be a max of 30 and low of 26. Utah would expect to score 36 max and minimum 32.
This game is good matchup for us this year. We have a strong running game and with patrick/CBB both active will give ASU fits in an already depleted and exploited secondary. ASU compensates for their poor secondary play by blitzing a lot. Troy has to get the ball out quick and the WR’s need to be ready for it.
ASU has played the 124th, 62nd, 127th, 38th, 56th, 12th, 43rd, and 125th defenses. They lost to every team with a defense above 50th. We are 30th in the nation. On average against a top 50 defense ASU has scored only 22 pts/game and rely heavily on the ground game to make that happen. Out of 34 TD’s 24 are rush TDs. We match up well for that especially if williams is back. That means hansen can move up to stop the run which makes up for a lot of the slack that the LBs are leaving this year. When hansen stays back to help fogal our run defense gets loose.
Another thing to consider is that ASU run defense looks better on paper than it actually is. Teams they have played are very pass heavy (Cal, oregon, WSU, TTECh, and colorado) because of that ASU has defended 400 passes but only 300 runs and almost 100 of those come in the 4th Q when the game is already out of hand. ASU gives up 4-5 yds/carry in the first 3 quarters and then 2 yds/carry in the 4th. This is clearly when teams have started to run the clock.
We should be able to get the run game going, especially if CBB and Patrick make their mark early.
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