• Next @ UCLA – Fri 10/26 8:30PM – ESPN TV
  • Ute Fan Board

    Pace Manyung
    1

    Question for you gambling degenerates..

    What are the odds Utah wins all remaining games on their schedule?

    Feels like it can’t be higher than 10%

     

  • PlainsUte
    2

    Winning out is going to be a small percentage regardless.  So, for the sake of demonstration, if the Utes had a 70% chance of winning each game, with 7 games left, the chance of winning every single one of them is 0.7^7 which is only 8.2 percent.  Lets say the Utes then play in the Pac-12 Championship, they’d probably have a 40% chance of winning that.  So the chance of winning the rest of the games is only 3.3%.   If you want to place a bet on it, you should get something like 30-to-1 odds.

  • Well I doubt the Utes will be favored against Oregon or Colorado.

     

    ASU, USC, Oregon, & Colorado are all going to be difficult games IMO.

     

    I think Utah drops 1-2 more games.

    • dystopiamembrane
      1
      • PlainsUte
        1

        Using those odds, I get a 13% chance of winning all 7. A few of those are generous. 90% vs BYU is not realistic given the nature of the rivalry, for example.

      • Chidojuan

        ESPN’s baloney FPI has us favored in all remaining games as well.

      • Warrior Ute

        I like the Massey information generally, with a couple of clicks you can get some good information.  The transitive path feature is fun.  If you go to the rating page you can get access to all the data they are pulling in to make their estimates, if you are a numbers geek it can be fun information. 

         

        They also do a season simulation, using a Monte Carlo Simulation due to the multidue of factors in this kinds of estimate.  They come up with a 14.111% chance of us winning out and a 1.745% chance of not making a bowl game.

         

        Massey Season Simulation

        • W16Ute

          Why is it more likely we win 6 games than we win 5 in this projection?… That seems odd.

  • Tony

    We have 6 straight pac-12 games coming up. It’s possible to win them all, but very unlikely. It would be interesting to see what our longest Pac-12 winning streak is.  I bet it is no more than 3-4. 

  • GameForAnyFuss
    2

    Wielding the statistics degree I haven’t used in years, I crunched the Massey numbers provided above. We have a 13.2% chance of winning out the season. Can’t give you the number that includes the PAC12 championship game because the opponent is unknown.