D TUte Fan
@azute1
Saw that yesterday….Mind-boggling how we’ve gone 7-4 against that with all the key injuries.
Hopefully, people who have become accustomed to the success we’ve had the last couple years & are frustrated with this year will acknowledge this fact….Remarkable, really.
Sagarin has our schedule currently at #1 in the country.
Sagarin Predictor says Utah by 1.5 and gives Utes 56% chance of winning.
His model that weights recent performance higher pushes that 2.2 points.
All these seem to say the outcome is going to be determined in the last possession. GO UTES!
Right now Sagarin has Weber St as the #100 team.
FBS teams right near them include
- #97: Boston College
- #98: Liberty
- #99: Stanford
- #100: Weber St
- #101: UAB
- #102: UNLV
- #103: Rice
So certainly not elite company, but not Sam Houston St (#144) or Southern Utah (#177) or Utah Tech (#216)
beyond that, this team was legitimately, tangibly, and substantively a top 10 team. SP+ had Utah finish 10th, Sagarin had Utah finish 7th. Those are maybe the 2 most respected metrics in the sport. Beyond that, Massey composite (composite of 55 different computer polls) had Utah 11th, while metrics consensus had them at 8th.
Season was not without its warts. Some obviously disappointing moments. But in the end Utah was thoroughly a top 10 caliber team and back to back conference champions. There are levels to this, and this is one Utah hadnt hit yet. Checkmark, on to the next.
The difference is that the AP poll is a biased poll that is biased against teams outside major media markets. The Sagarin rankings are more objective. The fact that the Utes are as high as they are in the final AP poll is because they beat an AP darling, USC, twice. Texas’ ranking also reflects their position as an AP darling, more than their achievement.
It’s interesting how Sagarin has the PAC 12 teams ranked v. the A.P. No take on this. I’m just distributing the information.
A.P.
#8 Washington
#10 Utah
#12 USC
#15 Oregon
#17 Oregon State
#21 UCLA
Sagarin
#7 Utah
#12 Oregon State
#13 Washington
#15 Oregon (same as A.P.)
#18 USC
#28 UCLA
#43 Washington State
The final Jeff Sagarin ranking has Utah even higher at #7. One ahead of Texas (5 losses) and two ahead of TCU. It just goes to show how different the computers view each school/team v. the human element. They are both important, however, I take more stock in the Sagarin.
Given what Utah is coming back with, the 2023 team should be highly respected and very competitive (the key: stay healthy). That is all I’m going to say about this coming season because Utah’s schedule is bruuuuuutal.
Utah has actually played a more difficult schedule than Penn State per Sagarin:
Utah #40
Penn State #45
If you dive deeper into the stats, the two teams are very similar. Both have top 20 defenses. Utah’s offense is better. But, having Dalton out neutralizes that advantage somewhat. Losing CPIII sucks, but may not end up mattering because Clifford isn’t a prolific passer. Penn State fans constantly complain about him. They like to run the ball, which aligns more with Utah’s strength.
I expect it to be a good game.
D TUte Fan
@azute1
You’re the only person I’ve ever come across who references Massey….Most people reference Sagarin for SOS & that’s the one I’ll stick with.