2018 pac12 season


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    • #55392
      2

      noneyadb
      Ute Fan
      @noneyadb

      Based on the recruiting rankings to date for 2018, the five-year aggregate rankings predict the following conference standings for next year:

      1. USC
      2. UCLA
      3. Oregon
      4. Stanford
      5. Arizona St
      6. Washington
      7. Utah
      8. Cal
      9. Washington St
      10. Arizona
      11. Colorado
      12. Oregon St

      Charts!

      Here are the year-by-year trends for each team in the study. Keep in mind that higher standings are worse, so you want to stay closer to the bottom of the chart.

      Projected average: 5.1

      Standings average: 5.6

       

      Projected average: 4.5

      Standings average: 6.8

       

      Projected average: 10.6

      Standings average: 10

       

      Projected average: 9.9

      Standings average: 6.4

       

      Projected average: 7.9

      Standings average: 7.2

       

      Projected average: 3.8

      Standings average: 5.9

       

      Projected average: 3.7

      Standings average: 3.4

       

      Projected average: 1

      Standings average: 2.8

       

      Projected average: 5.7

      Standings average: 4.7

       

      Projected average: 8.9

      Standings average: 7.1

       

      Projected average: 5.3

      Standings average: 6.9

       

      Projected average: 10.2

      Standings average: 8.2

       

      PAC 12 North – Projected 2018 Standings

      (1) Washington Huskies

      (2017 record: 7-2 / 10-3)
      Washington’s fan-voted predicted 2018 finish
      Chris Landon

      Key Losses: DL Vita Vea, OL Coleman Shelton, WR/KR Dante Pettis, LB Keishawn Bierria, TE Will Dissly, K Tristan Vizcaino

      Key Returners: QB Jake Browning, OL Trey Adams, RB Myles Gaskin, DB Taylor Rapp, DL Greg Gaines, DB Byron Murphy, LB Ben Burr-Kirven, OL Kaleb McGary, WR Chico McClatcher

       

      (2) Stanford Cardinal

      (2017 record: 7-2 / 9-5)
      Stanford projected finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: OL David Bright, DL Harrison Phillips, LB Bobby Okereke, TE Dalton Schulz, DB Quenton Meeks, DB Justin Reid, LB Peter Kalambayi, LB Joey Alfieri, QB Keller Chryst, OL Casey Tucker

      Key Returners: RB Bryce Love, WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, OL Foster Sarell, QB K.J. Costello, OL Nate Herbig, DL Dylan Jackson, LB Curtis Williams

       

      (3) Oregon Ducks

      (2017 record: 4-5 / 7-6)
      Oregon projected finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: RB Royce Freeman, OL Tyrell Crosby, WR Charles Nelson, DB Tyree Robinson, DL Henry Mondeaux, RB Kani Benoit, DB Arrion Springs

      Key Returners: QB Justin Herbert, LB Troy Dye, WR Dillon Mitchell, OL Calvin Throckmorton, DB Thomas Graham Jr., DL Jalen Jelks, LB/DB Lamar Winston

      (4) Washington State Cougars

      (2017 record: 6-3 / 9-4)
      WSU projected finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: QB Luke Falk, WR Tavares Martin, OL Cody O’Connell, DL Hercules Mata’afa, OL Cole Madison, RB Jamal Morrow, K Erik Powell, DL/LB Frankie Luvu, DL Daniel Eukale

      Key Returners: WR Kyle Sweet, LB Jahad Woods, WR Davontavean Martin, LB Peyton Pelluer, OL Andrew Dillard, DB Jalen Thompson, WR Jamire Colvin, WR Renard Bell, DL Logan Tago

       

      (5) Cal Bears

      (2017 record: 2-7 / 5-7)
      Cal projected finish

      Key Losses: RB Vic Enwere, LB Devante Downs, RB Tre Watson, WR Jordan Veasy, DL James Looney, LB Raymond Davison, K Matt Anderson, DB Darius Allensworth

       

      (6) Oregon State Beavers

      (2017 record: 0-9 / 1-11)
      OSU projected finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: RB Ryan Nall, LB Manase Hungalu, QB Darell Garretson, WR Jordan Villamin, RB Thomas Tyner

      Key Returners: QB Jake Luton, DB Jalen Moore, TE Noah Togiai, WR Timmy Hernandez, LB Bright Ugwoegbu, RB Artavis Pierce, DB David Morris, LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray

       

      PAC 12 South – Projected 2018 Standings

      (1) USC Trojans

      (2017 record: 8-1 / 11-3)
      USC’s predicted finish per UW Dawg Pound reader survey
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: QB Sam Darnold, RB Ronald Jones, OLB Uchenna Nwosu, S Chris Hawkins, DL Josh Fatu

      Key Returners: RB Stephen Carr, LB Cameron Smith, WR Tyler Vaughns, OL Chuma Edoga, DB Iman Marshall

       

      (2) UCLA Bruins

      (2017 record: 4-5 / 6-7)
      UCLA’s predicted finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: QB Josh Rosen, DL Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, OL Scott Quessenberry, WR Darren Andrews, LB Kenny Young

      Key Returners: WR Theo Howard, RB Soso Jamabo, RB Bolu Olorunfunmi, DB Adarius Pickett, DL Jaelan Phillips, DL Boss Tagaloa

       

      (3) Utah Utes

      (2017 record: 3-6 / 7-6)
      Utah’s predicted finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: WR Darren Carrington, DL Kylie Fitts, DL Lowell Lotulelei, QB Troy Williams

      Key Returners: QB Tyler Huntley, DL Bradlee Anae, DB Chase Hansen, LB Cody Barton, RB Zach Moss, LT Jackson Barton

       

       

      (4) Arizona Wildcats

      (2017 record: 5-4 / 7-6)
      Arizona’s predicted finish.
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: QB Brandon Dawkins, RB Nick Wilson, DB Dane Cruikshank, LB Deandre’ Miller

      Key Returners: QB Khalil Tate, LB Colin Schooler, RB J.J. Taylor, LB Tony Fields, DE Kylan Wilborn, WR Shun Brown, OL Layth Freikh

       

      (5) Colorado Buffaloes

      (2017 record: 2-7 / 5-7)
      Colorado’s predicted finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, WR Bryce Bobo, RB, Philip Lindsay, WR Shay Fields, WR Devin Ross, OL Jeromy Irwin, DL Leo Jackson III, TE George Frazier, LB Derrick McCartney

      Key Returners: QB Steven Montez, LB Drew Lewis, LB Rick Gamboa, WR Jay MacIntyre, WR Juwann Winfree, OL Isaac Miller

       

      (6) Arizona State Sun Devils

      (2017 record: 6-3 / 7-6)
      ASU’s pedicted finish
       Chris Landon

      Key Losses: RB Kalen Ballage, RB Demario Richard, DL Tashon Smallwood, QB Brady White (transfer to Memphis), DL Alani Latu, LB D.J. Calhoun, LB Christian Sam

      Key Returners: WR N’Keal Harry, QB Manny Wilkins, WR Jalen Harvey, P Michael Sleep-Dalton, WR Kyle Williams, DB Chase Lucas, DL Rennell Wren

       

      Outside perspective from UW on Utah

      Comments: Utah had a crazy season in 2017. They pulled off just three wins in conference play. However, four of their six losses were all within a single possession. They are also the only team in the conference to have won a postseason game.

      The Utes project as a more balanced team in 2018. They have most of their key offensive pieces coming back including Huntley, Moss and WR Raelon Singleton. The offensive line looks fairly well set. They are, however, going to have to do some defensive rebuilding. Anae, Barton, DB Julian Blackmon and DL Leki Fotu look like the key building blocks.

      UW fans are spread all across the board on Utah. While there is a clear convergence around 2nd and 3rd place predictions, nearly 13% of respondents thought that Kyle Whittingham has what it takes to lead the Utes to a division title in 2018. We shall see.

    • #55399

      Utah
      Ute Fan
      @utah

      This is really cool. What the three year trend look like for Utah? 

      • #55403
        1

        noneyadb
        Ute Fan
        @noneyadb

        2015 class was pretty weak. 2yr would be better, but still middle of the PAC.

        • #55436
          1

          Utah
          Ute Fan
          @utah

          I agree. I’d argue that this fall will be our first year as a full fledged, fully loaded and stocked, power five team. 

          This year is our first year, that from top to bottom, we have pac-12 players from #1 to #125 (or whatever the number is). 

          • #55490

            noneyadb
            Ute Fan
            @noneyadb


            they currently rank 32nd based on 2yr average.

    • #55407
      1

      ironman1315
      Ute Fan
      @ironman1315

      It look like Utah overachieves pursuant to its rankings. Or am I reading too much into a ~2 place difference between projected and actual?

    • #55500

      KiYi-Ute
      Ute Fan
      @kiyi-ute

      Excellent post, appreciate it.

      Side note: can Cameron Smith graduate already?!

    • #55508

      Charles Satterfield
      Member
      @1bamafan

      I do a stat system involving 5 year recruiting cycles and 4 year on the field results. Both are weighed to account for leaving early, redshirting & etc. On field are weighed with more emphasis toward the current year. To keep it simple I don’t consider coaching or returning starters. This is how the Pac 12 stacks up — and I do not necessarily agree with the stats. Lower is better in my system.

      1. USC ………. 3.4
      2. Stanford ….. 11.0
      3. UCLA ……… 11.9
      4. Oregon ……. 12.6
      5. Washington … 14.4
      6. Arizona St … 17.6
      7. Utah ……… 23.9
      8. Wash St …… 25.9
      9. Arizona …… 27.3
      10. California … 28.2
      11. Oregon St …. 34.1
      12. Colorado ….. 34.3

      I use this as a point spread and do not try to figure in home field advantage. I like stats and compare mine with SBNation and Phil Steele. I beat them both 9 (IN FINISH ORDER) last year and also in 2015.

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