Based on the recruiting rankings to date for 2018, the five-year aggregate rankings predict the following conference standings for next year:
Here are the year-by-year trends for each team in the study. Keep in mind that higher standings are worse, so you want to stay closer to the bottom of the chart.
Projected average: 5.1
Standings average: 5.6
Projected average: 4.5
Standings average: 6.8
Projected average: 10.6
Standings average: 10
Projected average: 9.9
Standings average: 6.4
Projected average: 7.9
Standings average: 7.2
Projected average: 3.8
Standings average: 5.9
Projected average: 3.7
Standings average: 3.4
Projected average: 1
Standings average: 2.8
Projected average: 5.7
Standings average: 4.7
Projected average: 8.9
Standings average: 7.1
Projected average: 5.3
Standings average: 6.9
Projected average: 10.2
Standings average: 8.2
Key Losses: DL Vita Vea, OL Coleman Shelton, WR/KR Dante Pettis, LB Keishawn Bierria, TE Will Dissly, K Tristan Vizcaino
Key Returners: QB Jake Browning, OL Trey Adams, RB Myles Gaskin, DB Taylor Rapp, DL Greg Gaines, DB Byron Murphy, LB Ben Burr-Kirven, OL Kaleb McGary, WR Chico McClatcher
Key Losses: OL David Bright, DL Harrison Phillips, LB Bobby Okereke, TE Dalton Schulz, DB Quenton Meeks, DB Justin Reid, LB Peter Kalambayi, LB Joey Alfieri, QB Keller Chryst, OL Casey Tucker
Key Returners: RB Bryce Love, WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, OL Foster Sarell, QB K.J. Costello, OL Nate Herbig, DL Dylan Jackson, LB Curtis Williams
Key Losses: RB Royce Freeman, OL Tyrell Crosby, WR Charles Nelson, DB Tyree Robinson, DL Henry Mondeaux, RB Kani Benoit, DB Arrion Springs
Key Returners: QB Justin Herbert, LB Troy Dye, WR Dillon Mitchell, OL Calvin Throckmorton, DB Thomas Graham Jr., DL Jalen Jelks, LB/DB Lamar Winston
Key Losses: QB Luke Falk, WR Tavares Martin, OL Cody O’Connell, DL Hercules Mata’afa, OL Cole Madison, RB Jamal Morrow, K Erik Powell, DL/LB Frankie Luvu, DL Daniel Eukale
Key Returners: WR Kyle Sweet, LB Jahad Woods, WR Davontavean Martin, LB Peyton Pelluer, OL Andrew Dillard, DB Jalen Thompson, WR Jamire Colvin, WR Renard Bell, DL Logan Tago
Key Losses: RB Vic Enwere, LB Devante Downs, RB Tre Watson, WR Jordan Veasy, DL James Looney, LB Raymond Davison, K Matt Anderson, DB Darius Allensworth
Key Losses: RB Ryan Nall, LB Manase Hungalu, QB Darell Garretson, WR Jordan Villamin, RB Thomas Tyner
Key Returners: QB Jake Luton, DB Jalen Moore, TE Noah Togiai, WR Timmy Hernandez, LB Bright Ugwoegbu, RB Artavis Pierce, DB David Morris, LB Andrzej Hughes-Murray
Key Losses: QB Sam Darnold, RB Ronald Jones, OLB Uchenna Nwosu, S Chris Hawkins, DL Josh Fatu
Key Returners: RB Stephen Carr, LB Cameron Smith, WR Tyler Vaughns, OL Chuma Edoga, DB Iman Marshall
Key Losses: QB Josh Rosen, DL Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, OL Scott Quessenberry, WR Darren Andrews, LB Kenny Young
Key Returners: WR Theo Howard, RB Soso Jamabo, RB Bolu Olorunfunmi, DB Adarius Pickett, DL Jaelan Phillips, DL Boss Tagaloa
Key Losses: WR Darren Carrington, DL Kylie Fitts, DL Lowell Lotulelei, QB Troy Williams
Key Returners: QB Tyler Huntley, DL Bradlee Anae, DB Chase Hansen, LB Cody Barton, RB Zach Moss, LT Jackson Barton
Key Losses: QB Brandon Dawkins, RB Nick Wilson, DB Dane Cruikshank, LB Deandre’ Miller
Key Returners: QB Khalil Tate, LB Colin Schooler, RB J.J. Taylor, LB Tony Fields, DE Kylan Wilborn, WR Shun Brown, OL Layth Freikh
Key Losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, WR Bryce Bobo, RB, Philip Lindsay, WR Shay Fields, WR Devin Ross, OL Jeromy Irwin, DL Leo Jackson III, TE George Frazier, LB Derrick McCartney
Key Returners: QB Steven Montez, LB Drew Lewis, LB Rick Gamboa, WR Jay MacIntyre, WR Juwann Winfree, OL Isaac Miller
Key Losses: RB Kalen Ballage, RB Demario Richard, DL Tashon Smallwood, QB Brady White (transfer to Memphis), DL Alani Latu, LB D.J. Calhoun, LB Christian Sam
Key Returners: WR N’Keal Harry, QB Manny Wilkins, WR Jalen Harvey, P Michael Sleep-Dalton, WR Kyle Williams, DB Chase Lucas, DL Rennell Wren
Outside perspective from UW on Utah
Comments: Utah had a crazy season in 2017. They pulled off just three wins in conference play. However, four of their six losses were all within a single possession. They are also the only team in the conference to have won a postseason game.
The Utes project as a more balanced team in 2018. They have most of their key offensive pieces coming back including Huntley, Moss and WR Raelon Singleton. The offensive line looks fairly well set. They are, however, going to have to do some defensive rebuilding. Anae, Barton, DB Julian Blackmon and DL Leki Fotu look like the key building blocks.
UW fans are spread all across the board on Utah. While there is a clear convergence around 2nd and 3rd place predictions, nearly 13% of respondents thought that Kyle Whittingham has what it takes to lead the Utes to a division title in 2018. We shall see.
This is really cool. What the three year trend look like for Utah?
2015 class was pretty weak. 2yr would be better, but still middle of the PAC.
I agree. I’d argue that this fall will be our first year as a full fledged, fully loaded and stocked, power five team.
This year is our first year, that from top to bottom, we have pac-12 players from #1 to #125 (or whatever the number is).
It look like Utah overachieves pursuant to its rankings. Or am I reading too much into a ~2 place difference between projected and actual?
Excellent post, appreciate it.
Side note: can Cameron Smith graduate already?!
I do a stat system involving 5 year recruiting cycles and 4 year on the field results. Both are weighed to account for leaving early, redshirting & etc. On field are weighed with more emphasis toward the current year. To keep it simple I don’t consider coaching or returning starters. This is how the Pac 12 stacks up — and I do not necessarily agree with the stats. Lower is better in my system.
1. USC ………. 3.4
2. Stanford ….. 11.0
3. UCLA ……… 11.9
4. Oregon ……. 12.6
5. Washington … 14.4
6. Arizona St … 17.6
7. Utah ……… 23.9
8. Wash St …… 25.9
9. Arizona …… 27.3
10. California … 28.2
11. Oregon St …. 34.1
12. Colorado ….. 34.3
I use this as a point spread and do not try to figure in home field advantage. I like stats and compare mine with SBNation and Phil Steele. I beat them both 9 (IN FINISH ORDER) last year and also in 2015.
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