Are we getting a little bit overconfident in the offense?

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    • #108563

      Ute Fan

      It’s been awesome to see the offense lighting it up the past few weeks, and great to see us actually leading or the near the top of some offensive categories in the conference, but I can’t help but acknowledge we have played some pretty terrible defenses. Our opponents’ SP+/Defensive Efficiency rankings are as follows: 


      BYU: 64/52

      Northern Illinois: 111/82

      Idaho State: N/A

      USC: 56/44

      Washington St.: 90/112

      Oregon St.: 110/122


      The good news is that against the best defense we have played all year (USC), despite the penalties and red zone issues, we still moved the ball pretty effectively. The bad news is that at best they are a top 50 defense. It’s been nice to put up some points and gain some confidence the last couple weeks, but if we’re being objective we have to take into account that we were playing two of the worst defenses in the country. 

      Here are the passing stats and total team yards for the last two teams to play Washington State and Oregon State: 

      Washington State: 

      Jayden Daniels: 26/36, 363 yds, 3 td, 0 int, Total team yards: 532

      DTR: 25/38, 507 yds, 5 td, 1 int, Total team yards: 657

      Oregon State: 

      Davis Mills: 28/35, 245, 3 TD, 0 int, Total team yards: 353

      UCLA Backup: 27/41, 236, 1 TD, 0 int, Total team yards: 492


      vs. Wazzu: 21/30, 334 yds, 2 TD, 0 int, 526

      vs. Oregon State: 14/17, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 int, 503


      So we basically had similarly impressive offensive performances as UCLA and ASU against Wazzu, and slightly outperformed the offensive outputs of Stanford and UCLA vs. Oregon State. 


      Our defense has been legit. We’ve played some solid offenses in USC, Oregon State, and Washington State and still remain near the top of many defensive rankings; however, I am not willing to draw any conclusions about the offense until we face some tougher defenses. Given our offense was only ok against the only two defenses ranked inside the top 90 that we’ve faced this year, I am still in wait and see mode. 


      The defensive competition goes way up this week over anything we’ve faced. I expect the defense to continue its stellar play, and very curious to see if any of the offensive improvements we’ve seen the past few weeks are real, or just a product of playing some terrible defenses. I’m predicting a win, but I’m thinking it’s going to be something like 24-14, and we get to see a little more of Ben Lennon than we have over the past month. 

      Maybe I should clarify by what I mean by “over confident.” Our offense is currently ranked as the 13th most efficient offense in college football. My sense from twitter, media, etc. is that a lot of people are buying into this being a top 15/20 offense in the nation. Have we really improved that much? Or are we more like a top 40/50 offense that has just played extremely soft defenses?

    • #108567

      Ute Fan

      I don’t think so:

      1. Andy Ludwig, Tyler and Zack.

      2. Players getting more and more reps with Ludwig’s system

      3. Offensive line gelling.

      4. It’s October.

    • #108579

      Ute Fan

      I’ve had similar worries, but I think the one thing you are clearly overlooking is the fact that Whitt is our coach. If we had a coach like Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, or Chip Kelly (or some other coach that likes to run up the score on teams). We could have put up 60+ on both WSU and Oregon St… but Whitt would rather dominate in TOP than on the scoreboard. We could have scored another touchdown on BYU as well.

      If we ran up the score and ran our plays with less time in between, our numbers would be off the charts right now.

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Utah Utes Fan Board Forums Utah Utes Sports Football Are we getting a little bit overconfident in the offense?