Best Case Scenario for Utah (Conference Realignment)

[EmersonUte]

I saw the worst case scenario posts below, and all the action lately has me thinking. Finally we’re getting discussion about the big power conferences possibly dropping their low performers. If its really about the product, then Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Nebraska (lately), etc should all be worried.

I believe the best case scenario for Utah is a situation where we have a sort of English Premier League format with promotion and relegation. Big Ten / SEC are clearly the premier league. ACC, Big-12, Pac-12 etc are in that second tier. In a world where you see the Vanderbilts of the world relegated, it would be fascinating to see if you could earn promotion. I’m assuming its football only that would work this way. But I do think that for Utah that would be a best-case scenario.

We are 50 years away from our market size dictating enough eyeballs to get us into the big leagues. But if we could play our way in there may be a ghost of a chance. I also think the whole promotion / relegation concept would make me more interested in watching the other games. There was a great point made about how the TV is hoping this becomes NFL light – and more of a national product. But if we’re totally silo-ed off from the big league opportunity I will watch less college football, not more. However, if there’s a game where if Vanderbilt loses it means either Utah, or Baylor, or Miami is getting promoted….. then yeah, I’m in. Could make for additional interesting drama.

I think promotion / relegation could also be key to unifying the product by conference in terms of scheduling rules (8 or 9 games etc) and start to make the entire playing field a bit more logical. It could also give real opportunities for the Boise, San Diego State, Northern Illinois type teams of the world to move up into the second tier.

thoughts?

[EmersonUte]

sorry one more thought.  The TV partners will have to participate in the funnel.  That probably means a fox-tv aligned conference funnel at each tier leading to the Big 10 – and an ESPN funnel at each tier leading to the SEC.  Something like that.  TV providers are always both the problem and the opportunity.  Its frustrating.

[HoosierUte]

I love the idea, and it would probably be the best long-term solution for the health of the game, assuming that we can’t just keep things the way they are. However, I don’t think it will ever happen. One thing about people in power is that they like to stay that way. I don’t see any possible scenario where the schools that are currently raking in cash agree to any scenario in which they might be relegated in the future. 

[Utah]

My retort is this: We see all this through the lens of a sports fan. We see 30 million a year and 50 million a year and think, “wow! That is so much money!”

But schools look at it through the eyes of an educational institution. How much money has being in the PAC-12 brought Utah in research grants? How many hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars does Utah have access to now that they are in the PAC-12?

This football money is so small compared to that. And if you think Utah is going to walk away from the hundreds of millions that Cal and Stanford give them access to so they can go play Houston or BYU or Baylor…that’s a tough sell. 

Do you think Rutgers is going to be ok with being kicked out? Do you think Alabama wants to kick Vanderbilt and all the money and prestige they add because ESPN doesn’t like them? 

That’s like being married to a woman who makes 5 million a year, and you have a mistress that buys you diamond rings and takes you for rides in her ferrari that their daddy pays for and then the mistress asks you to leave your wife. You aren’t going leave the 5 million a year to go live in an apartment that her dad pays for and get a job. 

Vanderbilt gets over 1 billion a year in research grants. Football can’t touch that. 

 

I bet one of two things happens: 

1 – The money stalls or dries up, big conferences split up and we go back to what it was. 

2 – The money increases, the schools push back, 32 or so teams break off and form a professional league and the schools start over with new football teams and rules. 

Either way, we will be ok. 

[EmersonUte]

I hope you are right.  It just seems like TV is driving everything.  I hope its not the case.

 

[PhiladelphiaUte]

I like the “promotion/relegation” idea “in theory“, but we’re already seeing the SEC and ACC scheduling down so as to not mess up their season ending “ranking” and/or “bowl game”.  If we do the “promotion/relegation” thing, what’s to stop the upper-tier schools from scheduling weak SOS in order to inflate their W/L record, to ensure their status in the upper tier?  And would we wind up punishing those schools who opt for challenging (re: “relevant” / “interesting”) non-conference slates?  I already hate the trend of scheduling one FCS team per year as it is.  Incentivizing teams to pivot from an “A/B/B” or “A/B/C” schedule, to a “C-/C-/C-” schedule would only make things worse.

[Charlie]

Money, or higher value will push conferences to create the best possible lineup. This has already been hell on regional rivalries, no reason it can’t also put pressure on internal relationships. If the Big 12 and Pac 12 could have dropped 2 off the bottom and add 2 that were better, possibly they could have retained their headliners. I think to survive conferences will adjust to that pressure of creating the best lineup to a point that value is also realized with a reginal lineup. Utah is central in the west and closer than the coast to the Midwest with good travel options for fans. Add that to we have pretty much achieved top 50 status and I think Utah gets included in any arrangement that gets 50 schools into a top tier. I also think the top tier will be that big.

I believe I noted that SDS has until the end of June to commit to the Pac if they are to be included in the ’24 season. I think even the media partners, whoever they are, will want that as well. Could we see an end to this current reset by the end of June?

[2008 National Champ]

Relegation gets brought up about once a decade (and I’m in favor of it). Here are some articles from 2012 after the last round of conference realignment. SBNation

Bill Connelly used to do a yearly update before he moved to ESPN. This should allow you to look at how one model would have worked for 2002-2012 and here’s an update from 2016.