Look, no matter what happens, we should be glad that Utah will be fine. If the PAC falls, we’re still a wanted team. That’s a big deal. The same can’t be said for Oregon State and Washington State (and possibly even Cal and Stanford). Now, I’d much rather be in the PAC12 that we’ve enjoyed for the last 12 years. But let’s face it, the PAC already won’t look like what we’re used to with USC/UCLA gone and even if Oregon/Washington stay, it’s on borrowed time. They’ll be gone as soon as they can. I don’t know about ASU, but it’s been reported that Arizona wants to go to the Big12 (for basketball), but I think it sounded like they can’t go unless one or more left too (I’m not positive on this part). I don’t love the prospects of going to the Big12, but would we really rather stay with Colorado, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and a bunch of former MWC teams? At substantially less revenue too? That would be *far worse* than going to the Big12, believe me.
Anyone who seriously thinks we have a shot at the B1G is delusional. At least not until after they’ve torn apart the ACC first at the absolute earliest, but maybe not even then.
My current speculation as to what’s taking so long is that ESPN is severely underbidding, even more so than we think. Look, they know they have to get something because that Provo team alone can’t fill their late night time slot by itself and they don’t have the MWC either. BUT, if Utah, Colorado and the Arizona teams move to the Big12, they can get them for cheaper than the whole PAC. It’s been reported that the Big12’s deal is 65% owned by ESPN and any Power 5 team that joins gets equal ESPN revenue (the Fox matching amount is unknown). At $31.5 million per team that’s just under $20.5 per team for the four corners, or $82 million per year for all four. Along with the Provo team, those five teams can fill 13 weeks worth of ESPN’s late night time slot at 2-3 per team. Plus they get Prime Time and Arizona basketball in that deal. Or they can spend that $82 on the PAC which at 10 teams is $8.2 per team. ESPN’s not hurting for inventory outside of the late night slot, so the only reason to raise that amount is for expected higher viewership for Oregon and Washington, but they’re not fully committed, so why pay more than they’d pay anyway if the four corners left for the Big12? And if the PAC becomes a G5 conference they can bid a few extra bucks to get a few more cheap late night games if absolutely needed.
Considering that, in addition to $8.2 from ESPN, in order for the PAC to match the Big12, we’d need a streamer to pay $23 million per team. I doubt that would happen even if we still had USC/UCLA. AND with 2/3rds of the PAC’s games hidden on a streaming platform? Two former PAC coaches (Erickson and Rich Rodriguez) have commented that if it were them, they’d tell their AD’s not to agree to a largely streaming deal as it’s terrible for recruiting to say the least. And Rodriguez pointed out the unlikelihood of bars and restaurants having a streamer (maybe some would in the PAC footprint, but highly doubtful nationally).
Also Oregon and Washington have to know that they can get more revenue going independent until the B1G calls them then signing a GoR with the PAC. Even if they think it’ll be a few years until they go to the B1G, they’re better off on their own unless the PAC gave them unequal revenue and a flexible GoR, but that would definitely make the Big12 even more attractive to us.
Considering all that, it’s not hard to see why we don’t have a media contract yet.
Even if we’re hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst, we should start getting comfortable with the idea of moving to the Big12, because the likelihood is higher than staying in the PAC.
I already know that any down votes are because we don’t relish the prospect of going to the Big12 (and I wholeheartedly agree), I just don’t think there’s another way forward…
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