CFP – tds or Clemson?

[dystopiamembrane]

Undefeated BYU vs. two-loss champion Clemson

Allstate Playoff Predictor: BYU more likely, with a caveat

The first part of this equation is very likely to happen. No team is more likely to record an undefeated regular season than BYU, at 89%, with just two games to go (including a gimme against North Alabama). For Clemson, we’re assuming a loss against Virginia Tech before a win over Notre Dame to win the ACC.

This sets up an extreme version of the debate the committee has had for years: best vs. most deserving. There’s not a soul in the world that would argue BYU is better than Clemson, even if the Tigers drop another game. But at the same time, it’s far easier to argue that BYU earned the playoff spot, having gone undefeated and with Clemson having a pair of losses.

The Playoff Predictor thinks the Cougars would probably win this battle, with Clemson’s second loss torpedoing the Tigers’ chances. But would the committee excuse Clemson’s loss to Notre Dame since it didn’t have Trevor Lawrence? It also doesn’t feel impossible that we’d hear the argument that the Tigers are “basically a one-loss champion,” even though that would essentially mean that one of the best college football games of the season actually had no consequences for Clemson. That part is out of the Predictor’s purview and it does not account for it. Without the Lawrence argument, it thinks BYU would have a solid edge.

espn.com article

[Utesbyfive]

LOL

[Central Coast Ute]

It’s a none issue. When Lawrence gets back, Clemson will run the table and a one ND or a 2 loss FL is more deserving than an undefeated tds.

[dystopiamembrane]

I agree. In this scenario, ESPN is assuming a loss at Virginia Tech, a team which lost to Liberty last week.

[Crazyforu]

The difference in lower to middle p5 talent, then to those top end blue bloods is insane. I look at when Utah played Oregon last year. Just those few holes that Utah had, really did them in, in that game. Oregon, having top end talent, was absolutely able to take advantage.

 

The reason I bring that up. BYU has looked impressive, really damn impressive. They essentially have played 2 lower tier P5 schools (I am comfortable calling Houston and Boise) that right now, and 6 cupcake games. Not to mention, all the strange curcumstance around COVID, and what that has done some schools.

 

Boise had 2 games? under their belt with then played BYU, who was 6-0? I think Houston had 3 or 4 games cancelled, before playing BYU. If you think that isn’t an advantage, you are crazy. Lastly, you have to consider the physical toll playing higher end schools takes on a team. There is no question that bigger, stronger, faster players/teams will take a tool on a team. I know Jarom Jordan has taken heat from Y fans about this, I agree with him though.

 

If this sounds like sour grapes, its not meant to. They did all they could to build a schedule, had no crazy conference to tell them exactly what protocalls had to be followed (I could argue though that I like that the PAC has prioritized safety over football). BYU has only beaten the teams in front of them. That said, there is one hell of a difference between who they have faced, and a team like Clemson. Last, last point. 

[Central Coast Ute]

I’m not sure if a real P5 team loses 51-17 to the TDS. Thankfully, the CFP committee will take into account the fact that Boise was playing with their 3rd string QB and bench players from other positions.