Could this be true???

[Uteusmc]

Before I ask my question, I want to go on record that I would 1000% want to only go to the Rose Bowl if we win the PAC 12 Championship outright.   That being said, now my question:

Does Utah have a much better chance of going to the Rose Bowl by only winning 3 of the last 4 (with the only loss coming from Oregon) than by winning out the regular season?

If Utah wins the last 4, that means that Oregon is knocked out of the playoffs so the winner of the PAC 12 Championship goes to the Rose Bowl and the loser goes to the Alamo Bowl.   Utah would have to win the championship to go to Rose.  

If Utah wins 3 of the last 4 with their only loss coming to Oregon then that means Oregon remains eligible for the playoffs.  Therefore if Oregon loses the PAC 12 Championship, Utah goes to the Rose Bowl but if Oregon wins the Championship they move onto the playoffs and the 2nd Place team (Utah by default) goes to the Rose Bowl.   With Oregon already ranked 4th (Whether that is correct is a discussion for another thread) in the initial playoff poll there really is no way for them to get knocked out of contention without a loss.

What I don’t know is if contractually the Rose Bowl is required to take the runner up PAC 12 team if the champion makes the playoffs.   

Curious to see if any of you can think of where I am wrong on this.

[Wilson’s Mustache]

The second place team does not go to the Rose Bowl by default. If Utah is unranked at the end of the season–which is extremely likely if they lose two games before then–the Rose Bowl can pick a team. There is potential that another Pac-12 team (UCLA or ASU) could end the season ranked as well.

Therefore, if Utah loses to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game there is no guarantee that they will go to the Rose Bowl anyways. The only way to guarantee that is to win the Pac-12 Championship.

Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL SELECTION PROCEDURES

[SalUteopia]

^^ This. There is no guarantee we’re ranked or even the 2nd best P12 team at 8-5. Also, I wouldn’t put it past the committee to have tOSU jump UO in the final rankings, especially if tOSU has 4 ranked wins (Penn St, UM, MSU, BIG10 West winner). So, to state the obvious, winning the P12 is our best bet.

[MDUte]

I would also add that the team’s #1 goal (players/coaches) is to win a conference championship. Everyone would love to go to the Rose Bowl as the reward. But if we end up losing the CCG in the above scenario, the program would still be left without a Pac 12 Title and that’s the next milestone everyone is trying to accomplish.

[Charlie]

If Utah beats Stanford, Arizona and Colorado, they will be ranked. Any losses to a top 10 team will not hurt a ranking in the 20s. It would then be unlikely another Pac team will pass us in rankings, if it was to happen it would be a north team winning out while beating Oregon. The runner up in the CCG can easily be passed over by Oregon in the bowl selection if Oregon is not in that game.

[Wilson’s Mustache]

Its not the ranking going into the Pac-12 Championship though. It will be the week after the conference championships. Utah will be 8-5 at that point. In 2019 (most reason full year) there were zero five loss teams ranked and only three 4 loss teams ranked.

[Charlie]

We don’t have to have 5 losses. A split with Oregon and taking the other 3 is doable.

[Utah5410]

It’s better for Utah to just win games and let the chips fall where they may. It’s not in KW DNA to throw games anyways.

[utefansince79]

Indeed the Rose Bowl is 2 months away.  Worry this week about Stanford (and only Stanford).

Would be nice to make it to Pasadena and the Grand-daddy of all bowls, but that is a long way off.

 

[tarheelute]

DNA notwithstanding, I agree that Whittingham could not accept losing on the 20th as a strategy to go to the Rose bowl. And how do you coach players play to lose? – purposely miss a tackle here, drop a pass or a punt, there, etc. Seems unethical to contemplate, certainly to execute, similar to throwing a game.

[UteThunder]

It would be so easy for a football coach to throw a game. They don’t even have to let the players in on it, just call plays with a low chance for success. 

[tarheelute]

I don’t see Ute coach, on his own, calling plays to lose a game. I do not see a HC, certainly Coach Whit, convincing one of his coaches to throw a game. So neither easy or likely.

[Uteusmc]

I don’t think that is necessarily true WM….

The RB guidelines state the next highest ranked CFP team… Not the next highest ranked team in the top 25 of the CFP. Technically Utah would have a rank and for arguments sake, lets assume it is 33rd nationally in the playoff poll but is higher than any other PAC 12 team. They are still ranked higher than any other PAC 12 team since the PAC 12 is a “partner conference.” By default they would still be selected

It does mention that if they are part of “cluster” of teams within SEVERAL spots of other teams, then the RB is allowed to subjectively select from one of the other teams. I.e. Utah is ranked 33rd, OSU is ranked 35th and Arizona is ranked 36th (I threw that one it just to see if you are still reading), then the RB committee could select Arizona if they wanted to.

[SalUteopia]

It’s possible that either Oregon St or ASU are 9-3 and ranked higher than us.

[Wilson’s Mustache]

That is incorrect. the CFP committee only ranks the top 25 teams. Beyond that there are no rankings. If there are no ranked teams then the RB can select from any Pac-12 team. There is not way for Utah to be selected by “default” this year other than winning the Pac-12 Championship.

[Uteusmc]

Cool.. That makes sense and answers my original question.

[UteDuke]

Don’t count on Oregon winning out. They simply are not consistent enough this year to put any stock into them getting through SLC, let alone their other 3 conference games, all against North opponents by the way. Utah needs to focus on winning all of its games and bringing absolutely everything they have to the championship game. If they do that I think the team will have its best possible shot to be smelling the Roses come December.

[SalUteopia]

Agreed, Duke. 12-1 UO to playoffs and 8-5 Utah to Rose seems too neat of a scenario to actually happen. This is college football after all.

[Charlie]

I agree, Oregon is not our concern. Utah simply takes our games one at a time, trying to win each, and accept the option offered to us in the post season. Concern for how to get other Pac teams to the post season is not at all our concern. If Utah is offered the Rose Bowl, it matters little to me what circumstances lead to that. Currently the CFPs take teams first before the bowls extend their offers. We have to participate in the current process until a more perfect process comes to past. Oregon will have difficulty winning out and they are on their own to do so.

[Utesbyfive]

Just win baby!