How bad did the Washington loss really hurt our Rose Bowl chances?

[Larry B]

If Washington wins out, including winning the Pac12 championship, wouldn’t they still have a good shot at the playoffs? They would be a 1 loss P5 team.

 

So it seems to me that as long as we win the South (and Washington wins out) we are going to the Rose Bowl no matter what. What am I missing?

[Anonymous]

Utah has to win the conference to go to the Rose Bowl because they won’t be selected for the CFP. Utah could potentially not be the highest ranked P12 team if Washington wins out. 

[Larry B]

So if Washington wins the Pac12 and goes to the CFP, the Rose Bowl chooses who they take? And why wouldn’t they choose a 9-3 Utah over a 9-3 Colorado or USC?

[Anonymous]

I think the rule is HIGHEST CFP ranked team. Obviously Colorado should be lower than Utah. WSU could be lower BUT USC could be higher after Utah loses to Washington for the second time. 

[Anonymous]

Actually WSU will definetly be lower with losses to Colorado and Washington under your scenario. It is USC that scares me. 

[Anonymous]

Also Utah has been jobbed before see Vegas bowl 2015. 

[LiquidUte]

I agree that a 1-loss UW still has a good chance for CFP.

The problem is if USC wins out and we take another loss in the P12 champ game, USC would possibly pass us in the rankings and take the Rose Bowl spot.

[Sweetness]

Obviously if UW does end up in the playoff it could hurt rose bowl chances, but it could really hurt us if UW is left out and we lose to colorado. In that scenario, it could be sun or vegas bowl for a 3rd straight year.

Say, CU loses to WSU next week, UW beats WSU, USC & Stanford win out and we lose to Colorado.

In this scenario we end up at 9-3 3rd place in the south and tied for 5th place overall in the conference with stanford. WSU, USC, CU, Stanford and us would all end up at 9-3. USC would go to the championship game. The winner between SC and Washington goes to the Rose, and the runner up goes to the Alamo. At that point the conference is then choosing between between WSU, CU, Utah and Stanford for the next four bowl spots. Colorado or WSU would go to the Holiday bowl with the other going to foster farms. The sun bowl is then choosing between Utah and Stanford. Most likely we lose that battle and end up in vegas.

Had SC lost it increased UW playoff hopes which gives an automatic +1 in the bowl pecking order, and it also would have put USC at 8-4. Utah at 9-3 with a head to head win over SC, probably gets the bowl selection nod, which would have made our baseline the foster farms bowl. Now, a lost at CU most likely means vegas.

We’ve just got to win. Bottom line. We’ve faded the last two years at the end of the season, but I don’t see us doing that this year. This team is getting healthy, they seem very motivated and focused, and are playing their best football. I think we win out.

On the flip side. If we win out and win the title game, not only will we be going to the rose bowl and p12 champs, we will be the highest ranked team in the conference and playing in the rose bowl. That would be pretty cool, to be the flag bearer for the conference.