but s&p, Sagarin, and Vegas all give us about a 4 point edge. Utah is 16 spots higher in massey composite. So, essentially, their argument was math based while using the OUTLIER as evidence.. just….lol
Vegas lines are based on how people bet. Not how they feel the point spread would actually be.
USC won’t likely make the same mistakes tomorrow as they had last weekend, and Utah hadn’t yet been challenged. I hope Utah is taking them as seriously now as they did back when they were trouncing Stanford.
Efficient market theory applies here. If the spread is not a good representation of the actual expected outcome then professionals will recognize it, lay big money and eventially the spread will meet reality. If not, someone will come up with a system to beat Vegas. Market inefficiencies could happen in lower level G5 teams but not for teams of the caliber of USC and Utah that get a lot of press coverage. Over the long haul Vegas spreads the day before a game are remarkable close to the actual outcomes.
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