LarryK Transfer Problem . . . and . . . IT IS A PROBLEM

[UteThunder]

Two of the common arguments we hear when players transfer are 1) Transfers happen everywhere and 2) It’s okay because we have better players coming in the following year. 

Both of those arguments completely fall apart when you look at the actual numbers. Using 247 (and some ESPN) recruiting numbers, here’s where things stand during LarryK’s time on The Hill. The following are each of LarryK’s recruiting classes with each recruit’s number of stars and their rating. Players who transferred are in bold.

2011 – 3* .8444, 3* .8111, 3* .8111, 3* .8111, 3* .8111, 2* .7667

2012 – 4* .9252, 3* .8699, 3* .8556, 2* .8600, 0* NR, 0* NR, 0* NR

2013 – 3* .9028, 3* .8174, 2* .7000, 2* .7000, 2* .7000, 0* NR, 0* NR

2014 – 4* .9783, 3* .8749, 3* .8152, 0* NR, 0* NR

2015 – 3* .8982, 3* .8400

2016 – 4* .9559, 3* .8714, 3* .8578, 3* .8728, 3* .8333, 0* NR, 0* NR

2017 – 4* .9442, 3* .8890, 3* .8752, 3* .8726, 3* .8513

2018 – 4* .9406, 4* .9369, 3* .8865, 3* .8800, 3* .8556, 3* .8375, 0* NR 

 

2019 – 4* .9430, 3* .8888, 3* .8850, 3* .8278, 0* NR

 

For those of you scoring at home, that is 51 signed recruits with 29 transfers! That is roughly 57% of all of his recruits transferring out of the program at some point during their career!! And this doesn’t even include walk-ons! I would bet there is not another program in the country that has a transfer rate this high over the last 9 years. 

Look closer and you’ll see that 5 of his top 10 rated recruits have transferred out of the program, including 3 of the top 5 and that includes the top 2 rated recruits transferring out! Seriously, how can people say it’s okay that all of these transfers are happening because we have better recruits coming in? OUR HIGHEST RATED RECRUITS HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRING OUT AND THEY AREN’T BEING REPLACED BY HIGHER RATED RECRUITS! 

In every single LarryK recruiting class, some combination of the top 3 highest rated recruits has transferred out of the program. Out of 9 recruiting classes, he has lost his highest rated recruit 5 times; he has lost his 2nd highest rated recruit 5 times; and he has lost his 3rd highest rated recruit 6 times!

 

The recruits coming in this next year will be LarryK’s 3rd(.9469), 8th(.9280), 12th(.8980), and 24th(.8639) highest rated recruits. The odds say at least two of these guys will transfer out at some point and, more than likely, at least one of those transfers will be one of the top two recruits, if not both of them.

[gUrthBrooks]

And so what? Are you going to buy him out? Who’s going to do it? Who’s gonna do it? You? You, UteThunder? Coach K has a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for Gach and you curse the Basketball Coaches. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what The coaches know, that Gach’s transfer, while tragic, probably wins games. And coach K’s existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, *wins games*. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want K on that court. You need K on that court. They use words like transfer, ran out, f**king pussy ass whiny bitch. They use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending the game. You use them as a punchline. He has neither the time nor the inclination to explain himself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very fandom that Coach K provides, and then questions the manner in which He provides it! He would rather you just said “thank you” and went on your way, Otherwise, he suggests you pick up a clipboard and review tape for the upcoming game. Either way, He don’t give a *damn* what you think you are entitled to!

[gUrthBrooks]

Obviously this was just a cut and paste and rejigger from a movie with edits but the point is you have a guy LOCKED into a program for a looong ass time and therefore he could do whatever he wanted for a looong ass time. So what are you going to do?

[UteThunder]

Yes, I’m going to buy him out . . . good grief. 

The “so what” of this post is to point out that what so many of our fans are all too quick to dismiss as not being a problem for any number of reasons, actually is a problem. The numbers don’t lie.

I think it is easy for some to dismiss because as the years go by, people forget who some of the transfers were and just how many of them there have been or they just say they weren’t good players anyway so who cares. But when you see in black and white, just how many players have transferred and how highly rated many of them were relative to the talent we bring in year to year, it makes it impossible to dismiss what is going on. 

Obviously we’re not going to buy LarryK out of his contract, but I think it is important for fans and more importantly Harlan, to understand just how big of a problem this has been. When the time comes, LarryK needs to move on.

[gUrthBrooks]

So you are bringing in 3 of your top 15 recruits all time to replace 1 of your top 15 recruits all time. (As far as rankings have existed)

https://247sports.com/college/utah/Sport/Basketball/AllTimeRecruits/
top bball recruits

[UteThunder]

Here is the problem with this line of thinking: Those 3 aren’t being brought in to replace anyone. They were recruited to ADD to the existing top 15 recruits on the roster. Or at least that is how it SHOULD work. Instead of adding these highly rated pieces to other highly rated pieces that have been in the program developing, we are hitting the reset button . . . again. 

And like I said before, “The odds say at least two of these guys will transfer out at some point and, more than likely, at least one of those transfers will be one of the top two recruits, if not both of them.”

 

 

 

[GameForAnyFuss]

Nobody is suggesting he be bought out. Some people are just trying to build the case against him for the next time we don’t make the tournament and his buyout is cheaper.

[Utah5410]

Larry is 100 percent the problem. “is he going to but him out” – Stupid question. Anyone associated as a fan or other of the program knows larry isn’t going anywhere due do his contract. But, the pressure should continue to be applied because his results are unacceptable. The recruits are all Larry’s recruits for good or worse. We all understand 18 years kids are going to transfer from time to time. Yes, it happens everywhere. I would expect 1 oe more each year. But, I don’t expect it to continousely our core key guys. Each year.

Either one or both of these things may be true. Either Larry has no idea what he wants. Meaning he recruits talented kids but doesn’t realize who want to realize who they are as people within the team environment that he wants to create. Or he just a s**** coach, in over his head and believes he is doing his best. But in reality is not a good teacher, developer or communicator with these young kids that he brings in. Either way the results are not there.

[Rick]

Can you or any of the other “fire Larry” crew name me one transfer that has left and did jack s**t on the court for the team they transfered to?  I have all day.  I will wait.

[Yergensen]

Not many I can think of:

Marshall Henderson (was this on Larry or was it Boylen?)

Makol Mawien (story I heard was Larry helped Makol transfer due to a bad situation in his personal life)

Devon Daniels (rumors regarding whether he was a team cancer)

The bigger issue might be why aren’t these players more productive at the U and their next school?  Is Larry mis-assessing talent and/or squandering it (see Kuz and Plummer)?

[UteThunder]

@Rick – So your argument is that LarryK can’t identify, evaluate, recruit, and develop talented players? Because that is what it means when a coach is losing more than half of his players who then don’t do “jack s**t” after they leave and the players who stay can’t win consistently either. 

It’s quite the position you’ve taken on out basketball coach. Not only are you okay with a coach who can’t keep his players, you are okay with a coach who can’t recruit talented players and can’t develop the players that don’t transfer. Sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

[Utah5410]

That’s not the point…. the point is Larry recruits them for the purpose of building a team now and for the future. 2/3 years in these “core” guys leave. Tillman, johnson, Hendrix, Daniels, both Gath….. so that the next year young kids come in, play and then transfer out. Then after they transfer out Larry complains about how young he is. It’s the same every year.
That’s the problem.

[Tony (admin)]

And every year we are another year or two away from being “really good.”  Rinse.  Repeat.