Interesting article in the Athletic about the likelihood of P5s moving away from divisions to be better positioned for the new 12 team CFP format. The idea is with divisions you might have an undefeated or 1 loss division champ matching up against a 3 or 4 loss division champ. If an upset occurs in the CCG, the conference might be in a tough spot to secure the autobid and also not well positioned to secure at-large bids. Instead, the conference can either keep the established divisions for scheduling purposes or do away with them all together. But the point of the article is that it’s in each conference’s best interest to matchup the 2 teams with the best record to play for the CCG in order to be best positioned to secure as many playoff spots possible.
This makes a lot of sense to me. And it also made me think that if the PAC 12 decided to get rid of divisions all together then it wouldn’t matter if the PAC expanded east to include teams from Texas or Oklahoma for example. Because scheduling could be adjusted so that teams got to play a fair number of times in recruiting hot spots. On the other hand, expansion could also increase the competitiveness of the conference even more and thus make the path to a playoff spot even tougher. I assume it all comes down to the $$$ at the end of the day. If expansion increases the amount of money each team in the conference receives then I’d imagine it would be hard not to consider it.
I think I’m still of the opinion of keeping the conference at 12 teams, if possible, but I like the idea of removing the divisions to create better access to the CFP. Curious to hear what everyone else thinks?
Impact of divisions to new 12 team CFP
Interesting thoughts.
Regardless of how they align or expand our conference – I just want the Utes to win. I think we are well-positioned in the next few years to make some noise nationally. I am not sure if we can do it in 2021, but the future looks bright IMO.
I would prefer to see the conference championship game go. In most cases, even with a 12 team conference playing 9 of 11, you end up with a rematch. The first game already exists as a necessary tie-breaker and playing the CCG only serves as an elimination game.
2016 – 2019 Playoff w/o CCG (new format using committee ranks):
2019 – Top 4 seeds: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Utah. 5-10: Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Wisconsin, Florida, Penn State. Top G5: Memphis. Bubble: Auburn, Alabama, Oregon. 2nd Pac team should get in over 4th SEC team but committee’s don’t always follow logic.
2018 – Top 4: Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State. 5-10: Notre Dame, Georgia, Michigan, Florida, LSU. Top G5: UCF. Bubble: WSU and a bunch of 3 loss teams. WSU gets in. Utah at 17 wasn’t getting in unless they win CCG and that probably eliminates WSU. Good for Utah, bad for conference $.
2017 – Top 4: Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma, Wisconsin. 5-10: Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State, Penn State, USC. Top G5: UCF. Bubble: TCU, Stanford, UW. B1G probably loses Penn State so that Big-12 and Pac get 2 teams each.
2016 – Top 4: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Washington. 5-10: Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State. Top G5: Western Michigan. Bubble: USC, Florida State, Louisville. Potential 3rd Pac team as USC has a win over a top 4 seed.
I’m opposed to exansion just for the sake of expanding, but if the Pac 12 can add Texas or Oklahoma, its a no brainer in my opinion. I also think its a good idea to do away with divisions, and have the two best teams play for the championship. No real negatives to that, other than the championship game may be a rematch, but that’s already possible under the current structure.
If they do this, would be interesting to see 8 conf games instead of 9. It’s why we schedule 29 years in advance.
With 9 conf games booked, BYU gets us to 10. Add one FCS to get to 11, leaving us only ONE out of conference game.
Going to 8 would give us more flexibility to schedule in recruiting hotspots, or pick up a meaningful OOC game. Or could strategically schedule down for some rest like the SEC does.
I agree with you. 8 conference games has been a huge advantage to the SEC/ACC in getting their top team into the CFP each year. This eliminates 7 more losses in the conference each year that would increase the probability of an upset loss occurring.
But I don’t think the PAC or other conferences will decrease the number of conference games. The reason why the PAC originally went to 9 games wasn’t to make for a more competitive league. It was a money grab to sign, at the time, the largest media deal in history. 9 conference games provided more tier 1 content to ESPN/Fox in order to max out the money the conference would receive. The Big 10 did the same thing a few years later when they signed their huge deal, which eclipsed everyone else’s. Given that the PAC has fallen behind the other conferences in media revenue, I don’t see Kliavkoff having the ability to lower the amount of conference games to 8. I imagine he’s going to be under pressure to sign as large of a deal as possible. However, it seems more likely to me that the SEC/ACC will end up going to 9 anyway. If they do, I’m sure they might spin it that they wanted to see more scheduling uniformity amongst the P5s. But the only real reason they will go to 9 is if they feel the additional revenue is worth it. They’ll have a lot of leverage to make sure it’s worth it because if they do it, this will take away their advantage for easier access to the playoff.
Regarding our future scheduling and assuming things stay status quo at a 9 game conference schedule, here’s what I’d like to see with our OOC schedule: 1 P5 each year, 1 G5 in a recruiting hot spot each year, and 1 in-state school on a rotating basis BYU/USU where we play each school on a 2 Home for every 1 Away game. I realize FCS schools like Weber St rely on the money they get from playing P5 schools but I think the P5 needs to eliminate all FCS games from their schedules. It’s a complete waste of a game for the fans to pay to watch. The same way the P5 schedule 1 or 2 G5 games, the G5 should be the ones to schedule FCS games each year IMO.
The California schools insisted on playing each other every year. The other 6 schools didn’t want to give up trips to one of the best recruiting states in the country. 9 games with the California schools split divisionally was the solution and the only way expansion was passed.
It’s hard to argue something different should have happened since that’s what it took for Utah and Colorado to join the party. Now that they each have a voice, perhaps something new can be agreed upon and implemented at the same time as the new TV contract.
As it relates to the CCG, I know there will be upsets but I expect the better team wins this game most often. If the better team is not the highest ranked team, I struggle with getting rid of the game for that reason. Often in the past the CCG has added another game with about the highest ranked conference foe possible. If they simply made an auto bid for P5 champs it is a moot point. If we can’t beat out the second best G5 champ, that would be sad. But I see that concern because how in the world do you compare G5 teams with P5? Records don’t do it, and a committee is an awful way to do it. Best solution, separate championships for the P5 and G5.
As it relates to number of conference games, we should go up not down if changed. There are clearly too many poor games in everyone’s inventory. We already skip 2 conference foes. One single warmup game with a G5 and no more FCS games would be best. I do like the national games among P5s. Since comparing even P5 conferences is full of errors, I think we need to create complete focus during the season on achieving conference standing. Following the regular season including the CCG if there is one, attention then can turn to competition between conference champs and a few select others.
Here’s the latest regarding PAC 12 AD’s discussing the topic:
PAC 12 exploring changes
If the playoffs expand to 12 teams, I’d like to see the conference sign a $$$ lucrative contract with FOX for premier coverage on Saturday and Sunday games, all other games can be aired on the Pac/BigXII/Longhorn networks. Expand to 20 teams with two divisions. Play a 10 game, round robin, yearly rotating conference schedule. Do away with the championship game, and appoint 2 divisional champs. New conference could have 4+ teams in a 12 team playoff format.
Pac12 + UNLV, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Nebraska, Kansas, and Kansas St..
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