Sagarin, S&P+ 11/12/18

[shakeitsugaree]

The win against Oregon seemed to ‘right the ship,’ statistically speaking:

S&P+ ranks us 15 (+4), Sagarin 14 (+1). Both systems predict we will win both our remaining games; S&P projects we beat Colorado by 13 points and TDS by 15.

I became curious regarding the defense’s poor performances – were there any trends that would allow me to make some predictions regarding future performance? The defense seems to defend the run well, Rushing Defense S&P+ ranked 21, but struggle against the pass, Passing Defense S&P+ ranked 58.

The defense’s percentile performance average on the year is 64%. I looked at the games where the defense performance was in a percentile less than 64% (UW, WSU, Stanford, ASU and Oregon) to see where these teams had success against us. First thing to jump out at me were the overall rankings in passing offense:

Team ………. Off S&P+ ………. Passing S&P+
UW ………… 40 ……………. 23
WSU ……….. 15 ……………. 37
Stanford …… 20 ……………. 8
ASU ……….. 31 ……………. 35
Oregon …….. 28 ……………. 29

All teams have overall offense ranking and passing offense ranking in the top 50. When I looked at the individual game stats, one metric was consistently better than average for our opponents: success rate on passing downs (Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, or fourth-and-5 or more). Here are the single game stats (Utah vs. Team)

For whatever reason, when a good passing offense is in a ‘must’ pass situation, those teams are successful against our defense more often than average

So, the defense struggles to defend the pass – what does this mean going forward? S&P+ ranks UW 11 (below #10 Utah State) and WSU 16; this means that on a neutral field, UW would beat Utah by very slim margin (1.5) and Utah would beat WSU by a very slim margin (0.7). S&P+ predicts that WSU beats UW in the Apple Cup (51% probability), meaning if we win the south, we face WSU in the championship game.

Frankly, I would rather face WSU. UW’s defense, ranked 6th in the nation by S&P+, would give our inexperienced QB and RB fits. So I am cheering hard for Oregon this week and Wazzu next week – a lot has to happen, but the conference championship is very much in play!

[Anonymous]

Thanks for this. I love when you do this. 

[Tony (admin)]

That’s what she said.

[FtheY]

Giggity

[Redblood]

Thanks, this is awesome! What are the overall offense and passing ranks of our remaining games? In the games I’ve watched CO seems capable of having success on “must pass” situations. Thx

[shakeitsugaree]

Thanks for the kind words! Here are some stats regarding our remaining opponents:

Colorado – Offensive S&P+ 85, Passing S&P+ 68, Passing Downs S&P+ 42
TDS – Offensive S&P+ 95, Passing S&P+ 73, Passing Downs S&P+ 97

One thing I will point out is that we have two wins against ‘good’ passing teams: Stanford and Oregon. In those games, the offense performed above their average (62nd percentile): vs Stanford 91st percentile and vs Oregon 67th percentile. So our offense capable of ‘bailing out’ a subpar defensive performance, even as recently as last Saturday. I remain hopeful that we will take the south this year.