Sagarin, S&P+ 11/7/18

[shakeitsugaree]

Yikes, that was … bad. But not too bad, as reflected in the advanced analytics.

Sagarin ranks us 15th, S&P+ 19th. We dropped 5 spots in Sagarin’s system, 7 in S&P+, despite having our absolute worst performance of the season.

The defense had a terrible day, turning in a performance in the 10th percentile. Looking at the game specific analytics, the issue was N’Keal Harry and Brandon Aiyuk, who combined for 15 catches, 261 yards and 3 TDs. The ASU receiving corp caught 90% of their passes for 285 yards, with a success rate (definition here) of 67%. Harry was unstoppable, with an 80% success rate, and all three TD receptions. Eno Benjamin also had a day: 175 yards, 2 TDs and 56% success rate.

OK, so why didn’t Utah drop further in the advanced analytics? Because advanced analytics realize this game was as flukey for ASU as it was for Utah:

ASU’s S&P+ ranking jumped 10 spots following Saturday’s game, from 62 to 52, which is where they started the season. Both systems predict an ASU loss to Oregon.

A big part of the loss were Utah’s 3 turnovers, which are seen as ‘luck’ factors in most advanced analytic systems. Combined with the loss of Huntley, the stats people are ready to write this loss off as bad luck and move forward. By the way, we are projected by both systems to win out.

So, the analytics say that we absorb this loss and still have a very good chance to win the south.

[SalUteopia]

Great post as always!

[TheJuggernaut]

Jaylon Dixon’s turnover was one of the most “unlucky” turnovers I’ve ever seen.

[chinngiskhaan]

and that would have totally changed the game… JUST CATCH THE BALL!

 

My father (who played several games in ASU stadium way back when) told me that it’s notoriously hard to track the ball near that endzone that time of day, so that probably contributed to it, but still… ARGH!