Some interesting FPI odds

[Ghost of the HEB]

According to ESPN’s FPI analytics, Utah has a better chance at reaching the Rose Bowl if they lose this Saturday than if they win (65% vs 35%). This makes sense when you dive into it. FPI doesn’t like Utah’s chances of beating Oregon twice in two weeks, and likely thinks Oregon has a good shot on the neutral field vs RES. The thought is if Utah were to lose to Oregon this week but still make the championship, they’d likely be in guaranteed Rose Bowl scenario. That being said, it’s still not better for Utah to lose this game.
– The season goal is Pac-12 championship — not Rose. To win the championship you have to win the South. Beating Oregon ensures you win the South and doesn’t rely on ASU losing or having a must-win scenario vs Colorado.
– Oregon is very capable of losing to Oregon State next week. If Utah were to lose to Oregon this week, then Oregon goes and loses to OSU next week, that would eliminate any potential benefits of losing to Oregon.
– Still not convinced Utah would be the Rose’s first choice if they were to lose to Oregon this week, beat Colorado next week, then lose to Oregon again in the championship. That would put Utah at 8-5 and probably not in the CFP rankings. If ASU wins their last two, they’ll finish 9-3 and possibly ranked in the CFP rankings. It’s plausible the Rose would take ranked 9-3 ASU over non-ranked 8-5 runner up Utah.

– Beating #3 team at home on ABC primetime with a lot of recruits in attendance/watching from home is quite the opportunity.

[utefansince79]

For all we know the Ducks could win out and still slip to #5 and go to Pasadena anyway.  

To hell with losing.  Cheering for Utah to WIN on Saturday.

 

 

 

[ProudUte]

I’m with you.  Win!!!  No holding back.  We should play this game like it is the championship IMO.

[Rick]

Exactly.  If the Ducks win out ugly one can easily see an Oklahoma or the SEC loser or Ohio State jumping them.  I feel bad for Cincinnati but them being left out basically screws BYU out of New Years 6 game which would be hilarious if we end up in the Rose Bowl!  

[noneyadb]

F**k the ducks! A last second heart wrenching loss would be awesome. Rematch vs OSU please!

[Charlie]

We take football games one at a time. Like they say in pool ‘Common sense over Combinations’. We need to win each game, one at a time. Everyone else can worry about themselves, the Pac 12 conference included. Next, improve our head to head with Oregon and fine if we get to do it twice.

[RedRocks]

Yeah, but this is a numerical analysis. It is difficult to beat a 50/50 opponent two times in a row; that is assuming everything goes as planned. Statistically speaking.

However, this fails to account for the human element of college football.  If the Utes can’t win at home with all the advantages that brings, there is a much smaller probability that they will be able to win in Vegas. The team is hyped for this game. I feel like a loss here would be detrimental to the team’s energy and lead to an even worse loss in Vegas.

Why so many posts on the advantages of losing this game around here? These ideas are purely (and unrealistically) hypothetical. In no way does it benefit Utah. Period.

[Stone]

So many things can happen. Remember when all the Ducks had to do was beat ASU, and Utah was pretty much guaranteed a Rose Bowl trip? Ducks blew it. 

I could totally see the Ducks losing next week to OSU, then all this speculation about whether it would be better for Utah to lose to Oregon would be worthless.