Some Offensive Numbers

[UteThunder]

It’s generally accepted among Ute fans that A-Rod was not a good OC. I go back and forth about his abilities, but whatever. 

For the people who think Taylor is a good OC or at least an upgrade, here are some numbers that paint a much different picture.

 

Offensive Scoring PPG

2016 – 29.8

2017 – 29.5 

2018 – 19.3

 

Total Offense YPG

2016 – 430.7

2017 – 413.4

2018 – 401.0 

 

Rushing YPG

2016 – 214.0

2017 – 164.0 

2018 – 153.0

 

Passing YPG

2016 – 216.7

2017 – 249.4

2018 – 247.7

 

Sacks Against

2016 – 27

2017 – 38

2018 – 43 *projected total at our current rate

 

3rd Down Conversion Percentage

2016 – 38.3

2017 – 35.2

2018 – 38.0

 

4th Down Conversion Percentage

2016 – 59.1

2017 – 57.9

2018 – 28.5

 

Time of Possession

2016 – 33:48

2017 – 32:31

2018 – 29:30

 

Turnovers

2016 – 25

2017 – 26

2018 – 30 *projected total at our current rate; does not include the fumbled punts

 

Red Zone Scoring Percentage

2016 – 77.8

2017 – 87.3 (the difference here is due, in large part, to attempting 8 more Red Zone FGs)

2018 – 75.0 (4/4 vs Weber, 1/1 vs NIU, 1/3 vs UW)

Taylor’s first year was worse in just about every category than the guy he replaced. A guy that everyone thought sucked.

Three games into his second year, and the numbers are even worse than his first season. Granted, things could improve but would you bet on it?

I’m not arguing that A-Rod was a good OC, this is about Taylor as an OC. For the people saying “if the WRs would catch the ball” or “if not for the fumbles” . . . There were dropped passes and fumbles while A-Rod was the OC.

Did you think A-Rod would have given us a good offense if not for the drops and fumbles? Probably not. So why does Taylor get a pass when his offense is WORSE than A-Rod’s was? I know the answer, I’m just curious if anyone will admit it.

 

[Ute Bc]

That’s a great comparison of two bad/umderpe offensive coordinators 

[UteThunder]

And it’s trending in the wrong direction.

[HoosierUte]

I think the answer is that we are so sick of the carousel at OC that whoever got the job last year would be given some leeway. Prior to this year, the thought was our offensive Offense was due to the turnover at OC. Stability was the #1 thing we were looking for. If Taylor doesn’t improve this year we are right back where we started.

[UteThunder]

But we finally had stability the year before Troy was hired. A-Rod was the OC for two consecutive years and he wasn’t given leeway.

[ironman1315]

Because he had chances in the MWC days and he wasn’t very good then either.

[UteThunder]

His offenses in the MWC were two of the best offenses Whittingham has ever had. I think only 2008 was better. 

[shakeitsugaree]

I’m not arguing that A-Rod was a good OC, this is about Taylor as an OC.
So why does Taylor get a pass when his offense is WORSE than A-Rod’s was?

I’m not sure I agree with you about Taylor’s offense being worse than A-Rod’s. Stats like the ones you’ve based your opinion on don’t really tell the whole story. I recommend looking at Football Outsiders for some different takes on statistical analysis.
S&P stats, which measure efficiency and success rather than raw YPG or TOP, paint a much different picture of 2016 vs. 2017:

In 2016, S&P calculated our adjusted average points per game at 30.5, which ranked our offense 57th in FBS. Our rushing S&P+ score was 107.2, and our passing S&P+ score was 96.3. Our Success Rt+ score was 103.6. The situational “+” stats are scaled so that anything above 100 is considered above average, and anything below 100 is below average; the greater the difference from 100 represents the relative magnitude of the difference from the national average. So, in 2016 we ran the ball better than the average team, but passed more poorly than the average team.
In 2017, our offensive S&P+ was 29.7, which ranked our offense 55th in FBS; rushing S&P+ 110.9, passing S&P+ 105.8, Success Rt+ 109.8. We have improved in rushing, passing and success rate under Taylor.

Even more telling than the S&P+ scores themselves are the way they stack up against other FBS teams:

year……OffS&P+ (rank)….rushS&P+ (rank)……passS&P+ (rank)……success rt+ (rank)
2016……30.5 (57)…………….107.2 (46)……………96.3 (79)…………….103.6 (55)
2017……29.7 (55)…………….110.9 (35)…………..105.8 (44)…………….109.8 (35)
…………….+2……………………+11…………………+35…………………..+20 Change in rank 2016 v 2017

Our offense took huge strides forward in passing and success rate; these didn’t translate immediately to production, but it was the first year of a new system with personnel not recruited to run it. I didn’t include 2018’s numbers because the sample size is too small. Will things improve in 2018? I don’t know, but the trend is in that direction.

[UteThunder]

Sorry, but I don’t buy into adjusted stats. It’s like @Utah claiming that Huntley is playing great because if you adjust for his incomplete passes he would have a much higher completion percentage. Well, hypothetical stats don’t score points and they certainly don’t win games.

When it comes to sport statistics, give me raw data all day every day. I want actual production. 

[shakeitsugaree]

Not sure what you mean by ‘hypothetical’ stats – these numbers reflect actual events – and they are more predictive of outcome than the stats that you are using. Connelly does a good job of being transparent about his formula: S&P+ explained

Actual production is reflected in S&P+ stats. My comment about not translating to production was just that, for last year, the improvements in passing and success rate didn’t immediately produce more points. That could be for a lot of reasons, but can be summed up by ‘small sample size.’ Increasing our success rate as much as we did will pay dividends.

Now, the question becomes will we maintain these improvements in 2018? That is still to be determined. If our above average success rate is not maintained in 2018, then absolutely, the offense has regressed.

[User Suspended]

Yup

[UteThunder]

Ha! Not even close.

[UteThunder]

Not sure why you’re getting a thumbs down. Given the dynamics of our fanbase it’s not like it was a crazy guess.

The answer is: 249.4 (or 247.7 this year)

I’m sure people will deny it, but there is no other plausible reason. We are worse in every offensive statistical category than we were under A-Rod except for passing. And the improvement in passing doesn’t even make up for the decrease in rushing yards as our total yardage is down by 30 yards per game. At this point, I don’t know how anyone can argue Taylor is a good OC, or even an upgrade over A-Rod. But we’re slightly better at passing the football so people think Taylor is a good OC.

And you want to know the worst part? Taylor has better players to work with than A-Rod did, at least according to recruiting rankings.

[noneyadb]

ARod had Dennis Erickson mentoring him, Devontae Booker, Joe Williams, Covey, Butler-Byrd, Tim Patrick, and 4 NFL lineman and still couldn’t win the South. ARod had his chance. If anybody thought he could get the job done he’d still be here.

No idea what is going on between Harding and Taylor, but they need to get on the same page and figure out how to pass protect. If Taylor wants to throw more, fine, but at this level you better have a QB who can make the quick read, change plays when the defense knows what’s coming, complete the deep routes as well as the short ones, and an oline that can pick up a blitz. That’s not Huntley, or Harding’s specialty.