Ute Fan Optimism

[UteThunder]

If you are predicting 8 or more wins this year, please post the number of wins you think we will have. Then, post what you base your optimism on for Utah’s chances this year?

The last three years I have been very optimistic about our chances going into each season.

In 2014 I predicted 9 or 10 wins. We won 9.

In 2015 I predicted 10 or 11 wins. We won 10.

In 2016 I predicted 9 to 11 wins, and wound up talking myself into 11. We won 9.

This year, I’m just not seeing more than 7 or 8 wins. What am I missing? 

[zeous]

Hoping for 7+, prepared for less.

[Anonymous]

15 wins, because picking losses in preseason is pointless.

[ironman1315]

The ceiling for this season is 9, most likely is 7, the floor is 5.

[KiYi-Ute]

I’m predicting 8 wins with a +/- of 1 overall. Reasons I’m optimistic: defensive front seven, offense (especially red-zone) cannot be worse than last year, very well-coached team overall, special teams.

Here’s what I think:

UND: Win
BYU: Win
SJSU: Win
Arizona: Win
Stanford: Win – we match up well and a home game.
USC: Loss
ASU: Win
Oregon: Win – revenge for last season
UCLA: Toss up – their OL is bad, their run game is worse. We could make them one dimensional and pressure Rosen.
WSU: Toss up
UW: Likely loss – though we matched up with them well last year, if not for 3 blocks in the back, we could have won.
Colorado: Win

[AlohaUte]

Could go any direction this season. But I think we get 9-10 (including bowl win).

UND: Win
BYU: Toss-Up
SJSU: Win
Arizona: Win
Stanford: Toss-up.
USC: Loss
ASU: Win
Oregon: Win
UCLA: Win
WSU: Toss up
UW: Loss
Colorado: Win

[Utah]

If this team had last year’s schedule, I’d pick us to win the PAC-12. 

But, with our schedule, I think 8 wins seems about right. 

In May, I was thinking 7. 

Maybe after the BYU game I’ll push it to 9. 

[ladyinred]

I think 8-4, 9-4 after bowl.
We will lose 2 games we are ”supposed” to lose (USC and maybe Stanford), and 2 games we are not (one of the Arizona schools for example).

But we will also shock someone and steal a game we’re not supposed to.
I tend to think that will be UW. Just a hunch.

Edited to add- reasons for optimism: 1-Kyle is a kick ass coach, 2- more talent than ever.
Reasons for concern: 1- New system on offense, 2- lots of inexperience

[FtheY]

Exactly this. 

[UtahFanSir]

Lots of wins, so many wins we will be tired of winning. Huuuuge wins, big wins…

…maybe some losses, but only because of left-leaning refs.

9-4.

[Anonymous]

*bigly

[KiYi-Ute]

Pac-12 Officiating! Sad!

[UtahFanSir]

Simple. The miracle of Troy Taylor.

[St George Ute]

I have us down for 7-9 wins. I think our Defense is as good as last year overall, though our front 7 may be less experienced. I think they will improve week to week. I think our secondary is more talented than it has ever been, it’s just a matter of learning the system, making it instinctive.

As KiYi-Ute said, the offense can’t get much worse. I like what I hear from Troy Taylor, especially how the offense will be easier for the QB to make quick decisions. I like what the QBs and receivers have said about the system and about how they’re not only learning a lot but that it’s fun to play in.

We still have the best punter in the country and I’m hoping we won’t need much in the way of FGs as I’d like to see progress with TDs in the redzone.

After last season, with losing what we did, I thought we’d be lucky to make it to a bowl game this season. After some of the pickups and the change from ARod to Taylor, I’m more optimistic.

I don’t think we’ll win the South, that’s USC’s to lose, but I do think we’ll finish 2nd in the division and will end up playing in either the Alamo or Holiday bowl.

And yes, I’ll admit to wearing red goggles. I put them on every year before the season starts. They go with all the other Utes gear I wear. 🙂

[ironman1315]

Add to the fact we have a legitimate playmaker at WR and a backfield reported to be better than last year and we got some good stuff going.

[St George Ute]

I really liked this article about our secondary: SLTrib

I’m cautiously optimistic about Carrington. I think he has the potential to be our best receiver. I just hope he lives up to the hype, stays out of trouble, and really puts in the effort every game, every play.

I liked what we saw from Shyne and Moss last year and watching DHC in the Spring game was also encouraging.

I’m just excited to see what they put on the field this year. I’m especially excited about the offense. Can’t wait!!!

28 DAYS!!!

[shakeitsugaree]

Hello everyone,

First time poster, long time Ute fan. I like this site a lot! I’ll take the bait here, and give you my “full homer” win predictions, but I must say, UteThunder – I think you should also post a breakdown on how you think Utah gets to 7 wins (and where the losses happen).

UND: win – sorry geaux-sioux
TDS: win – we’re the better team
SJSU: win – see above
Zona: win – there are serious issues regarding injuries, depth and coaching with this team. Not sure RichRod keeps his job.
Furd: win – coming off a bye, at home, and we just match up well with these guys. I think their offense will struggle this year.
SC: loss – this team looks the part of the Pac12 south champion, let’s see if they will actually make it happen; not sure I believe they will. I see this game as the decisive game in the south.
ASU: win – Tempe has issues similar to those in Tucson, and I just don’t see a lot of good happening for the Devils this year.
Ducks: win – uncertainty regarding the first year in a new regime, and, we need to wash the taste of last year’s loss out of our collective mouths.
UCLA: win – Rosen will get his yards, and they will score, but I like Utah at home here.
WSU: win – Again, it’s in SLC, and I think our O will be > their D.
UW: loss – but it will be a hell of a game.
Buffs: win – we get them in SLC, and I don’t know if MacIntyre will be able to reload right away.

There ya go, 10 wins, easy peasy! Quid pro quo, Utethunder?

[KiYi-Ute]

Welcome to the board! Always good to see a new face.

[UteThunder]

Sorry for getting back to this thread so late after starting it, but that’s life. Good thoughts by everyone.

I have a hard time seeing us win more than 8 regular season games and would say 7 is our most likely outcome.

UND – Win

BYU – Tossup. I originally had this as a loss, but it is a rivalry game and other more optimistic fans than myself seem to think we have a clear talent advantage so I have amended my pick to a tossup.

SJSU – Win

Arizona – Win

Stanford – Tossup. I had this as a loss too, but with the benefit of the bye week to prepare for them, plus having them in SLC, plus we seem to match up with them really well, maybe we can nab a W here.

USC – Loss

ASU – Win

Oregon – Loss

UCLA – Win

WSU – Win

Washington – Loss

Colorado – Win

If we lose the tossups, that’s 7-5. Split them and it’s 8-4. Our ceiling is 9-3 if we somehow pull off both of the tossups but I don’t see that happening.

My big hangups for this season are the turnover on OL and in the secondary, we lost Joe Williams who was basically our entire offense last year, and we are installing a new offense under a new OC. All of that just seems like a lot to overcome with this schedule.

My one caveat to my picks is this: If Taylor is able to successfully transform our offense right out of the gate like he did with EWU, then all bets are off and the sky is the limit. 

[shakeitsugaree]

Cool, thanks for your thoughts.

I think it’s interesting that you have the game at Autzen as a ‘hard’ loss, instead of a tossup. Care to elaborate?

I think it’s reasonable to categorize the TDS and Furd games as tossups.

What are the chances that the iPhone offense is everything we hope it will be, which I define as follows: easily installed (meaning, all of our personnel are up to speed by conference play), creative/difficult to defend/not predictable, and most importantly is effective at scoring touchdowns? EWU was already an offensive juggernaut before Taylor got there, but one can’t deny his instant success there, so ….

I guess I am feeling more optimistic than I have in years past, but, I won’t be surprised if there are growing pains in the next few seasons.

What do you think?

[UteThunder]

I have Oregon as a loss because it is a road game in one of the toughest environments to play in and I expect Oregon to rebound under their new coach and be much better than last year.

E. Washington has typically been an offensive juggernaut but the year prior to Taylor taking over, I believe they passed for just over 3,000 yards. Under Taylor they passed for 5,400 yards while still rushing for 1,800. If he can increase our passing total by even just 1,000 yards while maintaining our rushing attack like that, then I think we will win both of my tossups(BYU, Stanford) as well as Oregon and the USC & Washington games move from losses to tossups.

My hopes for Taylor actually doing that though are quite low. We have been burned by too many “the new offense is gonna be awesome” type comments with each of the last several OCs.

[shakeitsugaree]

If he can increase our passing total by even just 1,000 yards while maintaining our rushing attack like that, then I think we will win both of my tossups(BYU, Stanford) as well as Oregon and the USC & Washington games move from losses to tossups.

[Tony (admin)]

Welcome.

[SkinyUte]

I’m still in “wait and see” mode, but I realistically think that this is probably an 8 win season. The offense will (hopefully) take a few steps forward, but I think the defense is likely to take a few steps back. I think we lose at SC and Washington, drop a close one to one of Stanford/Oregon/CU, then drop a WTF game somewhere along the line to a team we have no business losing to. We seem to have one of those every year (Cal last year, AZ the year before, etc.), and I’ll plan on it until I see otherwise.

Given the schedule, I think 8 wins would still be a hell of a season.

[UTE98]

I just rewatched the 2014 Stanford game, Pac12 in 60 on a flight today, and we were absolutely awful on offense in that game. We scored 20 points. 7 in regulation.

If our offense improves but even 5-6 points a game we can get to 8 wins. If the offense improves by 7-9 points a game I think we’re looking at 9-10 wins. The defense has never been the problem. Yes we’ve lost some guys from last year, but we lost to Washington, a great team last year, by a punt return aided by three blocking in the back calls. Having a Ray Guy winner as a punter helps flip the field position, if we improve our scoring, we’re going to really good. Not great, but really good.

[ladyinred]

@shakeit – nice to see you here, please tell utahutedave over at blocku to come on here if you think of it. He is an entertaining one.

@thunder, By all means, stick with your picks. It will be sweeter then to say I told you so. 😜.

I share your concern about the OL. But I have to disagree about the Joe Williams statement. I loved watching Joe, but let’s not forget so quickly that he was really only in half the games. He may have been in a uniform the first 2, but he was more of a detriment in those games. Yes, he racked up a s**t ton of numbers in the games he played after “retirement”, but he was also getting almost all the carries as the others were injured. We got to, what was it 5-1, including USC, without his services really. Yes, he probably singlehandedly won us the UCLA game, he was very good against UW, and good against the other teams. But the reason, I think, why we ultimately lost the games we did was due to being below average in the passing game, and I think carrington puts a temporary bandaid potentially on that situation for this year at least.

[shakeitsugaree]

Hey lady! Thanks for the welcome!

[Tony (admin)]

Good point @ladyinred please tell all your friends to come over and talk Utes.

[Tony (admin)]

Based on our brutal schedule I think 7 wins is actually a good season.  8 is great.  9 is dreamland. 

[Matthew Thomas Castleton]

I say 10-2 with our only two losses @ USC and @ Washington.

[noneyadb]

Your missing that in every game last year Utah played like crap, was injury riddled, and STILL had the chance to win, or outright won every game.

This year with a better secondary, linebackers, defensive line, receivers, OC, and senior QB, Utah’s going to be a dark horse. Comes down to the o-line. If they can create some pockets and give Williams time to throw Utah is going to be deadly.

Williams for Heisman. 15-0.

[leftyjace]

You guys are all pansies. I’m with noneyadb.

This will be our 2nd season of reload, not rebuild. Talent is everywhere and getting better every recruitment cycle.

We are going to have a new offense that no one in FBS has ever seen before, and it’s going to freak people out because Taylor already has plays made to replace the ones people prepare for from the first few games. Yes, the plays are so awesome that they inherently stick in the memories of the players who will never forget a huge playbook. It’s magic. It’s Taylor magic.

Our quarterbacks and wide receivers will enter the light and become demi-gods.

Our defense will become as the Great Wall of China. Again.

Our special teams will become special…. again. And again. From now until the end of time.

Based on all that…

We will have 16 wins this season.

Why?

Because after we crush everyone including in the National Championship, the Cleveland Browns will challenge us to a game to try to prove a point but they will find out what it means to be on the end of the fury of the Taylor.

[CyclingUte]

Whenever I think we’re going to have a down season, they surprise me. Usually it’s by winning a game I didn’t think we could pull of, or they lose a game we should have locked down (ORE, CAL, COL).

ND-Win, by a large margin, but not as large as the people want. The playbook will consist of one page since we’ll be saving most of it for next week.
BYU-Win, we’ll win the scoreboard, but somehow byu will win the moral victory, as they always do. I used to hate that this game was at the beginning of the season, but I’ve changed. I’m glad it’s at the front so we can get it out of the way, we can dine off BYU schadenfreude as they pile up wins from their bottom-dwelling G5 schedule and we can focus on our true rivals, Colorado.
SJST- Win, a weird game, suffering from some post byu hangover. For whatever reason our team occasionally struggles and comes out sluggish. I hope it’s this game because I hate losing to:
Arizona-toss up that comes down a win. I have this irrational hatred of the AZ schools. Probably because I know we’re better than they are, but they usually give us fits. And I hate Rich Rod ever since he left WVU. His brother was my HS swim coach, and he was p**sed when he didn’t get picked up for his staff, and we suffered for it in the pool.
Stanford- Loss. Tough one to call. Shaw is amazing in his consistency, but we match up well with him. I think our O line finally succumbs, and our reliance on the kicking game and a solid D are our undoing this time.
USC- Loss. PAC 12 Refs want to make sure the flagship program of the PAC12 isn’t left out of the playoffs, and Darnold’s Heisman candidacy gets more fuel as he puts on a gutsy performance to pull out a win.
AZ ST- Win, Utah comes roaring back, hurt feelings are taken out on the Sun Devils, Todd Graham is officially on the hot seat. It’s a race to see who gets fired first, Graham or Rich Rod.
ORE- Win, Darrington puts the nail in the coffin amid lots of DUI signs, after scoring the opening, as well as the final TD he walks up to the ORE Student section and puts a finger to his lips, shushing them.
UCLA- Win, not even Rosen can save them, as our young secondary steps up with a huge game, defense wins this one
WA ST, win, in a wild affair between the pirate king and Taylor as the young challenger comes up big with some gutsy calls that leaves Whitt wearing the oxygen mask.
WASH- Loss, Peterson is determined to head back to the playoffs and the Utes got in the way.
COL- Win, sweet, sweet revenge against our true rivals. They’d better go back to being a skiing school, because Utah will make sure they’re never a football school again.