First, AP voters are dumb. See 1984. They like a story. And an underdog.
Second, if you put in the conference champs, that only leaves three spots open for a G5 to get in. And if the playoffs expanded, the reality is, it would expand under rules from the people who created the current playoff, which is to say, they would not be kind to G5 teams. They’d have a committee, like now, pick the final three teams and it would most likely be the P5 champs plus the three highest ranked teams left.
In all the years of the CFP rankings, the highest a G5 has finished the season is: 2017 had #12 UCF, who was undefeated. 2016 had #15 Western Michigan 13-0. 2015 had #18 Houston 12-1. 2014 had #20 Boise St with 11-2 record.
And if you have a committee ranking teams and not AP writers like Wilner who is a mess with his ballot, you have a much more researched ranking system.
And they will look at G5 teams the same way I looked at Utah, and NO G5 team will ever have a resume that can compete with a P5 school. Even a two loss P5 school. And if they did, then UCF and Western Michigan would not have been ranked so low.
In 2017, an 8 team playoff would look like this: Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, USC as the champs. Then at larges would be: Alabama, Wisconsin, Auburn. The runners up would be (in order): Penn St, Miami, Washington, THEN UCF. Not even close to the playoffs.
In 2016, an 8 team playoff would look like this: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Washington, Oklahoma. Then at larges would be: Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin. The runners up would be (in order): USC, Colorado, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Auburn THEN Western Michigan. Not even close to the playoffs.
What about a brand name G5, like Boise State or Houston? Could they get higher?
In 2014, Boise didn’t enter the CFP until the last few weeks of the season and were ranked with two losses next to a 4 loss Utah team. That’s how they view P5 vs G5.
In 2015, Houston was 8-0. They were ranked #25. They went 9-0 (#24), 10-0 (#19), loss. So, even at 10-0, they had NO SHOT at the playoffs.
Same for the remaining years. No G5 has even sniffed the playoffs. Most rankings have G5 teams around other teams with +2 losses.
So, in order for a G5 to make the playoffs it would need to be undefeated and need all at larges to have at least three losses and most likely four.
And that ain’t never gonna happen. IF you had an 8 team playoff and IF an 3 or 4 loss team would be in, it would because they won their conference, which means a 1 or 2 loss team would be waiting to be taken as an at large team, which would make it even harder for a G5 to get in.
It won’t happen and it shouldn’t happen.
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