Where does Utah fit?

[Perkus]

If the PAC8/10/12/14 tanks, where does Utah fit? I struggle to see a perfect landing spot. Before we discuss the options, let’s eliminate the pipe dream. Utah isn’t going to go to the SEC, ever.

Now let’s take a look. I know we want to believe Utah may seem like a fit in the BIG10. This doesn’t seem to be the case. BIG10 schools have on average 25% larger enrollments, 25% higher sports revenues, and on average 4x larger endowments than Utah (all these numbers are 2022 numbers, btw). Utah’s just not a large enough institution for the BIG10 to add, even with AAU membership. Maybe in a decade or so as the State continues to grow at the earliest.

Next is joining the BIG12. All the reasons Utah doesn’t fit the BIG10 are opposite for Utah not fitting the Big12. Utah has on average a 16% greater revenue, larger enrollment, and similar size endowment as the original Big12 schools. Yet, only one Big12 school is an AAU member, Kansas. Does the AAU thing actually matter? I don’t know. It seems silly that research would impact sports.

The last option would be the broken up PAC teams bring in enough MWC, Conf USA, and other teams to form a new watered down conference. Of these options it is clear Utah joining the Big12 is our best option with implosion.

However, if the PAC doesn’t implode staying is their best bet, even if the media money is down. Because we all know the true money in an athletics department comes from ticket sales and donor funds. As long as Utah stays competitive those revenue generators will continue to grow, even if our new TV deal is lackluster. Anyone have any thoughts?

[EagleMountainUte]

Paragraphs my guy. Paragraphs. 

[Perkus]

Done.

[Central Coast Ute]

A couple thoughts:

1. Yes research does matter for athletic conferences. The Ivy League decided that a long time ago. Presidents like to sit at the same table as presidents from prestigious academic universities, even if it’s as a member of an athletic conference.

2. It’s all about the the almighty dollar. What the PAC will become is already a watered down version of its former self. If they add SDSU and SMU, that’s the same as adding more MWC teams and if the money is the same or close to the BIG 12, you stay. Why travel to Florida and West Virginia when you can travel to California and Texas? Going to the big 12 is the last option.

[Perkus]

My thought was if BIG10 brings in Washington and Oregon. Then the PAC would have to add 4 teams. Or six if Arizona and Colorado leave. 

[Utesby1]

If the Pac-12 loses Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Colorado, we can add whatever schools we want and it won’t matter. We will be a slightly more dignified version of of the Mountain West Conference. Argh.

[RedRocks]

I personally hope the PAC12 survives with its current members, plus one or two more. Hopefully USC and UCLA regret their move and come back…

Other than that, I would hope the BIG10 decides it wants to get BIG and swallow more of the western US to create a better travel situation for UCLA and USC. May be a long shot for Utah, but it seems like they are at least somewhere on the table: A link to Reddit(CFB) with a link to Twitter for a Tweet from some guy.

Otherwise, I guess the Big12.

[Waybackutefan]

Well I consulted my impecable source, my Magic 8 Ball and it said, cannot predict now, so I asked again it said ask again later. 

Like my mom was fond of saying “hard telling not knowing”.

J/K down arrow fan boys, no one, I mean no one outside of the powers that be knows what the outcome is at this point, and even they probably have a lot of room for error. 

My guess is the PAC patches together enough revenue/exposure to keep the remaining 10 schools in the conference for the foreseeable future. 

[UtesRule]

Not worried at all. Will happen when it does. There’s no rush.

[12PAC]

So I guess we have no insiders in this area? ONLYU is just awesome, but has been noticeably quiet on these matters. And the amount of misinformation on the topic (see Cougarboard and post above ^) is a perfect example of how difficult it is to parse through the information BS these days. 

And the conference has done an amazing job staying quiet- arguably to its detrimet, considering the B12 destabilization campaign. 

So- we know nothing? Anyone? Please get this deal done. I agree with Jon Wilner- the longer this goes, the worse it feels. 

[Perkus]

What misinformation does my post present? 

[12PAC]

Definitely not talking about your post, just the interwebs generally, and the difficulty in finding accuracy in a sea of bs. 

[12PAC]

I see why my post was confusing. Was specifically referencing ProudUtes post above about cougarboard antics. 

[Onlyu]

Kind of quiet so don’t jump on as much right now.

All I will say is don’t believe everything you read or hear on the local radio show.

I’m fairly bullish on Utah’s position when it’s all said and done (5-6 years). I expect the program to be in the top 25 for the foreseeable future and that helps but more importantly our research $, academic rank/standing, enrollment and geo/media market will all improve during that time and unless the number is 40ish between 2 conferences (I don’t see that as a realistic possibility based on what I’ve been told) I think we find a way in.

I personally put the number around 48 and we are a virtual lock to be included in 5 years time.

I’m also fairly confident that the media deal surpasses the Big12’s deal but not by an amount that makes a huge difference. At the end of the day all you’re trying to do is stay productive for the next 5 years. That’s really the only time table that matters to me.

[12PAC]

Thanks for the input. Guess we have to view this as the long game. 

[Utesby1]

I think that the only way we can have confidence that we will be in is for the conferences to find a way to get rid of the deadweights. For example, if Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt, USF, etc. are out then we will be in.

[PhiladelphiaUte]

AAU membership doesn’t matter in the Big 12.  They’re not exactly a “research” oriented confederation of institutions.

What does matter to the Big 12 however, is our brand, numerous national rankings, and — despite cougar claims to the contrary — the SLC/Utah market.

Utah’s best case scenarios are — in order…

1.  Join the BigTen

2.  Remain in a Pac-12 conference that includes all remaining members.  I couldn’t care less if we do-or-do-not add SDSU and SMU, just so long as all remaining 10 schools remain.

3.  If the BigTen and/or SEC manage to break up the existing ACC GoR, align with the leftover ACC programs.  Not in an “alliance” fashion, but rather in a “merger” of our two conferences, establishing an “East” and “West” division, and a CCG in the Home arena of the higher seeded team (Las Vegas for the West, and either Charlotte or Atlanta for the East).

4.  Bite the bullet and join the Big 12.

There’s no need for a 5th option as our options won’t fall past #4.

[DataUte]

I generally agree but I’d switch #1 and #2. I think being in the B1G adds a ton more travel, esp. for non-revenue sports. I think the academic fit is still with either PAC or B1G, but staying more regionally west coast is more advantageous.

I would probably put #1, stay in PAC (also don’t care if 10 or add SDSU, SMU, Tulane, or Rice), USC/UCLA come back after 5 years.

I agree with #3 and #4 but #3 would create the same travel challenges as B1G, so fine for football with 6 road games, but tought for other sports.