If we lose to UW we are 4-2 which means that if we win out going 7-2 we would win all tie breakers with any other team that could also get to 7-2. USC can win out and get to 7-2 but we beat them so we win that tie. If both USC and colo get to 7-2 we still win that tie breaker since we own the best record against the teams in a 3 way tie (2-0 vs USC would be 1-1 and colo would be 0-2).
Winning against UW is an uphill task but in the end even with a loss the utes still have a lot to look forward and can still have a chance to get to the rose bowl, win the south and get to the p12 champ game.
Utah (4-1) remaining sched
vs UW
at ASU
vs oregon
at colorado
USC (3-2) remaining sched
vs cal
vs oregon
at wash
at UCLA
vs ND
Colorado (4-1) sched
vs UCLA
at UA
vs WSU
vs utah
Utah’s best possible outcome is 8-1 which would win the south.
If Utah goes 7-2 with losses to UW they win the south.
If Utah goes 7-2 with losses to Colorado they would win the south only if colorado loses 2 another game.
If Utah goes 6-3 with losses to any combo of UW/UO/asu they could still win the south but colorado would need to lose one more game and USC would need to lose one more game.
USC’s best possible outcome is 7-2. They would need utah to lose 2 more games and colorado to lose one more game in order for this record to win the south.
If USC loses another game, 6-3, they can win the tie breaker with colorado if those teams also finish 6-3 but not utah at 6-3. Also any 3 way tie at 6-3 with utah would likely mean that usc cannot win the tie breaker as long as utah is 1-1 against the other 6-3 tie members. If all the other teams are 1-1 in a 6-3 tie it goes to south record which we have a lead in right now since we don’t have a south loss yet.
Colorado can also win out and go 8-1 which would win the south.
If colo goes 7-2 with the other loss to utah they would need utah to lose 2 more.
If colo goes 7-2 with the other loss to any other of the 3 teams left and beats utah then they win the south.
If colorado goes 6-3 with losses to any combo of ucla/ua/wsu and still beats utah they will have the tie breaker at 6-3. If USC gets to 6-3 with utah/colo and colo beat utah every one would be 1-1 against each other and it would go to the south record which is too complex at this point to sort out but right now that is leaning in utahs favor to win because we do not have a south loss yet.
ASU/UA/UCLA are essentially eliminated from winning the south. ASU has a very remote chance of winning but would have to have colorado and utah both go 1-3 in the final 4 games which would be hard to do.
If we are to win the south at 6-3 the best outcome for that is to lose to wash/oregon and beat colorado/asu. If we are going to lose to colorado or ASU its better to lose ASU right now.
Realistically this years winner will probably be 6-3 and in a tiebreaker situation, similar to last year we need to beat the other teams that are going to get in the tiebreaker.
Its starting to look very much like a the last game of the year will be for the south between UTah and colorado. Utah will likely be favored to win the ASU and oregon games but will be the underdog in the UW and colorado games. Colorado will be favored in all their remaining games except WSU. Even if WSU beats colorado and we lose UW the final game of the year will still determine the south if both teams going 2-1 leading up to that final game.
.
Loading ...
