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  • Ute Fan Board

    Utah
    5

    Utah's Schedule

    I’ve always said there are three things to look at when predicting a team’s record (in order of most important to least):

    1 – SOS. Who do they play, when do they play them, and who does their opponent play before them?
    2 – Returning OL. QB is important and can cover a lot of sins. OL makes everyone look good. A great QB can make you good. A great OL can make a bunch of mediocre players look great. If you can have an average QB and great OL or great QB with average OL, take the great OL every time.
    3 – Can your coach win big games
    4 – Returning players

    Let’s skip #1 for a minute. Utah will have one of the most experienced OL’s in the country this fall. That is a great checkmark for #2. Our coach can win big games and is one of the best in business. And we return basically everyone from last year.

    So, #2-4 set us up nicely for a great season. The biggest question is just schedule. And ours is tough.

    Let’s look at it:

    Week 1: Weber State: A very good FCS team. We should win this easily. Most likely won’t be the 70-3 drubbing we recently gave them, but I’d expect a 45+ to 17 or less game.

    Week 2: at Northern Illinois – This game has a purpose. I know everyone has been whining about this game for a long time, but smarter minds than us have scheduled this game. Why? It’s a game that we win 99 out of 100 times. It’s on the road. BUT, it’s not a pushover either. We will have to be focused, we will have to play a clean game to win. It gets the team on the road, it is a game that will make the work, but it is very easily winnable.

    Week 3: Washington Huskies – This game is in a GREAT spot. Why? Because this game really doesn’t matter. Of course, it would be great to win. Of course, losing isn’t a great way to start the season out. BUT, Washington is damn good. Hopefully they will already have a win over Auburn. And if we lose, no big deal, as long as we show well. And we have the next week off, so it’s a great game to see where you stand, then go and fix issues in the bye week.

    Week 4: Bye Week

    Week 5: at WSU. They have USC the week before we play them. We have a bye week. Their QB will be brand spanking new. This will be a tough year for WSU. Leach wins 10+ games, then misses a bowl. I think WSU will be around 6 wins this year. Advantage: Utah. Bye week before vs WSU playing USC before.

    Week 6: at Stanford. This is our first HUGE game this year. Look at our schedule before: Bye week, WSU. Look at Stanford’s: SDSU, USC, UC Davis, @Oregon, @ND, Utah, bye week. While a tough game, we get the scheduling break here. That is a grueling 7 game start to the season for Stanford. They will be worn down, tired and maybe peeking forward to that sweet, sweet bye week after our game. Advantage Utah.

    Week 7: Arizona. Good game for us. This is a game we should win. Arizona has USC and Cal before us. We have WSU and Stanford. Pretty even actually. Wash.

    Week 8: USC. This game is tough. This is a must win game. USC has bye week, Colorado and then us. We have WSU, Stanford, Arizona. Not a huge advantage for USC, but an advantage. No advantage the following week as USC has ASU, who should be a dumpster fire. Advantage USC.

    Week 9: @UCLA. This is another tough game. Arizona, USC, UCLA. Tough stretch. The good news is UCLA will have had a tough road as well: Washington, Cal, Arizona, Utah. Not as tough as us though. Advantage: UCLA.

    Week 10: @ASU. This game…big time advantage us. I almost feel bad for Herm Edwards. Stanford, USC, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona. Good luck with that. They might not even show up. ha ha. Advantage Utah.

    Week 11: Oregon. Arizona, UCLA, Utah. Compared to USC, UCLA, ASU. Tough matchup for us. We have the better coach, the game is at home. Oregon is an enigma to me. I have no idea what to expect. Talent wise, they are the top half of the conference. Coach wise, they are the bottom half. I could see them being 7-2 or 3-6 at this point. Advantage Oregon.

    Week 12: @Colorado. Advantage Colorado at first glance. BUT, we are just better than they are. There aren’t a lot of games where we are just more talented than the other team, but this is one of them. If we limit TO’s, it’s a win. So, Advantage Colorado but it not really mattering much.

    Week 13: BYU. This is such a stupid place to schedule this game. It’s just dumb. It does nothing. BYU will have had three weeks to prepare. So, advantage Utah. BUT, the good news is, we are much, much better than they are. I don’t know if they have a player on their team that would crack the two deep on Utah’s roster. Talent wise, Northern Illinois is better. BUT, end of the year, they’ve had three weeks to prepare, we are coming off the grind of the PAC-12 schedule, makes this game closer. We should win this game by 21 or more. We probably win by 10.

  • Utah

    TLDR:

    When predicting wins and losses, look at the schedule. In Utah’s schedule they have the advantage schedule wise in 6 games: Weber State, Northern Illinois, WSU, Stanford, Arizona, ASU. We have the disadvantage in three games: USC, UCLA, Oregon. And three games are a wash: Washington, Colorado, BYU.

    • RedLine
      1

      Legit metric but previous game doesn’t take into consideration team mentality.  ASU for example plays Stanford and USC before us.  A close game against USC or Stanford, they might have their gears in overdrive for a win against Utah even if those games were loses.  Or might be giving up on the season if the loses were very uncompetitive. 

      Schedule definitely plays a role for win-loss prediction, but doesn’t always explain the picture perfectly.  Some teams come out fired up after loses, some are flat after big wins.    

      • Utah
        2

        I see what you are saying, but football is a game of attrition. Look at USC a couple years ago vs Alabama, Stanford and us. It’s just too hard to win those three games in four weeks. 

        Even if ASU beats Stanford and USC, they will lose to us. That game, like the USC game a few years ago, is almost a guaranteed win. No football team can play a three week stretch like that and win. 

        Even Alabama never has a three week stretch like that. 

        • RedLine

          Alabama, Stanford, Utah in a row.  Good luck.  Remember looking at their schedule with wide eyes.  I think that’s why the is PAC unique.  SEC, B10, B12, you know for the most part the type of ball you’re getting into. PAC12 you get hand in the dirt games one week and air raid the next. 

    • ladyinred
      4

      The tds game is a wash, as in we’re going to wash our asses with them?

      • Utah
        3

        That game is so stupidly scheduled. They have three weeks off before us. We have real games before that. 

        What happens if we go into that game having won the south? That’s a trap game if there ever was one. It’s a no win situation for Utah. 

        Terrible idea to schedule that game. How’s we like a shot at the playoffs coming down to beating those asshats? Argh. That game just sucks. 

        • ladyinred
          2

          It is a trap game scenario, yes, but in all seriousness i think could be a 54-10 type game. Last game of the year, at RES, crowd will be pumped, tds is still a god awful team. Even with injuries mounting by then, Utes win by 2 TD’s min. 

        • BattleGroundUte
          3

          Dumbest thing Chris Hill has ever agreed to ever. I know there was some push from the conference. P12 conference is stupid as well. They really have been doing a great disservice to the conference as a whole lately. 

          • ladyinred
            1

            I don’t have a problem with having a last game of the year vs. a rival, that’s rivalry week anyway. But the problem is that our rival is a program in a downward trajectory that it is hurting our sos to play this game. 

            • Tony
              9

              Our rival is USC

              • BattleGroundUte
                3 1

                Like or not that is who everyone measures themselves against in the PAC. USC doesn’t view us that way at all. 

                • Tony
                  4

                  We may not be theirs, yet.

                • ladyinred
                  2

                  They would say, get in line.
                  But in all actuality, Utah does have what it takes to wreck a dream season for them.

                • Rick

                  They don’t have a rival in the Pac-12.  Their rival is Notre Dame.  Ask any serioud Trojan fan.

              • RedLine
                1

                Our rival is USC

                USC fanbase doesn’t see it that way but always expects a competitive game and doesn’t look past us.  Care much more about the result of SC than BYU.  

                • RedLine

                  Return of the double post.  

                • Tony
                  1

                  NOooooooO!!!!!! How did you do it?

                • RedLine

                  Haha, dude I have no clue.  Desktop set up when it happened,  chrome extensions and ad block.  Nothing fancy on the way the post is sent. 

        • rbmw263
          4

          We should rest players for the byu game. lol

          • BattleGroundUte
            2 1

            So let’s say they clinch up the South against Colorado. How pointless is that TDS game?  Right before the Championship game?  It just makes my head spin and how stupid it was to schedule a useless game that late. 

            Makes me angry so very angry. 

            • Tony

              So beating them with the second string would be fun.

              • rbmw263

                Tuttle and shyne would roll them over 

                • BattleGroundUte

                  Burn Tuttles redshirt for those s**tbirds?

  • BattleGroundUte
    2

    I hate where the bye week is and I have already talked about the location of the BYU game. Friday night games suck.

    Pro: Love where some of the other games are. Washington early is nice. Where the games land really don’t bother me. 

  • Tony
    1

    I don’t think you’re factoring in the effect of a loss to Washington on the morale of the team. I don’t like the placement of the game after having only two pre-season games to prepare for the pac-12 season.

    • Utah
      2

      Even if we lose to Washington, we have a bye and then WSU. Our secondary is too good for that team and Hercules was amazing. He single handily made that defense work. 

      And WSU lost their DC. They will take a big step back this year. 

      I think we will be ready for Stanford, win or lose vs Washington. 

      • BattleGroundUte
        2

        No Hercules also. 

        • Utah
          2

          Yup. But, to be fair to me, I’d did mention him above. 😉

          • BattleGroundUte
            1

            Yeah I saw that after. Reading comp fail. But mentioning him twice is valuable. I am sure Taylor and Harding had nightmares for months. 

          • ironman1315
            7 1

            So what you’re saying is that our O-line won’t have the herculean task of containing Matafa anymore?

            • ironman1315
              5

              Screw you thumbs downer that joke was so golden Midas had to have touched it.

              • FtheY
                1

                I’m with you, ironman. That joke was money. I upvoted it. 

            • Utah
              2

              Only in practice. 

  • PlainsUte
    2

    The Utes played Washington very close last year in Seattle; heartbreaking loss, in fact.

    Not sure why why, at home, we’d be thinking this could be a loss for the Utes to regroup and learn from.

    The tough stretch Weeks 7-11 will define the season.

    • BattleGroundUte
      7

      I think Utah wins against Washington don’t know why. 

      • Tony
        5

        I approve this message.

        • BattleGroundUte
          1

          Well it isn’t very convincing. I haven’t been the best when it comes to Peterson vs Whitt. I just like Utah’s chances for some weird reason. 

          • Utah
            6

            Huntley freaking carved up Washington last year. If he can throw like he did against them all year, we are in for a treat. If he can throw like that and hand the ball off, we will have a top 3 Utah QB of all time. He was lights out that game. 

            I could easily see us winning that game. 

            • BattleGroundUte
              2

              Rushing statistics for that game are what leap out at me.  

              So Hans in that video interview up there with Taylor asked again what designed runs are there for Huntley.  Taylor still said between 7-8 or something.  I am still not happy with that.  I personally would prefer design Huntley runs around the 3-4 range.  Especially with Shyne and Moss this season, I don’t see the point at all to keep 7-8 designed run plays a game in the playbook.  Now doesn’t mean you eliminate that because you allow that dynamic running ability to be used when he makes the decision on a broken play or something.  

      • ladyinred
        5

        We will. I already called it. It’s going to be my birthday present, that’s why.