• hUper replied to the topic Predicting the line in the forum Pac-12 6 days, 17 hours ago

    I think it opens at -6 and shifts to -7, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it opens higher as realistically USC should be heavily favored.

  • hUper replied to the topic Runnin’ Utes Lose in the forum Basketball (Men) 1 week, 2 days ago

    Rolly Wooster, who is a poor-shooting turnover machine

    That’s what Saunders is too and I would say even more of a TO machine. He’s shooting 33% (12% 3pt) and his A/TO ratio is almost -2. He’s quick, but plays wild/out of control. In his short Miss St stint he had multiple wtf plays. I can’t blame Smith for yanking him. Even when Worster fouled…[Read more]

  • hUper replied to the topic Runnin’ Utes Lose in the forum Basketball (Men) 1 week, 3 days ago

    In these two games we were -22 TO’s (-19 steals).
    This team plays hard but it’s obvious they are substantially lacking in talent and athleticism.
    Our true bigs are slow and soft. Keita is an exception, but he is extremely raw.
    We have no decent 3pt shooters other than Madsen. Worster, Stefanovic and Saunders are pathetic shooters for guards.…[Read more]

  • “Why add degree of difficulty when you’ve got around a 95% chance of tying the game?”

    Because playing to extend the game favors the superior team, which was clearly OSU at that point. With the way the play was trending, Utah was essentially toast after losing Rising and OSU scoring the go-ahead TD. Mad respect for Barnes, but realistically that T…[Read more]

  • hUper changed their profile picture 11 months ago

  • I get the value of base analytics, but I think there are clearly cases when there are unique extenuating factors that are significant and the analytics can’t account for. As such, the base analytics have their limitations and there are cases when subjective human assessment and override would be appropriate. I think more subjective assessment was…[Read more]

  • “Isn’t that exactly what the analytics are doing? And your initial post implies that the analytics told Whitt that going for 1 was more favorable.”

    There are sometimes unique factors that the computational analytics may not be able to account for (e.g. QB situation, floundering defense, bad kicker) and thus some subjective human assessment and o…[Read more]

  • Anyone that is super successful in any career minimizes emotional decisions while allowing their extensive experience to allow for flexibility. This is why Whitt has a $4M salary. And no one in this group is likely to have that salary. (There is still the possibility that OnlyU is Whitt 🤪).

    Sorry, but this is very flawed reasoning. Sustained…[Read more]

  • Yes, we were unfavored no matter what considering our QB situation and floundering defense, but you still have to go with your best possible chance to win, which I think would have been to go for 2. See my breakdown of scenarios in my other reply.

  • So here were the most likely possible scenarios to weigh:

    1. Go for 1:
    > 1a. OSU scores with no/nominal time left; or OSU scores TD quickly and Utah gets one more possession with minimal time left, having to go the length of the field with a minimal-experience QB.
    > 1b. Utah defense holds and forces OT, in which OSU would then be heavily…[Read more]

  • hUper changed their profile picture 11 months ago

  • My thinking when Utah was driving for the tying TD was to go for 2 thinking should it go to OT, OSU would have been massively favored (I think at least 80%) considering our QB situation and complete inability to stop their offense. Going for 2 would’ve been at worst 50-50 for us at least taking the lead – I think much better odds of potentially…[Read more]

  • hUper became a registered member 11 months ago