BYU and Big 12 recruiting

[BD]

There is a link on Cougarboard which links to the thread here on UteHub about Kingley Suamataia probably transferring to
BYU- making fun of Ute fans panicking because Kingsley will probably end up at BYU.

https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=27283680

Certainly BYU has won a few nice transfers their way, and a few recruits have committed due to the massive gift that Covid gave them. And it would be naive to think that BYU won’t improve their recruiting once in the Big 12. So, no, I am not burying my head in the sand.

But am I even remotely close to panicking like all of Cougarboard fantasizes? Not even remotely. Here’s why:

Here is BYU’s current recruiting class:
https://247sports.com/college/byu/Season/2022-Football/Commits/

Their average is 0.8324, which compared to the entire Big 12 this year, puts BYU currently at rock bottom in the Big 12 this year in recruiting. While Utah’s recruiting class this year averages 0.8700. That is still a significant gap.

Looking at it close, if you take out Texas and Oklahoma, the highest average recruiting ranking for this year so far is West Virginia, at 0.8731, just slightly above Utah now. Cincinnati is at 85.86, and I didn’t bother to look up the other programs joining the Big 12.

Looking at a full year of recruiting for last year, the highest ranking of Big 12 (excluding Texas and Oklahoma) was TCU at 87.13. Whereas Utah was 87.27 last year, which was higher than all of them, excluding Oklahoma and Texas.

BYU has their work cut out for them. If they ever do consistently rise to the top of the Big 12 in recruiting, it will take years of consistently winning. And they are starting out near the bottom in recruiting.

Granted, the irony of this whole thing is that without Oklahoma and Texas, BYU faces teams that are overall lower in recruiting than Utah has had to face (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington etc. are all higher ranked than the best of the Big 12 without TX and OK), so maybe BYU can rise easier than Utah did, although I still think, even with that, it will be a struggle for them.

While they are right to be excited about joining the Big 12, and I don’t mind them celebrating it, they don’t know what will hit them in the first few years – see their recent game against Baylor – if you didn’t watch that game, don’t let the final score or Cougarboarders fool you – it was not nearly that close, and Baylor dominated them thoroughly.

[younglurch]

I’m sure their lurkers on this board will clown me over on CB for saying this, but I’m really skeptical of their long-term prospects as a program, even in the Big 12. Let’s face it, the Big 12 without OU and UT has no marquee football brands. Sure the PAC has struggled recently, but the likes of Oregon, USC, UCLA, UW, etc will always keep us somewhat relevant. Don’t think you can say the same for the Big 12. If you’re counting on Baylor (small religious school), ISU (agriculture school), and OSU (not even the best school in their state) to carry your conference, you’ve lost. Sure they have some good recent basketball success, but football is what drives your confernce.

Plus, the “PAC-12 Champs” bit they’re doing is a stretch at best. Has BYU done remarkably well agains the PAC this year? Absolutely, I even think if they were in the conference they could get to the title game. But going 4-0 against the PAC with 2 of those being against of our worst teams hardly qualifies as the “own” they think it does. Try playing a full 9 game conference slate and see what happens. Maybe they win, maybe they don’t. But playing the 5 games they are is hardly reason to call yourself PAC-12 champs.

They win the Holy War for the 1st time in 10 years and pull a couple of decent recruits and act like they’re suddenly the best program out west. I wish we played them next year to set the record straight. Mark my words, BYU will be a persistent 7-5/6-6 program at best for years to come. 

Have at it, CB. 

[Larry B]

Mark my words, BYU will be a persistent 7-5/6-6 program at best for years to come.

They said the exact thing about us when we joined the Pac12, and look how that played out. I actually think they’re going to do really well in the Big12 and recruiting will end up being better than ours.

[younglurch]

What makes you say that? Their recruiting is inherently restricted by the honor code, and I say that as an LDS person. Who wants to play for a school where you can’t have a beard?? They might get more Mormon talent, but guys from Big 12 country aren’t going to Provo. They just aren’t.

[BD]

I actually think they’re going to do really well in the Big12 and recruiting will end up being better than ours.

Given that for the past several years, leaving out Oklahoma and Texas, Utah’s avg. recruiting ranking would be either #1 or #2 in the Big 12. If BYU passes up Utah in recruiting, then that is like saying BYU would have the #1 recruiting class in the Big 12. Given that they are now at the very bottom, I am having lots of doubts that will happen. But, strange things can happen, so I don’t want to cut off all possibilities. I’m just doubting it right now.

[Larry B]

You’ve also got to consider that our recruiting might get worse. They’ll start getting commits that would have gone to Utah over BYU but only because of P5 inclusion. 

[BD]

Well that’s certainly possible. Given today’s “what have you done for me lately?” means last week only (see Zion Steptoe) practically. Anything can happen.

[Central Coast Ute]

The BIG 12 is losing autonomy status. No, BYU will not keep them a P5 league. You can’t lose blue bloods, add a bunch of G5’s and expect to stay P5. It’s the Alliance, the SEC, and everyone else.

[Ute Dub]

This is wrong. 90% of the time BYU and Utah aren’t recruiting the same areas or same athletes. Pull your head out.

[BD]

Following up, I don’t want to play the rival fan that puts emotion over logic (well, maybe a little bit of emotion over logic is fine haha) and claim BYU will be perennial conference bottom dwellers, like they claimed non-stop about us. I do think they can and will have some success in the Big 12. Perhaps even get to the conference championship quicker than Utah did, especially considering that as of now it does appear that the top of the Big 12 might not be as difficult to compete against as utah has had over the past decade against the top of the Pac 12. Of course, we are talking about the future, and with that a healthy amount of speculation is required.

But reading some posts on CB makes me think that they think they have already passed up utah in recruiting or will do so very quickly and Ute fans should be scared is ridiculous CB emotion based nonsense. Sorry, but no. That’s my point.

[D T]

The Honor Code will always be a major barrier….I don’t see much changing w/their avg star rating….Maybe a slight bump, but that’s their ceiling.

[ironman1315]

This. P5 crootin bump won’t be bug for them because thei pool is narrow. 

[UteFanatic]

Their recruiting will improve. They might even occasionally pull down a top 60 recruiting class.