Predict The Score Game – Averages Added

[Tony (admin)]

If you look at the Predict the Score contest I’ve added the average of all the predictions. A couple have suggested this so I thought what the hell else am I going to do on a Sunday morning. As smart as most Ute fans are here it will be interesting to see how close they are.  The numbers can be skewed by people being silly though. I don’t think Utah will beat ND 100-0.  So if you see someone posting outlandish predictions, give them some crap and tell them to post a serious prediction!

Cheers and GO UTES

[Coreyc04]

Damn it. Apparently you want me to move my prediction to 98-0.

[Tony (admin)]

You’re not the only one: https://www.utehub.com/predict/?task=user_picks&round_id=10&user_id=1356

[Tony (admin)]

Interestingly @Coreyc04 you moving your prediction from 100-0 to 45-3 only moved the average by about 1 decimal point.  But if the planis to use all the smart Utah picks to bet against the spread in Vegas, I need it accurate. Hehe.

[Mr Chainsaw]

Obligatory stats comment. The median would be a better measure for this because it would throw out the ridiculous predictions.

[Tony (admin)]

Yeah I looked at doing the median and I might do that.

[Tony (admin)]

🙂 Ok I’ve done the median. Both numbers seem high to me (currently 45 24 Utah). I wonder if I can spit out the numbers for one of them and check them somehow.

[Tony (admin)]

Ok I found a median calculator. My first function to calculate it was bad. Got it now. Current 41-10.

[Mr Chainsaw]

Nice! 41-10 seems very reasonable. It’ll be interesting to see how good the crowd-sourced numbers are at predicting the score vs any single user

[Tony (admin)]

It’ll be interesting to see how good the crowd-sourced numbers are at predicting the score vs any single user

Yes. I suppose now we could go back and look at last year’s predictions and see how good they are too. If it is nailed, some trips to wendover/vegas could be in order!

[FtheY]

Good ole wisdom of the crowds. 

[KJU]

My guess is that the Average (or Median) will end up over estimating the Utes margin of Victory. I know this is hard to believe and I myself don’t want to believe it but we are Fans and as such hold a smidgen of bias.