Reddit discusses (based on The Athletic) which Big12 team could win an NC first

[SalUteopia]

Many Utah mentions by Reddit users. One out of the 3 podcast hosts also chose Utah.
Personally, I think it’s a long shot and virtually impossible, especially in the NIL era.
What are your thoughts?

Reddit Link

The Athletic Podcast Link

[FountainofUte]

Obviously it’s going to be tough.

The confluence of perfect timing of talent, experience, and depth on the team, coupled with extreme luck of the bounce of the ball, lack of injuries, probably help from other teams making your path easier. I just can’t fathom a season where Utah is the last team standing.

It’s not impossible, but it’s so hard to imagine it playing out like that.

With that said, I think Utah can keep its name in the NC conversation as long as KW is at the U.

We’re probably 1-5 years away from a head coaching change. How that pans out may shape Utah football for the next decade or two.

Who expected that after Majerus our nationally relevant basketball program would spin off into obscurity? If you had approached me with that in the late ’90s I would have laughed and said you’re crazy. I thought Utah was bigger than Majerus and we’d confidently find our footing with his departure.

So, here’s to hoping that KW gets a serious crack at a NC. This year may be as good a chance as we’ve ever had.

[J Rocksville]

I agree, but even the best teams have a tough time and need a lot of things to fall their way. The NIL situation is the wild west right now, but even with the income gap between the B1G and SEC to the B12, they can’t pay EVERYONE. Nobody is going to be paying 3 TE’s 7 figures each, so kids that aren’t cracking the rotation right away are going to be moving around.

All the blue chip kids will want to go to the 10-15 teams that compete at the top every year, but there are enough talented kids that those programs can’t offer money or playing time to everyone, and for every kid developed by a program like ours that jumps to a bigger school, there will be 4* kids that leave bigger schools for an opportunity at playing time and earning themselves some money. Like Calhoun and Lyons. It’s going to look different, but I suspect the flow of developable talent out of the big programs will be about the same as the flow of established talent into them. Integrating that many new starters every year has to hurt continuity.

The gap between the B12 and those leagues isn’t as big as the gap was from the MW to the P5. We’re in shouting distance and during a good season with some good luck, I don’t see why we can’t compete for the crown. I do share your fear that Utah isn’t a perennial brand, and I hope football doesn’t drop off like basketball has…or similar to how Nebraska dropped off the radar for so long. At least Nebraska has decades of success to lean on.

[MDUte]

For Utah to have a legitimate shot at winning a natty this year, IMO it would take for most of our starters to be healthy throughout the post season. And this would pretty much require a miracle as all teams sustain key injuries throughout the year…not as severely as we did last year, but there’s always a good number of key injuries that occur.
I only say that because Utah’s 22 starters can line up and compete with anyone. Where the Georgias and Ohio St’s of the world beat us is with superior depth. We’ve got really good depth. But their depth is elite talent. 4* dudes backing up 5* dudes. And more 4* dudes backing up their backup 4* dudes. That’s tough to compete with.
So all in all, it’s an extreme long shot but that tiniest bit of hope and possibility is what keeps us coming back for more…right?! Go Utes!!

[RedRocks]

Most of the teams that are often in the discussion for the national championship and the playoff are teams that frequently finish with only 1 or 2 losses, at the most. Then they break through once in a while with undefeated or 1 loss years where they make the championship.

Utah seems to be a 3 to 4 loss regular/conference season team. Since joining the P5, I think Utah has only finished with fewer than three losses in regular season / conference play (outside COVID) one time: 2019 (with 2). Not sure that changes too much in the Big 12.

Regular season losses count less with the expanded playoff and autobids; however, if you can’t avoid losses during the season, you probably won’t avoid a loss in the playoffs.

I’d love to see Utah win a real (on the field) national championship. I just won’t get my hopes up too far.

[Virginia Ute]

I think it’s a long shot for Utah, but not impossible. The stars have to align. The only way I see it happening is to follow the Michigan model of keeping kids in the program for 3-4 years that could otherwise go to the NFL. Utah has to get some luck recruiting, keep developing NFL talent, and then keep everyone around so that they can catch lightning in a bottle come playoff time.

Interestingly, I think Utah’s chances in a 12-team playoff are a lot less than when it was 4-teams. TCU was was one game away, but I don’t think that team makes 3-4 wins in a 12 team playoff situation.

[SalUteopia]

@Virginia, this is a great point. A 12-team playoff will provide relatively easy access to the CFP compared to the 4-team model. However, it’s going to make it more difficult to win a natty because you’ll have to play 2-3 extra games against elite teams.

[AlohaUte]

Remember, this is essentially asking which Big12 team has the best shot, not who is likely to even do it as I don’t think any B12 team will win ever with the way the game is moving.

Anyway, Utah definitely has the best shot or at least is a top-3 option. And despite what I said above, I do remind myself that in the 22-23 season, TCU made the championship game. If they can do it, we can do it.

[SalUteopia]

Agreed, ‘if ever’ being the key part. I think Utah, OKSU, TCU, KSU have the best shot. UCF and UH have the potential. Baylor is the wild card.