The performance of Big 12 teams against other P4 teams in the out-of-conference games is important. The more meaningful wins our teams get, the more likely we are to have two or three teams in the CFP. Last year, including bowl games, Big 12 teams were 7-12 in out-of-conference games vs other P4 teams.
How will we do this year? My predictions:
Colorado vs Georgia Tech (I am high on Colorado)
Baylor vs Auburn (I am not high on Baylor)
Cincinnati vs Nebraska
UCLA vs Utah
North Carolina vs TCU (I think North Carolina is going to be ugly this year)
SMU vs Baylor (I think SMU is going to be good this year. Baylor is in for a rough start)
Iowa State vs Iowa (I think Iowa State is going to have a big year)
Oregon vs Oklahoma State
Missouri vs Kansas
Arizona State vs Mississippi State
BYU vs Stanford
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh
UCF vs North Carolina (UCF is going to be even uglier than TCU)
Kansas State and Arizona play each other as their “out-of-conference” because it was scheduled when Arizona was in the Pac-12. Houston and Texas Tech play Oregon State as their “P4” out-of-conference.
By my count, that is 6-7 in P4 OOC. Against the ACC in particular, I have Big 12 teams going 3-3. Unless I’m way off, the Big 12 won’t win the extra CFP spot with our out-of-conference performance. What it will ultimately come down to is if we cannibalize each other or not. If two teams get through the regular season at 11-1, I think they’ll both go. I could even see three bids if there’s enough carnage in the other conferences and we have three undefeated or one-loss teams.
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