On paper – the Oregon game is a toss-up

[ProudUte]

This game appears to be a good matchup with two evenly-matched teams.  Here are the numbers.

Oregon averages 42.7 points per game and Utah 39.5.

Oregon gives up 27.4 points per game and Utah 20.

Utah averages 65 fewer yards per game on offense than Oregon, but we give up 70 yards fewer per game.

We both have 8-2 records with one conference loss.

The ESPN game predictor has Utah at 51.8% and Oregon at 48.2%.

Both teams have some serious injuries to key players.

Utah and Oregon both have QBs who run effectively.  This may be the key.  Which team will have the healthiest QB this Saturday?  Both teams are most successful when their QB runs.  Both QBs have been injured.  We have no idea how bad the injury to Bo Nix is.  We do know that Rising’s injury has stopped Ludwig from calling his number.  Rising has not kept the ball (outside a scramble) since the USC game on October 15th.

This could be a great game.  I think it comes down to which team is the healthiest and commits the fewest turnovers.

Go Utes!!!

 

[tanute3]

My biggest concern is our defensive line getting pressure on their QB. Oregon’s offensive line is stout – if we can get a couple of sacks and restrict their run game (reasonably so) I think we’ve got a good chance. If Nix has all day to throw and their RBs aren’t touched until the second level, it will be a tough task.

[ProudUte]

I agree. Our Dline seems to be improving, but it has been against lesser talent.  We did sack Caleb Williams 3-4 times and he had not been sacked all year.  How mobile will Nix be?  I don’t think even the Oregon coaches know that yet.

I heard that both their 1st and 2nd string centers were hurt in the game against UW.  I am sure this will change how they do some things.  Their Oline is excellent and their RBs break a lot of tackles.  They are a run-first team and that sets up a very good passing game.

 

[SalUteopia]

Yep, their OL is stout, but their starting and backup centers are hurt. Containing on the edges and speed have been a problem for us, and both their RBs are very good. Bo completion rate is nearly 73% so they’re not one dimensional. Honestly, I don’t like our chances even if Bo is not 100% due to his injury.

[Yergensen]

This^ plus our ability to contain on the edges.  Oregon will attack us there, it’s one of their strengths and it’s been a weakness for us.  

Our D has to prove itself against a good to great offensive line.  Florida and UCLA are the best lines we’ve faced and our 2 losses.  

Win in the trenches, win the game.

[KoolWhitt]

Another remarkable similarity between the two of us going into this game: Oregon lost both its starting center and backup center in the Washington game. Our starting center didn’t play the last two games and we lost our backup center in the Stanford game.

I didn’t really watch the Ducks and Huskies but recaps I have listened to have all mentioned that Oregon’s offensive line did not play as well as they have been all year (which is among the best in the country). Not sure why (did the injuries at center play a role?) but if they are experiencing some issues there, the improvement we have seen with our D Line in the past few games getting into the back field might pay big dividends this week.

That’s the big key to the game for me; if our D Line can win their matchups and if Tavion really is back to his old self, I think we have a decent chance.