SOS took a big hit last week. Florida looks like a 5-7 team and Baylor could find themselves at 3-9 so OOC isn’t as strong as hoped. Currently 0-2 against ranked teams, since SC and UCLA dropped out. Beating a 2 win team at home isn’t going to move the needle as much as a 4 win team on the road does.
There is always some maneuvering to create matchups. The 3 Big-12 teams just ahead of Utah all have clear paths to their CCG whereas Utah is expected to lose this weekend and be out of the running. The committee’s mandate, whether spoken or not, is to anticipate the NY6 matchups and seed teams according to their chances at getting in those games rather than a true ranking of all teams.
It’s obvious by how teams are ranked that they are done so forward looking instead of on resume. Penn State is a top 10 team with one “quality” win over Iowa and the loss to Ohio State. But they need to be high enough so that if they beat Michigan this week, Michigan won’t drop much. Should Michigan then beat Ohio State, all 3 will be something like 4, 5 and 6 before the CCG so that the committee can suddenly find the necessary logic to put at least one of them in the playoff.
Similar reason for Oregon State moving up. They can win out, including the CCG, and be the auto NY6 bid from the PAC. So they have to be high enough to be in the top 12 if that happens but not drop UW or Oregon very far if/when they beat them since they are also in the running.
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