I’m thinking the magic number is 32-34 points a game.
As Morgan Scalley has matured as a DC over the past few years, it’s pretty rare for Utah to lose when we hit that mark. Last year, only Colorado (49, right after the BYU loss) and Iowa State (31) managed to put more than 30 on our defense. We lost both those games.
And while the defense is ultimately responsible for how many points the other team scores, the offense plays a huge role. We all know that our offense over the past two years has been weak. A strong offense that eats clock, puts points on the board, and doesn’t turn the ball over makes life a lot easier for the D. A good offense that scores points will also cause an opponent to change how they play in order to catch up. With the running game we should have this year, I expect us to control possession and limit the number of snaps our opponents get—something we didn’t do nearly as well the last couple of years.
And yes, I am expecting Utah to score more this year than the last two years–and that should also affect how many points our opponents score. I’m hoping for us to average somewhere between 32–34 ppg this season. That would be put considerably better than 2023 (23.2 PPG) and 2024 (23.6 PPG), but not as good as the conference championship teams of 2022 (38.6 PPG) and 2021 (36.1 PPG). Still, scoring at that clip should put us in contention for the CCG.
Just for interest, here’s what our record looks like over the past four years when we score 30 (according to AI but these numbers seem to jive with my memory FWIW):
2024 (2-0)
We all know last year’s struggle. Utah only hit 30 twice, against Utah State (38) and Southern Utah (49). Tough year on the offense to say the least. Even with a bad offense, only two teams scored more than 30 against us: Colo and Iowa St.
2023 (4-0)
Not much better here. Utah only topped 30 points against Arizona St (55), USC (34) Cal (34) Weber St (31). But even with an offense that didn’t score and possess the ball well, only Oregon (35), Washington (35) and Arizona (42) scored more than 30 on us.
2022 (10-1)
Cam was healthy and the offense was rolling, scoring wins against USC (47), Colo (63), Stanford (42), Ariz (45), USC (43), Ore St (42), Ariz St. (34), SDS (35), and So. Utah (73). The one loss was to UCLA (42-32) in the Rose Bowl. I was at that game and it sucked–brutally hot. That year, three teams scored 30+ against us (UCLA, USC, and Penn State) and we were 1-2 in those games.
2021 (9-3)
Ohio St (45-48 in a loss), Oregon (38), Oregon (38 again), Arizona (38), Stanford (52), UCLA (44), Ore St (42 in a loss in which we scored 34), Ariz St (35), USC (42), SDS (31-33 in a loss), Weber State (40).
Utah @ 
UCLA 
.