Sagarin has Alabama and Stanford as the #2, and #3 teams in the country. Stanford also had an extra week to prepare for SC, be careful… SC may not be as bad as everybody is implying. The Freshman QB does have an arm, and can make the throws.
I’m starting to second guess this game. Fortunately its at home and a rowdy crowd shows up.
I have read several things about how bookies make and adjust their lines — but they have a better record than any of the computers (Sagarin, Massey, and several others) as well as the total yds and all. So, I take that into consideration.
They are about 5 better in sagarin rankings. If played today they’d be a 7-8 point fav.
So I had a few minutes to look at stats since that’s all you’re interested in
Yards per play on offense TW 6.23 KT 5.27 – that doesn’t seem like much but in a series that 3 yards closer to a 3rd down conversion under TW that’s a big deal in terms of play calling, but of course the 3rd down conversion rate makes me question the validity of that argument.
Really there are 3 statistics I think matter. Wins, points scored, and a corollary to that expected points added.
So we have to take into account level of competition. Current Sagarin rankings of UM (36) and FSU (103) are pretty different so I think any tie is actually a clear win for TW.
Wins. I think we give each 1.5 wins. I will say TWs solo win trumps KTs.
Points scored. How many points have been scored with the QB taking the snap? In both cases the answer is 24. Both have had 4 touchdowns. Again 2 TDs against UM trumps 3 against FSU and Travis lead 2 long drives against USU to KTs one. Add that to the fact that 1 of Kt’s 4 Td drives was a garbage time score against a beaten team.
Avg TD drive length slightly favors KT 81.5 vs TW 73.5
If you broaden that to include drives that end in FGs then things even out
KTs’s 2 FG drives were 60 and 20 yds – avg 40 with total scoring drive average
71yds/scoring drive and 14.2/yds driven/point scored
TW’s has had 2 missed FGs at the end of his drives, but neither was in the red zone, but his 1 drive that stalled in the red zone was 63 yards.
74yds/scoring drive and 13.7 yards drive/point scored
Again basically the same numbers but Travis did it against tougher competition
Expected Points Added – Fancy WAR type stat ESPN runs
TW 11.6, KT 3.6
Like I said before the stats may be “objective” and no different but we’ve only got 90 minutes of play for each guy this year, and so they’re kinda suspect, but the fact they are the same against substantially different competition says something to me.
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