College football Week 12: consequential conference clashes
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No. 3 Oregon at No. 23 Utah (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Both Oregon and Utah head into Saturday’s game with a chance to lock up their respective divisions in what will likely be a preview of the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 3.
For Oregon, the stakes are much higher, as it remains on course to return to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014, when the format debuted. Considering the Ducks are already ranked ahead of Cincinnati and have a more difficult schedule ahead, it’s hard to create a logical scenario in which the Ducks are left out of the four-team field if they win out. From that standpoint, this is essentially a playoff game for Oregon, as a loss would undoubtedly drop it from contention.
Oregon’s situation leaves Utah in a unique position: The Utes might have a better shot at playing in the Rose Bowl if they lose this game. Here’s why: As previously stated, if Oregon wins out, it will go to the playoff, meaning the Pac-12’s slot for the Rose Bowl would then likely go to the next highest-ranked team from the Pac-12 … Utah (probably). If the Ducks lose to Utah this week, though, then win the rematch in the Pac-12 title game, they would be the team headed to Pasadena. Obviously, Utah would prefer to just win the rest of its games, earn the conference title and take that route to Pasadena, but a loss wouldn’t be so bad.
Through seven conference games, Oregon (6-1) and Utah (6-1) have put up similar statistics. Utah (38.4 points per game) is slightly outscoring Oregon (34.2) and has given up just five fewer points (162 to 167). Both teams are outgunning their opponents by 99.0 yards per game (693 yards total) and are nearly even in turnover margin (Utah +3; Oregon +2).
They have the two most efficient scoring offenses in the conference (Utah at 3.33 points per drive; Oregon at 2.91). Utah has a slight edge on defense too, allowing just 1.96 points per drive to Oregon’s 2.04, and has committed just 4.29 penalties per game to Oregon’s 7.86. — Kyle Bonagura
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