Path to the Pac-12 Championship

[UteDuke]

I am feeling that the key games for the Utes to make the Pac-12 Championship and have a shot at a 3rd consecutive title will be 1) Saturday at home against Oregon, and 2) on the road against Arizona. Winning both of these games to me provides the best chances of playing in the title game. I believe a loss in either game will make Utah heavily dependent on the other top contenders stumbling. I think you can lose at Washington and still make it, and if you lose to either ASU or Colorado, then you probably didn’t deserve to be there in the first place.

Oregon and Arizona are both playing really good football right now. Having the tiebreaker over Oregon may be the difference between “last in” and “first out”. The game at Arizona admittedly makes me very nervous. They are going to get someone eventually, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a contender’s title aspirations were laid to rest in the desert.

[AlohaUte]

Long and short of it, we can at most lose one more game if we want to be in, and even then it might take some luck. We lose two and we are out. I highly doubt we beat UW in Seattle, so this game is pretty critical.

[SalUteopia]

I agree, Duke. H2H vs UO is worth 2 wins, and a win at UA will practically guarantee a place in the P12 CCG despite a loss at UW. UA has come close to an upset, and I hope they get it out of the way this weekend against OSU, handing OSU their 2nd conf loss. I still feel OSU losses to both UW and UO to end the season, but I’d rather OSU lose this weekend and beat the Ducks. We should also hope USC beats UW and UO to give us more cushion, but that is not looking likely.

[RedUte14]

you would need Oregon state to lose two more games then.
if they only lose to washington they have the tiebreaker against us.

[SalUteopia]

OSU needs to beat UO, and lose to UA and UW.

[2008 National Champ]

The math is pretty simple at this point. Unless 2007 level chaos ensues over the next 5 weekends, no 2 loss team is making the playoff. And that level of chaos hasn’t happened yet so why count on it?

To make the playoff, Utah needs to win out. There are 17 P5’s who have one loss or less and most have relatively easy schedules. A one-loss Utah would have a better resume than every other 1 loss team in the country (currently #5 in adjusted opponent win %, with only Texas higher of the contenders) and there can only be a max of 3 undefeateds should Utah win out.

If the goal is just make the CCG, there are 3 options:

1. Win out and Utah is in no matter what else happens

2. Only lose one of the final 5 and be tied with one team at 7-2 for second spot. It would be best if that loss was to Arizona, Arizona State or Colorado. Ranking doesn’t matter for CCG, record does. Utah would then hold the tiebreaker over everyone but Oregon State. Just don’t end up tied with a team they lost to.

3. Get into a 3 way tiebreaker. Utah holds the SOS advantage over every other contender because they miss WSU and Stanford (currently 2-7 in conference). Oregon misses Arizona and UCLA (combined 4-4), advantage Utah. Oregon State misses USC and Arizona State (combined 4-5), advantage Utah. USC misses Oregon State and WSU (combined 4-4), advantage Utah. UCLA misses Washington and Oregon (combined 7-1), advantage Utah. Washington misses UCLA and Colorado (combined 3-5), advantage Utah.

In the SOS argument, you want to miss bad teams and play good ones. Having the worst record of the teams you miss allows you to move on. Utah got in over Washington in 2022 because the misses were CAL v SC.

[UtMtBiker]

In all likelihood, OSU needs to lose 2 more games. If USC folds like everyone expects them to, they are out of the picture as far as Utah is concerned with Utah holding the tie break. UW isn’t going to lose 3 so they’re basically in. If we lose to OU this week with OSU holding tie breaker, we’ll need a lot of help.