After going over these numbers, I see why we are such big favorites this week (and likely next). Utah is just better across the board and the margin is significant in some places. If we avoid a -3 TO margin these should be wins. The primary reson for pessimism in these next 2 games seems to be based around our offense pending collapse going up against good defenses. We will probably see some amount of regression to a mean, but it wont matter. Heres why…
OFFENSE
YARDS PER PLAY (rk)
Utah: 7.15 (6)
ASU: 6.23 (39)
Cal: 4.95 (108)
Pass YPP
Utah: 10.3 (8)
ASU: 9.1 (14)
Cal: 7.2 (74)
RUSH YPP
Utah 5.43 (15)
ASU: 3.68 (102)
Cal: 3.4 (116)
OPPONENT ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE FEI (unadj rank)
Utah: 15 (6)
ASU: 49 (38)
Cal: 65 (93)
ANALYSIS
The difference in SOS overall and the level of defense face between Utah and ASU is small. The logic that Utahs offense will see significant regression finally facing quality defenses goes for ASU as well. ASU is starting from a lower point than Utah on offense and is going up against the better defense, they could very well see the larger regression from that lower starting point. Its 1 game, so anything can happen in that small of a sample size. I still think turnovers would have to be the equalizer here.
DEFENSE
YPP
Utah: 4.79 (25)
ASU: 5.06 (39)
Cal: 5.01 (36)
PASS YPP
Utah: 6.2 (21)
ASU: 6.7 (45)
Cal: 6.0 (15)
RUSH YPP
Utah: 2.44 (6)
ASU: 2.97 (16)
Cal: 4.07 (64)
OPPONENT ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE FEI (unadj rank)
Utah: 19 (20)
ASU: 34 (48)
Cal: 27 (31)
ANALYSIS
ASU has really struggled to get any space for eno benjamin whatsoever only getting 4.2 ypc against a bad colorado defense, as well as 2.9 against sac state (!) and 4.6 against kent state. Our line could have some trouble opening holes against their team strength (run d), but again, the advantage here is Utah. Starting from a much higher point and going against the worse of the two run defenses. Herm is going to have to thoroughly outcoach Whit/Scal to erase the deficit.
Conclusion
I expected a 9-11 point spread coming into this game, my theory is that its above that because vegas knows our defense is, and will end up, better than it is ranked statistically at this point once the sample size adequately dilutes matt fink hail marys.
We have an advantage at every single spot. We still have to play well to win..but play our game, dont allow any special teams TDs, and the coaches cant be outcoached in both halves and this will be a win. Much like the secondary the last 2 weeks, this week the offense gets a chance to prove themselves. Show them what you can do and blow this team the f**k out of RES
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