Why does Whit insinuate a move to the Big10 is coming?

[Kellso]

I read and hear Wit say the Big12 may be temporary. A move to a larger conference is going to happen in the future. Is there any public evidence to back this up?

[DataUte]

No, I don’t think so. I think it’s mostly the ACC uncertainty and Whit’s opinion that we will be heading to super-conferences sooner rather than later. I think another time he said it could be 5 years, but as fast as a few years depending on how the dominoes fall with the ACC GOR and schools exiting (FSU lawsuit is followed by 6 other schools seeing if 1) they can get out of GOR, 2) make the buyout ‘reasonable’).

[Utesbyfive]

The man is talking about how it seems to all be in flux. He has never said anything specific about what conference the Utes might end up in, but he has been pretty consistently saying realignment isn’t done.

It’s the zoobs and the easily offended Big 12 wankers who have put words in his mouth about the whole B1G thing. There’s no specific smoke or fire about anything.

[Utah]

This is a 100% zoob made up fantasy (what they are best at) and Big 12 team fan being offended that we’d rather be with USC and Ohio State than Baylor and Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Here is the reality:

The SEC and B1G make more money than anyone else and it’s not close.
The ACC is headed towards ruins.
The Big 12 is…whatever for now.

What will happen in 2028-2029 (or sooner) is this:

There will have to be governing body that can regulate football and NIL and transfers and recruits. The NCAA isn’t cutting it. This body will probably break off from the NCAA due to Title IX issues and will create the new whatever league.

Cable tv will continue to lose subscribers. Less subscribers = less money = less money for football teams. No one likes that. The way to keep the money high for certain teams is to consolidate further. Get rid of dead weight (see Oregon State and Washington State) and add teams with value (see B1G and USC/UCLA/Oregon/UW and Big 12 with Utah/ASU/Arizona/Colorado).

Anyone who thinks any team in the Big 12 is there for the long haul is silly. Once the next realignment comes around, every single Big 12 and ACC team will be begging the B1G/SEC to let them in.

The Big 12 and ACC is nothing more than a tryout for promotion/relegation. Utah really needs to dominate the Big 12. The state of Utah is borderline. Y’all really ain’t that big. Utah is big enough that if the football team has interest in their program due to their success, then they can be added to the B1G. BUT, if Utah and BYU are 25-35 level programs…no one will think twice about leaving them out.

We’ve got four years to prove we belong in the B1G, which means we need to win conference titles and playoff games. Prove we have value and would increase the revenue for the B1G and ESPN/FOX/etc.

If not, then in 2028-ish, teams will get promoted, probably be a team or two that gets relegated, the Big 12 will fall apart and we will be back in some form of the MWC/PAC conference again.

And honestly…either way is fine with me. We will either go back to dominating the MWC/PAC or will be a competitive team in the B1G ala Michigan State or Wisconsin. Both will be fun.

[Trailgoat]

Agree. Crucial 4-5 years in the B12 for Utah. Utah likely going through a head coaching change in the next 1-2 years. Utes need to make the 12 team play-off next season and 2-3 times over the next four years. Fan support for college football in the next few years is something that could be an interesting factor considering everything that’s going on.

[Utah]

Going along with this, the PAC conference is gone. I’d be surprised if there is even a Big 12 conference in 2030.

You’ll have either super conferences or the B1G and SEC will break up again. Either they break off or go the way of the WAC-16.

Either way, I don’t know if the Big 12 is even around. The left over western teams will reform the PAC conference. The leftover ACC teams will join with the Big 12/old Big East teams and form 1 or 2 new conferences. It wouldn’t shock me if Rutgers and Maryland get booted from the B1G. They will join those conferences.

And if the TV money dries up…Then Texas and USC won’t stay knowing that they aren’t the top dog anymore.

Honestly, if the TV money dries up, I’d bet this would happen:

The PAC-12 reforms. Maybe just a PAC-10 with no OSU and WSU.
The B1G goes back to 10 or 12 teams.
Texas and Oklahoma leave the SEC and form a new conference where they can be king again.
The ACC reforms and The Big East reform with Big 12, B1G and SEC teams that were booted, but with new names.

And even if the money doesn’t dry up, it wouldn’t shock me to see there be relegation/promotion and a four team P4 league that is set up like this:

The SEC – they drop some teams.
The B1G – They also drop some teams.
The PAC – USC, UCLA, Oregon, UW reform the PAC with old members.
The new Texas conference – Texas takes Oklahoma, ACC teams and forms a new conference.

4 conferences of 8 teams each makes so much sense.

You play every team in your conference. 7 games. Then you have 1 OOC vs anyone. 8 games. Then you play the other three conferences. That puts you up to 11 games. Then you do a 16 team playoff. Top 4 teams from each conference. 1 vs 4. 2 vs 3. Then a “conference title” game with the winners. Then the four winners play each other. Crown a champion.

You could even take the four “losing” teams from each conference and hold a “Battle of the Conference” type deal. Instead of bowl games, give each team two more games where they play teams from other conferences. #5 SEC vs #5 B1G and so on. Then whatever conference has the best record at the end of the year of OOC games wins a cup or trophy or something.

It would be a ratings bonanza. 13-15 games per team. That would be huge money. The key is to make sure you get each “region” represented. You really don’t want two LA teams or two Utah teams.

Anyways, the point is, college football will be very different in 2030 and probably not include a Big 12 conference.

[Ute Dub]

I like Chip Kelly’s idea. Football is separate from other sports as far as conference affiliation. 1 conference, 1 media deal. 64 teams in P5, 64 teams in G5. A conference commissioner. Go!