the line has already moved towards Utah, and may move even more

Viewing 3 reply threads

- 11/17/2021 at 3:11 PM #157401
  4
  
  rbmw263
  Ute Fan
  
  @rbmw263
  
  my guess is that the line at kick will have Utah favored by 4.
  
  the line has/will move towards Utah despite 80% of the money going to Oregon, and for some reason ill still have to read on here that all vegas does is try and get even money on both sides
- 11/17/2021 at 3:26 PM #157403
  
  Central Coast Ute
  Ute Fan
  
  @flip2848
  
  How Vegas sets odds.
  - 11/18/2021 at 3:02 PM #157529
    
    rbmw263
    Ute Fan
    
    @rbmw263
    
    the goal is to set accurrate lines. i dont know why i have to argue this. vegas does not lose money from the average joe. no matter how much money they lose on a side in one game. in the long run. all the joes lose.
    
    Vegas profit margin is only reduced from guys who know what they are doing (quants). they lose money from guys who know what they are doing when lines are innacurate because that increases their edge and their +ev.
    
    yall, this is common sense.
    - 11/18/2021 at 3:16 PM #157530
      
      Central Coast Ute
      Ute Fan
      
      @flip2848
      
      The goal is to set a line to get people to bet money, not predict the outcome of a game. If it worked the way you claim, Vegas loses money 100% of the time. The line opened -2.5 for Utah. The money came in on the Utes side so the bookies moved the line to -3 to get more people to bet on Oregon. If Oregon had 80% of the money and the line moved to favor Utah, more people would continue to bet on Oregon because it becomes more likely for them to cover. Then if Oregon, covers with 80%+ of the money on them, Vegas loses money. The only way for them to guarantee a profit is for people to put money on both sides.
      
      These lines aren’t to predict a winner. In fact Utah could win and not cover. The goal in these bets has never been to predict an outcome, only to make money, which they do hand over fist.
- 11/17/2021 at 3:33 PM #157407
  2
  
  Tony (admin)
  Admin/Founder
  
  @admin
  
  If 80% of the money goes to oregon the line will not move toward Utah. Maybe I don’t understand your use of the word “toward.”
  - 11/17/2021 at 3:37 PM #157409
    1
    
    Central Coast Ute
    Ute Fan
    
    @flip2848
    
    Exactly. The line moves with the money. Not the other way around.
  - 11/18/2021 at 2:59 PM #157528
    
    rbmw263
    Ute Fan
    
    @rbmw263
    
    it already has. opened at -2.5 for utah and is -3 with heavy vig. and yes, oregon is getting 80%+ of the money.
- 11/17/2021 at 4:38 PM #157418
  
  CincyUte
  Ute Fan
  
  @cincyute
  
  So you’re saying that Vegas thinks that we’ll protect this house? That’s awesome.
  - 11/17/2021 at 5:33 PM #157421
    
    Central Coast Ute
    Ute Fan
    
    @flip2848
    
    Not necessarily. Vegas thinks I they set the at -2.5 for Utah, people will bet money. OP seems to think Vegas is in the business to lose money. They don’t build those fancy casinos by giving money away.