Oregon has a prolific offense still but the worst defense they have had in a long time.
Oregons worst offensive game was Usc and they scored 20 pts. They average 37 a game but they haven’t beat a single team with a winning record. ASU is their best win (54-35). They have been able to keep some games close (3 pt losses to Nebraska, cal and Colorado) but the other 4 losses have been by an average of 29 pts. This teams will break under pressure and let the game get out of hand.
Against common opponents oregon is 1-3 (144-202, avg score 36-50), Utah is 2-2 (127-112, avg score 31.75-28)
Oregon vs utah in the numbers
Scoring offense 37pts/game vs 31, Oregon wins
rush off 229/game vs 212/game oregon wins
pass off 264/game vs 220 game oregon wins
scoring defense 43.5 (127th in the nation) vs 23/game utah wins
rush defense 243/game vs 119/game utah wins
pass defense 292/game 248/game utah wins
TO margin -3 vs 9 utah wins
adj scoring off 9 vs 1.6 oregon wins
adj scoring def -4.8 vs 11 utah wins
On average oregon scores 9 more than what other teams usually give up but they usually give up 11 more than they should. This means the Utah score should be between 31-42 and the oregon score should be at the highest 32 and Utah should win by about 9-11 points if both teams play an average game. In common opponents are defense is outperforming them by 22 points a game and our offense is only 5 points worse.
Utah looked pretty revitalized after the ASU game got going. We are as healthy as we could hope to be going into the final two games and Jwilliams has made a huge difference for our team. utah should win this and be able to go into colorado with some momemtum and a chance to win the south. The other difference maker has been having two healthy legitimate WR threats on the field. When CBB and TP are on the field or now CBB with singleton Twilliams has been very effective.
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