Help with rankings

[Charlie]

On 700 today a guest had the easy clear answer for the Y’s ranking in the CFP. He said there are surely 40 teams that would be undefeated with the Y’s schedule. I would also add, 40 teams that could have the scoring margins (note that they would need to have the Y’s culture for 4th quarter scoring in well decided games) they have. As another follow on, I am certain that there are 40 QBs that are easily capable of Wilson’s performance against that schedule.

So the question becomes, how do you rank BYU and Wilson among those 40 teams and QBs? I am quite sure that the first 30 in both lists would come from the P5. That assessment is both easy and simple when you realize that is about 40 something percent of the P5 conferences. So the acid test to apply is to assess the likely schedule and stats of the Y playing a P5 schedule exclusively. If you are talking to someone that suggests the Y or Wilson would be in the top half of either list, you are talking to someone with difficulty analyzing simple relationships in the abstract. For them, even a single game or two with either list of 40, would not be enough to get that light to turn on.

[gUrthBrooks]

BYU would have been 13th, but the committee heard about the armpit thingy, moved em down a spot.

[GameForAnyFuss]

I had a professor at the U who gave notoriously hard exams. If you scored in the 40% range, you were pretty happy. Highest score in the class was usually around 60-70%. Of course grades were curved – we didn’t all fail the class.

After I graduated, I asked that professor why his tests were so hard. He said because he needed to create separation between students. His theory was that, if anyone got a 100 on a test, then the test was a failure because that person wasn’t able to show the extent of what they know. Although I hated those tests at the time, I realized that the concept is correct.

So the answer to your question is, we can’t rank BYU-Provo Campus because there’s no data to create separation. This is the equivalent of giving a test that’s so easy that the entire class got 100. We have no idea if BYU-Provo Campus is legit or not because we can’t see the extent of what they’re capable of.

[UteBacker]

Holy smokes. That’s the best analogy of their situation yet. I never really understood the challenges of being in a big boy conference until we joined one. There are no breaks and the worst team in the conference can beat you if you don’t bring your A game. byu-p fans still have a WAC mentality.

[GpaScottA]

“WAC mentality”. 😂👍

[ProudUte]

I agree with you about BYU but not on Zach Wilson. Every pro scout that I’ve heard indicates he will be picked in the top 5 among QBs. I suspect he will be a first round pick.  Keep in mind he is doing what he us doing with very average receivers.  I understand being suspect of BYU but keep in mind Love from Utah State had much worse stats against a similar schedule and look where he was picked. Bytheway, I am not a big fan of Zach Wilson, just stating what I see and hear. 

[Charlie]

I realize he gets lots of talk, he is a good QB.  Many good QBs don’t even get drafted.  Last year while playing a half P5 schedule, he looked good in some games but in those games, as a whole, appeared average at the P5 level at best.  This year we have seen him look very good while rarely pressured and throwing to wide open receivers after 5 or 6 seconds.  Often after 5 or 6 seconds, when the second level has retreated 15 yards in coverage, he looks good running for first downs.  The schedule has not been a typical G5 schedule, outside of Houston and Boise St, the competition has been the lower quartile of G5 or less.

So now we can assume if he played against what would be their normal schedule of half and half, everything would look like it does when they play teams we have not heard of?  Could we assume he would look the same as he did last year when playing up?  I am stuck thinking he is the same QB until he shows to be great while playing a ranked team or P5 teams.  They did not set out to fool us, the Y is similar to the other undefeated G5 teams.  In years not 2020 there have been undefeated G5 teams that really don’t get a run at the CFP and there have been other QBs have incredible stats with low level competition and not get a run at the best QB in the land.  What changed this year?

[Tony (admin)]

Why the spaces?

[Central Coast Ute]

It happens a lot with Charlie

[Charlie]

Sometimes I cut and past from Word, should I not do that?  I don’t intend spaces or font changes.  A bit handiycapped with my comfort with Word.  Something about Word to Hub?

[Tony (admin)]

NOOOO.  NEVER cut and paste from word.  That’s the worst.  Just type it in the text field your make sure if you are going to copy and paste, that it is plain text with no formatting.

[Charlie]

Never used any formating but guilty of using Word.

[Tony (admin)]

Right on.  Glad we figured it out!  Thanks and GO UTES!