How Big12 announcement affects UofU

[chinngiskhaan]

I’m putting this in the football category even though it has implications for the basketball program as well.

Football/Conference Big Picture: As far as football is concerned, this is obviously better for BYU than independence is/was. The Big12 going forward, at least in the near future will be just a hair below the Pac12 in terms of projected earnings from media contracts and such. This will continue to be the case as long as USC/UCLA/Washington continue to be mediocre at best… but if a team like USC returns to what it was during the Pete Carroll years, or even just a regular playoff contender, the Pac12 will be a top 2/3 P5 conference again. The simple truth is, the Pac12 has at least 4 teams with bigger markets/followings than anyone in the new Big12. The odds of any team from the Big12 becoming anything like USC was in the Carroll days are EXTREMELY thin. Even though Houston is arguably the worst of the new additions, I also think they could POTENTIALLY (If a LOT of things go right for many years in a row) become somewhat of a national powerhouse. They have a big money donor behind them, and they play in what I assume is a big market. If Texas struggles to stay relevant in the SEC, and Houston rattles of several conference championships in a row it may be possible that there is a world that they are the main draw for football hungry eyeballs in the state of Texas. As it currently stands, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon all have far greater viewership potential (obviously assuming that they don’t suck ballsack) than any team in the Big12.

I actually think that if/when BYU becomes successful in the Big12, they could easily be the biggest draw for eyeballs in that conference. BYU has an irrationally loyal fanbase, something no other team in the new Big12 can claim. Their fanbase is national, and a half dozen years of competing for Big12 championships will generate a lot of excitement for a team that hasn’t played for anything meaningful since 1984 (unless you count MWC championships or second tier bowl games). The problem with BYU being your conference’s flagship program is that, while it does have a nationwide fanbase, it really doesn’t have the potential to pull in many more fans that it already has. If you aren’t living in Utah and/or a member of their faith, cheering for BYU as your number 1 team is highly unlikely. With Kalani at the helm they could get a lot of eyeballs as the likeable other team that people watch when nothing else is on… but it won’t go much further than that. BYU being their top team is not the best case scenario for the Big12 (just like it wouldn’t be for Utah to be the top dog in the Pac12).

Now, that is a lot of ifs ands and buts, but what does it all mean for Utah right now? I think BYU going to the Big12 is a good thing for the University of Utah, at least for the next half dozen years or so. This gives both programs permission to finally admit that they don’t need each other anymore. They will still play at least once every 2 or three years of course, but both schools can now move on. I honestly don’t believe these two schools will compete for big time recruits much going forward. The guys who were always going to go to BYU will continue to choose BYU. The guys who wouldn’t go to BYU if their life depended on it still won’t. Utah and BYU will continue to compete for the rest of the in state stars along with Oregon/Washington and presumably more Big12 schools now. If it comes down to BYU/Utah for a recruit, Utah still has the edge in virtually every possible way. More success, better facilities, a (slightly) better conference (with much more attractive and historically significant road destinations), a better chance of making it to the NFL (depending on position I suppose)

Basketball: Utah was already losing recruits to TSPP as we all know because our program is a dumpster fire, and something tells me Smith isn’t going to change that. BYU going from the WCC to the Big12 doesn’t change that. It will be interesting to see how their team performs in what is arguably the best basketball conference. They didn’t win anyting in the WCC, they probably won’t win anything in the Big12. The difference is that if they have a year where they finish in the top 3 of the conference, they’ll get more respect than they got in the WCC for accomplishing the same thing (for good reasons). If for some reason there is a recruit out there deciding between us and them, they would surely (and really should if they aren’t stupid or desperate for immediate playing time) choose BYU.

Congratulations TSPP! (on your conference invite and your soon to be 10th loss in a row to the better team).

[Central Coast Ute]

The big 12 is about to lose half of their value. The new 4 teams won’t be around when UT and OU are still there. The projected media value of that conference is 15-16m per school. The PAC 12 distributed 33.6m per school in 2019-20. Personally I don’t think half is just under, I’d define that as quite a bit under.

[chinngiskhaan]

sure… but that’s semantics as far as I’m concerned. They will be the 5th best P5, we’ll be just ahead of them at 4th (until one of our big market teams starts dominating again some day).

[Dallas]

What does the “P” in P5 stand for? Power? How could a b12 still be considered a power conference after its powerhouse teams are replaced with G5 teams? Won’t lucrative media deals go WAY down once the big boys are gone?

[Central Coast Ute]

Yep. And with Bowlsby burning bridges with ESPN, their media deal won’t be what it could have been.

[Central Coast Ute]

Without UT and OU they’ll lose their p5 status. They weren’t invited to the SEC and they weren’t invited to the alliance. It’s not semantics. If you make less money, you make less money. Plus, the ACC is bringing in less per school than the pac

[#3bballer]

I’m going to start calling it the Small 12.

[chinngiskhaan]

why? Just leave it alone. Don’t be petty, our team is better, and everyone with knows it deep down. That’s good enough for me.

[Ute2]

Yeah…. If the new big12 is paying out anything near the Pac-12 once Oklahoma and texas split then Kliavkoff screwed the pooch in not plucking 2-4 of those teams (or is screwing the pooch everyday he doesn’t invite them).

And I doubt that’s the case. I was quiet intrigued by the prospect of picking some teams for our conference. But the research must’ve shown nobody will help us pay the bills…

[chinngiskhaan]

I was attempting to be as generous as possible in my assessment of the Big12.  They will be 5th, and we are 4th until our top flight programs step up… which I don’t necessarily think is good for our team.

[Central Coast Ute]

Realignment isn’t finished.

[Duhwayne]

BYU is NOT a national fan base. Utah’s TV numbers are often better than BYUs. It’s been a while since I looked them up, but when I did the share for a BYU road game was often the lowest of the year for the opponent. I think Utah actually travels pretty well too.

I do agree that Houston is the sleeper. Houston is the largest metro area in the US after NY, LA and Chicago and it trails Chicago by not that much. If the school can capture the city it will drive a lot of media and snowball into a national brand like Miami did in the 80s.

[chinngiskhaan]

Come on man… I’m not claiming that they have tons of fans everywhere, just that they have people who want to watch their games all over the country. BYU is a destination school for members of their faith throughout the world. You can’t say the same thing about any other school in that conference. Does anyone outside of the state of Oklahoma have dreams of attending Oklahoma State? (does anyone inside of oklahoma have those dreams?)

I know we all love to hate on BYU, but what is the point of being petty?

[ProudUte]

I agree with you.  For years they have made the attendance argument as to why they are better, which means nothing.  Sometimes rivals argue over the dumbest things.  We do it and they do it.

They are now in the BIG12.  So some of them believe that this will put a stop to our great Texas and Florida recruiting.  It will change things some I suspect.  But, as is the case with all change – you need to adjust and we will.  The Utes will be fine!

The good news for me is that we should no longer be compelled to play them.  Texas and TAMU have not played in years.  I’m sure we will still play them from time to time, but I hope no more than every third year.

Go Utes!!!

[MDUte]

Congrats to TDS. I know this is an unpopular opinion but I think this is a great thing for the rivalry and the state. I realize that most on here would like to see the rivalry go away entirely and I admit I’ve waffled back and forth on this idea because of my hatred for all things BYU-P. But I’ve come to the realization that one of the biggest reasons why I love and prefer college football over the NFL is because of tradition and rivalries that you only get with college football. I think having a healthy rivalry with TDS makes everything more fun and exciting. When I think back to all of the biggest moments in Utah Football history (for me dating back to the mid-80s) an overwhelming majority of these moment were tied to the rivalry game. There’s the blowout by the Big Lefty that ended the streak, the miracle 57 yard field goal by Yergensen that turned the tide on the rivalry swinging things back to our way, the snow game, the tortilla tosses when we first busted the BCS, the FG block by Burton, 54-10, the doink and rush the field 3 times game, the Vegas Bowl barrage of pick 6s and 35-0 first quarter, the stop on the 2 pt conversion, the Shelley comeback etc etc etc. I know I’m missing many more of these moments. My point is that I don’t want to throw all of this great history and tradition away moving forward. And I am of the belief that the “instate game” should be played every year possible. Especially when we move to 8 conference games. I’ve loved dominating TDS for a long time now and want nothing more than to see this continue.

But with them being in the Big 12 I believe it will breathe new life into the game. These past 10 years there’s been no upside for us. If we win we were expected to. And if we lose (thankfully it hasn’t happened) then it’s an embarrassing loss that hurts our SoS. That all changes IMO with them in the Big 12. And now the rivalry game should be a solid SoS win for us in addition to it being one of the great national rivalries between our fanbases. To have Salt Lake County now PAC 12 territory and Utah County Big 12 country is a great thing for the state of Utah. We won’t ever have an NFL team, however, with the Utes, TDS, and Jazz…Utah/Salt Lake City has become quite the sports town IMO.

Again I realize most of you don’t see it this way so feel free to flame away if you like. I do very much respect your opinion of wanting to see TDS die all together and I get it. I’ve felt the same way for many many years. But regardless of how BYU-P fans spin it, they got in out of desperation by a “left behind” league. Whereas we earned our way into the PAC 12 and gained the invitation that they could only dream of. They’ll never fully be on our level and they know that. But here’s to another decade of dominance and the continuation of one of the greatest rivalries in college football. #10iscoming and Go Utes!!!!

[Stone]

Objectively speaking, it is pretty cool that, only 45 minutes apart on the Wasatch front, there will be a Pac12 and Big12 school playing. Who would have imagined that 15 years ago? Granted, it is a different Big12, but it is a win for sports fans along the Wasatch front and Utah generally. 

[Stone]

@chinngiskhaan I agree with all you said. A very fair, objective analysis. Well done.

In terms of money, the departure of OU and UT will be a big hit long-term, but short-term, there may be some decent money to avoid a lawsuit and due to departure fees (not sure how much the new schools will share in that short-term windfall though).

The new Big12 will still be a solid conference with some great football and basketball. The media markets are definitely on the small side, but they have some loyal fan bases and well funded schools. It will be interesting. It is absolutely the right move for TDS (frankly, I think TDS would have been better off in the MWC than independent, so this is even better for them).

[ironman1315]

I think byus football stands a chance of getting worse. I don’t think they’ll get that much of a recruiting bump. And playing week in and week out talented athletic teams is killer.