There is absolutely ZERO chance of them getting one. Zoobs think there is, but that’s because they don’t understand how these games are given out.
With Ala beating UGa, and Cincy beating Hou, and Mich on pace to beat Iowa, those 4 teams will play in the CFP (Cotton & Orange).
Since Ala will be in the CFP, the Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to fall to the next highest SEC school, which is UGa, but since they’re going to the CFP poll, it’ll fall to Ole’ Miss.
If Mich beats Iowa (and as of 10pm EST, it sure looks that way), Mich will also play in the CFP, which means their Rose Bowl will be contractually obligated to fall to the next highest BigTen team — which would be Ohio St.
Cincy is a virtual lock to go to the CFP, but even if N Dame slips ahead of them, they’ll still lock up the designated “midmajor” NY6 bowl. There is no contractual obligation to give that NY6 bowl to another conference champion should Cincy go to the CFP.
N Dame, and Mich St are both already ahead of the tdS, and since none of them will play another game until their respective bowl games, they’ll stay ahead. There are 2 at-large NY6 bowls this year — Peach and Fiesta — and ND and MSU will fill 2 of those slots.
The winner of the Pitt-WF game is contractually obligated to fill one of the 2 remaining at-large bids.
Since Bylr upset Okla St, they’re a lock for the Sugar Bowl. And since Okla St was ranked #5 in the most recent CFP poll, a narrow loss to the #9 team in the country, in a CCG won’t drop them low enough to fall behind ybU. So Okla St will fill the remaining at-large bid.
And Utah will get the Rose.
So whether or not Utah, Pitt/WF, or Iowa — in the unlikely chance they upset Mich — need to pass the tdS in the final CFP poll to get into one, because they’re contractually mandated.
There can be only 4 teams playing in the CFP, and 8 in the remaining 4 NY6 games.
CFP: Ala, Mich, UGa, Cincy
NY6 (5 contractual): Bylr, Miss, Ohio St, Pitt/WF, Utah
NY6 (3 at-large): N Dame, Okla St, Mich St
And that’s “bowl” math.
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