What I have noticed in many things, especially sports, the best predictor or the coming year is not last year. In statistics there is the concept of ‘regression to the mean’ which helps predict the next data point. This concept is even more important when the most recent data points have deviated more from the mean. Of course there are exceptions but those exceptions are related to variables with identifiable impact.
As it relates to our football season coming up, it would be best to look first to the mean over the last half dozen years as the strongest prediction. This would be two championship years, two down years and two contender years after 3 years as a strong contender. The mean would be conference contender. You could lean into a better prediction if you consider the Pac schedules stronger than that in the Big-12. You could lean into a lessor prediction if you believe variables such as coaching have changed for the worse. I still think satisfaction with the QB position alone will eliminate the concerns from the last two years. But then, I am an optimist.
I expect Utah to contend for the championship along with other Big-12 teams that have recent championships or contention years. I also expect teams that had a much better year last year than their recent mean to most likely return to their mean or say a couple of contenders will return to mediocre.
Utah @ 
UCLA 
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