The USC fan base and media slobbering over the Riley hire is entertaining

[Trailgoat]

USC is desparately searching for a coach or someone to recapture the good old days. Riley will figure out quick the P12 is a much different animal than the Big 12 and the days of USC being the golden child of Southern California are long gone. I give Riley 2-3 years at most coaching at USC. No doubt he’s a great coach and will win some games, but the path to the play-off coaching in the P12 may not be as easy as some think. Yogi Roth interviewing Riley yesterday holding the USC microphone was hilarious. 

[DataUte]

If they gave Helton 6, Riley will at least see that, but 10 years is a long contract unless he totally dominates. If he can’t do it, who else is there?

[Tony (admin)]

How is the Pac-12 a different animal? Why wouldn’t he be able to make the playoff? Just looking for a deeper explanation from your post. 

[Rick]

I am not sure about the Pac 12 being a different animal but I do think the age of the transfer portal will have a huge impact on building the quality of depth that USC enjoyed during the Pete Carroll days.  Just look at the QB position as an example.  They have Dart, he will be a sophomore.  What 5 star QB is the “genius” Lincoln Riley going to bring in that will be willing to sit for two years?  Now mulitply that across all 22 positions.  With the 85 scholarship limits, NIL and the transfer portal I just don’t see many dynasties being built today.  Hell, even look at Alabama this year.  They were very lucky to not have 2 losses going into the SEC championship game.  Look at Clemson, Ohio State, etc.  It is going to be very tough to get to the top and even more difficult to stay there.  I can only see a few programs doing it and I do not think USC, with their administration, is one of those teams. 

I think they will be better under Riley but I don’t see this as the death of the rest of the Pac 12 south.  I am also reminded of all of the talk when UCLA brought in Chip Kelly or when Arizona brought in Rich Rod.  Riley has proven to be someone who took over an already solid Big 12 championship team and raised up one side of the ball to the detriment of the defensive side.  If you look at his record, all he did is continue what he inherited from Stoops.  At USC he is inheriting a much worse situation in a much more unfriendly environment.  Unless he has immediate success, I see the LA market losing interest fast much the way they did with Chip Kelly.  

[DataUte]

Dart may be a placeholder for 1 year at best while a transfer sits out or a 5* freshman CA QB that signs in 2 weeks waits for Dart to get injured or have a bad game. So in 2023, Caleb Williams or some other 5* from CA will be playing, not Dart.

[Utesbyfive]

You seem not to recall that Dart was 5*. I think he’s going to be their guy if they stick with him.

[DataUte]

That’s because the site I looked at had Jaxson as a 4* (0.96 grade, #10 QB in the class of 2021). 5* QB Malachi Nelson (0.9995, #2 QB in class of 2022), 5* WR Brandon Inniss, and 4* RB Treyaun Webb all decommitted from OU immediately. I could see all them follow Riley to USC. Many have them flipped to USC prediction already.

[Johnny]

I thought Nelson was 2023, data?

[DataUte]

You are correct. Wow, things really heating up early. I guess with Arch Manning and the rest, they are trying to impress those Juniors.

Devin Brown (Corner Canyon, 4*, 0.9741) opened up his recruitment when Helton was fired, but maybe he decides to go again and compete against Jaxson.

I guess the point is – Riley will play whomever he wants and recruit up and replace an incumbant/starter even with a Freshman. See Rattler vs. Williams.

[Central Coast Ute]

I’m not sure it’s Riley’s guy that will sit. Don’t be shocked to see Dart hit the portal in the next couple of years.

Also, I don’t think the current administration at USC is all that bad. It’s the alumni that are paying for this huge contract you have to worry about. If they continue to meddle, they’ll stay as underachievers, just like Texas.

[Trailgoat]

Need to beat ND every year and other good non-conference teams, run the table in the P12. For right now, the B12 has more conference power than the P12. Point is, margin of error is less in the P12. Other than the P12 Championship, if USC is highly ranked, there may be years they don’t play a ranked team in the P12. It’s been noted by coaches the way the P12 conference is set up and games are scheduled from 9am to 8:30pm at night is a challenge. 

Stepping into a program that’s struggled to recover over the past 13 years churning through some decent coaches along the way after Carroll left the program in a NCAA mess.  USC has high expecations with a low patience threshold to get back to the good old days of Caroll, Robinson, and Mckay. History of administrative issues and a shaky culture. Is there still a ton of potential for USC to succeed, no doubt.  

I’m sure OU has it’s own challenges, but Stoops built a program with a solid foundation and a culture for the past 20 years. Riley was handed a well oiled machine with Stoops to support in the wings as needed, to his credit he sustained the success. Not saying Riley won’t have success at USC, only pointing out USC is in a much different state with high expctations then when he took over at OU and he will be facing challenges and a culture never seen before in his short years as a head coach. 

[Central Coast Ute]

Totally agree with this. I think we’ll see an immediate impact in recruiting, but let’s wait and see what happens on the field. At USC, especially with what the rumors are for what he’s being paid, there will be zero room for error. He has to hit the ground running from day one or else his seat will start warming up. The boosters are paying big money and they’ll expect a big ROI right away.

[younglurch]

I agree that we shouldn’t be so quick to coronate USC the kings of the PAC, especially considering their roster needs some work. However, there’s a reason everyone is talking about it that way. SoCal is a talent hotbed, and given Riley’s reputation as an offensive genius, he will have his pick of elite players. The days of USC being the golden child are far from gone. 

All Riley has to do is win 11 games and the conference championship and they will be in the playoff. It may not happen right away, but he’s going to be more successful than Chip Kelly was on his glorious return. In the south he just has to worry about Utah. In the North for now it’s just Oregon. 

Like it or not, this elevates the whole conference. With our new TV deal coming up, having a consistent top 5 USC in our conference will earn everyone a bigger slice of the pie. As USC becomes good, it will force other athletic departments to spend more to keep up. Would you rather be winning a conference nobody cares about? Or would you rather be a scrappy underdog in an elite conference with a championship shot every few years? I know which I prefer. 

Sure, some programs will still be bottom-feeders. But I can tell you schools like Arizona would rather be getting pounded by top 5 teams on a weekly basis than getting destroyed by unranked teams.