Right now, they have three teams in the Big 12 at 8.5 wins: ASU, KSU, and Texas Tech.
That is a fairly low bar for a conference champion.
They have Utah and BYU at 7.5 wins. I think that is about right for Utah. I am a bit surprised that Vegas didn’t have BYU with more wins.
Who knows anything? In 2024, three of the four teams in the Big 12 that had a 10-2 record were projected as the bottom four teams. All of the top ranked teams except ISU collapsed including the Utes.