[Caleb]

I don’t know how it’ll break down but I suspect Utah finishes anywhere between 6-6 and 8-4.

[Caleb]

When was the last time Utah won just two conference games? Or finished with a losing record? Yeah, up until last year, it had been over a decade since that happened. And yet it did.

If your thinking is that 9-3 is the expected result, you’re looney tunes, my friend and absolutely bordering on the delusion we used to mock BYU fans over for so many years.

Yes, 9-3 is possible, as I said, but also as I said: the way some here talk about 11-1 (something rarely done in the Whitt era at Utah – and only done once in the P4/5 era after returning a loaded team with Huntley at QB), is how they should be talking about a 9-3 season: possible with some solid breaks but definitely not the expectation.

The expectation should be 7-5, maybe 8-4 but setting the floor at 9-3 is just crazy.

Guess how many times Whitt has finished a regular season with three or fewer losses as coach since Utah made the jump to the P5/4?

Three times:

2015 (9-3, finished 10-3)
2019 (11-1, finished 11-3)
2021 (9-3, finished 10-4)

Some of you over here putting what have historically been outlier seasons for Whitt as the expectation is just wild to me. Talk about gibberish.

[Caleb]

The problem isn’t Utah’s NIL placement below the Big 10 and SEC, it’s their placement in the Big 12. Utah is middle of the road at best when it comes to the NIL in their own conference and why they are not equipped to compete long-term with the top-half in this new landscape. The money and resources just aren’t there. They are a rung below the Arizona schools, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech. I suspect until there’s dramatic change, the Big 12 title will cycle through these schools for the most part.

[Caleb]

Maybe…but I feel this team is closer to 7-5 than they are 9-3.

There are a few things going against ’em that concern me:

1. Opening on the road vs UCLA. This is a game that I think Utah can win and will likely dictate the season. But as of right now, Vegas puts Utah only as a three-point favorite.

It’s going to be a toss-up and Utah doesn’t have the greatest road track record under Whittingham.

2. Everything is predicated on the offense being better and while I believe it will, it’s still an uncertain area because much of the talent is new. How long will it take for the offense to gel? We might need ’em to by week one because…

3. The defense, which Utah has been able to lean on with inexperienced and struggling offenses in the past, lost a lot of talent from last year.

4. The turnaround. Utah is in uncharted territory. Back during the transition into the Pac-12, losing seasons in 2012 and 2013 were understandable. This isn’t. Utah was supposedly ready-made for the Big 12 and got absolutely depantsed last year. Yes, losing Rising was crushing but I think there were far more problems than we ever thought possible – and they would have likely upended the season somehow, even if Rising didn’t go down. Utah football was flirting with a collapse pre-Rising and they’ve kinda collapsed post-Rising. Is this a trend or a fluke? I’m not going to lie, I am a bit concerned Whitt has lost his Mojo. I’m not saying he can’t get it back but this is kinda how it starts for coaches in their twilight. Bobby Bowden had one 7-6 season in 2006 – the most losses FSU had experienced since his first season in 1976. And then they had another … and another. LaVell Edwards saw a sharp decline and inability to turn BYU back into the power fans expected there at the end. Will Whitt see a similar stagnation? Again: could be a fluke last two seasons built around injuries. But I don’t feel nearly as confident in this coaching staff as I did two years ago.

5. Momentum. It’s big in college football. Is Utah having a hiccup like BYU when they joined the Big 12 – and poised to flip things around this year or are we looking at a UCF/Cincinnati situation where they do well enough and amazing in their previous conference but 6-7/3-9 and 4-8/5-7 in their first two seasons in the Big 12?

I feel Utah can be good. I don’t know if I buy they can be very good. If they pull a BYU or ASU, it would be shocking to me – maybe the most shocking season next to 2021 in Utah football history.

I don’t think they’ll be awful, either but 7-5 feels about right.

[Caleb]

‘Just fine’ is the key.

Literally a poster in this thread said 8-4 would be a disappointment. If your framing of Utah’s success is calling 8-4 a disappointment, then you need to recalibrate things.

Utah will be just fine in the sense I believe they’ll be competitive and likely push for a bowl game – probably even make a bowl game.

But I’d wager the most realistic ‘just fine’ scenario for this team is closer to 2023 than 2022.

Yet some are predicting 9-3 as the expectation and that they’re 11-1 with a few breaks.

That’s crazy. Utah might go 9-3 but that will be the result of a few breaks. 11-1 should not be anywhere near Utah fans’ vocabulary. It reeks of delusion.

[Caleb]

It’s crazy because Utah is coming off a 5-7 season where they only won two conference games, lost a significant amount of talent on defense and have an unproven offense.

Yeah, it’s borderline delusional to expect nine regular season wins.

Is it possible? Sure. Anything is theoretically possible but no, I do not believe it should be the expectation.

Utah is still a flawed team until proven otherwise.

But this whole thread is filled with a lot of potential delusion. The fact some fans are even discussing a playoff bid, and 11 regular season wins, is wild to me considering even at the height of the Cam Rising era, the best stretch of Utah football we’ve seen under Whitt, they still averaged four losses.

I maintain Utah’s win total is most likely to fall between 6 and 7 wins. Anything greater than 7 wins should be considered exceeding expectations. 9 wins especially – but yes, claiming Utah will win 9 regular season wins is the expectation is crazy. The way some in this thread talk about Utah going 11-1 is how they should be talking about 9-3 – doable but absolutely not the expectation.

[Caleb]

Vegas has Utah’s win total at 7.5. 8-4 would be a solid season considering the uncertainty of the last two years.

Fans expecting 9-3 are crazy lol

It’s possible but THAT would be a great season.

[Caleb]

lol Utah won two conference games last year.

That only happened once in the Pac-12.

The Big 12 isn’t a gauntlet but Utah also isn’t projected to be all that great.

[Caleb]

This is extremely rosy unfortunately.

I’ll say this: 7-5 is far closer to Utah’s ceiling than it is their floor.

[Caleb]

Utah still has questionable talent depth behind Wayshawn Parker, so it’s perfectly valid to have concerns, especially since Utah loves to run on offense under Whitt.

[Author]

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