[UteThunder]

I saw a report that mentioned Jay turned down a HC job this offseason, but it didn’t mention which one, though I assume it was Utah State. My guess is that if he is going to be a HC, he wants it to either be at Utah or BYU but he would leave the state for the right P4 HC job. In the mean time, I think he is content to be a DC for BYU but would switch to Utah as long as the money is comparable.

When Morgan takes over as HC, if Jay doesn’t come over to be our DC it will be because BYU backed up the Brinks truck to keep him, Morgan didn’t want him, or Jay is betting that Scalley won’t be successful and by staying away he will have an opportunity to replace Morgan in a few years.

[Utah]

Before LaVell, Utah won 70% of the time.

Since LaVell retired, Utah has won 70% of the time.

There ain’t no f**king cycle.

BYU had LaVell. Kalani ain’t no LaVell.

Whitt messed up and didn’t adjust fast enough with the demotion to the Big 12.

BYU ain’t it.

[SLC-UteFan]

I am a part-time day trader. There are three things doing day trading that actually apply here:

1. The trend is your friend.
2. The trend hasn’t changed until it has confirmed it has changed.
3. Use probability and no emotion

For a sustained trend, it is reasonable to expect a “pause” in the trend. 9 wins in a row is a trend. 2 losses is simply a pause. It is mathematically expected.

Of course the pause could change and become a reversal. And in that case byu would be on top with Utah behind for some time. Or the pause could become a new, weaker trend of “sideways movement” so to speak, for a period of time.

But just like in day trading I evaluate the pause to see clues if the pause is becoming a reversal.

Now, I see far more evidence that the 2 game streak that byu has is NOT a reversal where they are the dominant team for a significant time and Utah is now in the backseat.

If the trend were reversing byu would have destroyed Utah last year. I mean their best team in 25+ years and Utah’s worst team in 25+ produced a lousy one point win. They should have won by two touchdowns or more. The opportunity was there.

I believe this is a “pause” in Utah’s trend and the trend weakens with Utah winning more games against them but no 9 game streaks. Utah wins a few and they win a few. At worst 50/50. At best Utah winning a bit more than 50%.

Evidence is solid that byu is improving and the gap with Utah is slim. No doubt. I still think Utah is the better program regardless of their two recent wins (this is a pause. Not a reversal.)

They’ve improved their recruiting. But talk of high school recruits is half the picture if transfers are not included. Utah won convincingly there.

Byu has great NIL. But the post above about Utah’s NIL is spot on. And let’s see what the house settlement brings. I fully believe that NIL will be regulated or whatever. It has to. And it will. And byu’s advantage will be lessened.

No doubt Utah MUST win this year or it becomes dangerous that the “pause” becomes a “reversal”.

Eliminate emotion – in other words – look at the evidence and not the byu hype machine. I could say a lot more about evidence but this is enough.

Screw them. Go Utes.

[PhiladelphiaUte]

Utah out-recruited ybu-p every year since 2002, when recruiting services started rating players, and ranking recruiting classes. That was well before our “Pac-12” era.

Also, Utah went 7-5 against them during the “MWC” era, and outperformed them overall since retaking the mantle of “top dog” all the way back to 1993.

[Holladay Ute]

I think Utah has more NIL money than people give it credit for. It’s just not as loud or flashy. Our top players would not have stuck around if we were on a different planet with our NIL offering.

Also, they have won two in a row close games against Utah. They are not dominating and have never dominated outside of the LE era. Why are people (including us) so quick to crown them? They had a 5-7 season just like us two years ago. Last year was impressive and they had a great team. Utah did that for like 10 years in a row. BYU had a lot of fortunate bounces last year. They were one of the luckiest teams in the country and we were one of the most unlucky. We will see how they do with the bad luck they had with the Retzlaff situation.

Their recruiting classes have not been impressive at all until this current year. And they have had plenty of big-time QB recruits historically (Olsen, Heaps, Mangum, etc.). Before we start crowning somebody, they need to prove they’re good for many years in a row (more than one or two).

They are lucky to have an easy schedule this year, but they could still struggle a lot after losing what they lost in the offseason. I think our records will be closer than they are apart this year, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the roles are completely reversed (we have the kind of year they had last year and they have the kind of year we had). I think we will win 9 regular season games and I think they will win maybe 7. It wouldn’t be a huge shocker (like it was last year) if one team won 11 and the other won 5…

[Central Coast Ute]

The 90’s and very early 2000’s were the McBride era. I think you mean 70’s and 80’s.

[BeachUte]

Cool. Throw in 2019 and that’s basically four games in the last 20+ years Utah dominated and three of those wins involved Utah teams that went on to win 11+ games. Definitely doesn’t change the point that Utah rarely dominates, especially when the teams are generally equal.

I’m cool with just a win in Provo.

[BeachUte]

No, I meant to type pre-Meyer, so the 90s and early 2000s when Utah started beating BYU head-to-head but weren’t at the level nationally as the Cougars, who were still winning conference titles and finishing in the top25.

The Utes did a great job stepping up in the rivalry compared to the 70s and 80s but they certainly weren’t BYU’s equal most seasons, and they rarely eclipsed the Cougars even if they won the rivalry game.

From 1992-2002, Utah went 6-5 vs BYU (I think, if my memory is right), yet only had one top25 season (1994), six bowl games and two (shared) conference titles (1995 and 1999). In that same span, BYU three top25 finishes (1994, 1996, 2001), seven bowl games and six conference titles.

The gap definitely narrowed but the Cougars held an advantage in pretty much every metric outside the actual game. And that’s my point. Despite Utah finally beating BYU on a relative-consistent basis, it was generally the Cougars who had a higher ceiling, as we saw in 1996 and again in 2001.

That changed with Urban. Utah became not only the better team head-to-head but generally nationally too (more so after 2008 as BYU had some good teams in the early Bronco days).

So, I don’t expect the rivalry to go back to the 70s and 80s where BYU dominates head-to-head, while also being head and shoulders above Utah nationally. But the question now becomes: does the rivalry revert back to the 90s and early 2000s where Utah is competitive in the rivalry game but BYU is the bigger brand nationally? Or does Utah still remain a rung above BYU in brand stature like they have the last 14 or so years?

[Central Coast Ute]

Nah. Utah dominated the 2019 game. BYU had 15 offensive plays in the second half and Utah took a knee to run the clock off at the 1 yard line.

[HATUman]

Well for BYU’s sake I hope it’s Pride Cyclical.

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