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[Josh]

Some key numbers from the article:

-Viewership was 10.9 million.
-Previous Rose Bowl low was 13.6 million (2016).
-Still the most-watched non-playoff bowl this year; 2nd was Sugar Bowl at 9.6 million.
-Semifinals drew 21.7 million and 22.4 million, respectively.

[Josh]

Any idea which side of stadium is Utah?

[Josh]

Massey says 28-20

Utah win

Neutral site

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=308075&oid0=8315&h=0&s1=308075&oid1=4858

[Josh]

The biggest difference in my opinion is predictability.

In the past we were a more one dimensional team on both defense and offense.

By that I don’t mean we could only run or only throw, but I mean our running game was predictable (same lanes, same plays, same downs) and our throwing game was predictable (same plays, same receivers, same downs) – it often took 7 games or so for opponents to understand our playbook, but by the time November rolled around they almost always did.

Defense was better but not much different. Predictability around the rush. We had to rush more than we do today to pressure the QB and only had a few DBs that could protect against the pass. Again, it took 8-9 games for opponents to figure this out, but they almost always did

[Josh]

When will kickoff time be announced?

[Josh]

And now any NFL scout not worth their weight knows it too

[Josh]

Massey says odds of 3 wins is 83% and odds of 2 wins is 15.7%

[Josh]

Yeah my 92, 93, and 97.5 give odds of 83.4% chance of not losing another game

[Josh]

Not Monty hall. What I’m saying is that the odds of winning out are pretty straight forward:

97% * 91% * 92* = 81.2% chance of winning out

The problem with this is that we don’t really care about winning out.

As soon as we lose one more game, our chances of going to Pac12 championship and CFP are reduced significantly.

So what we really care about is, what are the odds that we don’t lose one more game.

In my scenarios those were in the 92-97.5% range that we don’t lose one more game.

Why are those odds different? Because the calculation of winning out includes some odds in the calculation that we lose not just one game, but two games, or even three – as slik as those odds are, they are included in cumulative probabilities.

So if you care about our odds of winning out, yes it’s 81.2%… but if you care about not losing one more, it’s in the 90% range.

Think about the null hypothesis you are trying to calculate

[Josh]

Kind of

81% is the straight odds that we win out during regular season. But if you check that math it’s actually much higher.

Why?

We don’t really care about winning out necessarily, we care about NOT losing one more game. Yes, they are the same thing, but statistically they are not.

So…

what are the odds that we beat UCLA and Colorado, but not Arizona?

8% … or said better, 92% chance that we don’t let that happen.

What about beating UCLA AND Arizona, but not Colorado?

2.5% … or said better, a 97.5% chance we don’t let that happen?

What about lose to UCLA but beat Arizona and Colorado?

7.0% … or said better, a 93% chance we don’t let that happen.

However, the odds I just spelled out above are not cumulative statistics… so said more simply we have a 92-97.5% chance of not losing one of our next 3 games.

It’s early in the morning on Sunday and my stats skills might be WAYYYY off this morning, but I believe what i said is correct…