Massey has Utah #7, favored to win all remaining regular season contests. Ki-yi!

[dystopiamembrane]

Link

[UtahFanSir]

Your link is to Oregon.

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8315&s=308075

Link to Utah

[dystopiamembrane]

Ha. Thanks, I fixed it. #2 Defense behind Clemson, btw!

[RUUTES]

Favored always worries me. #7 looks earned after last night. The OU/USC thrashing last night though might make some push the ducks over someone who was idle. I have to say I really do look forward to us getting a shot to compare our D to their O…but we still have 3 games to play (with an improving UCLA) before we think about that too much.

Still very nice week ahead. I’ll face bye with a smile.

[GameForAnyFuss]

Since somebody will ask before long, the odds of winning out (using Massey) are 81.2%

[Josh]

Kind of

81% is the straight odds that we win out during regular season. But if you check that math it’s actually much higher.

Why?

We don’t really care about winning out necessarily, we care about NOT losing one more game. Yes, they are the same thing, but statistically they are not.

So…

what are the odds that we beat UCLA and Colorado, but not Arizona?

8% … or said better, 92% chance that we don’t let that happen.

What about beating UCLA AND Arizona, but not Colorado?

2.5% … or said better, a 97.5% chance we don’t let that happen?

What about lose to UCLA but beat Arizona and Colorado?

7.0% … or said better, a 93% chance we don’t let that happen.

However, the odds I just spelled out above are not cumulative statistics… so said more simply we have a 92-97.5% chance of not losing one of our next 3 games.

It’s early in the morning on Sunday and my stats skills might be WAYYYY off this morning, but I believe what i said is correct…

[GameForAnyFuss]

I believe what i said is correct…

It’s not. Sorry man. Playing the degree card is going to make me sound like a dick, but I have a master’s in statistics and I’d bet my house that my math is right.

You might be overthinking it just a bit. I’m trying to figure out your rationale but I’m struggling. Are you trying to apply the Monty Hall Problem?

[Josh]

Not Monty hall. What I’m saying is that the odds of winning out are pretty straight forward:

97% * 91% * 92* = 81.2% chance of winning out

The problem with this is that we don’t really care about winning out.

As soon as we lose one more game, our chances of going to Pac12 championship and CFP are reduced significantly.

So what we really care about is, what are the odds that we don’t lose one more game.

In my scenarios those were in the 92-97.5% range that we don’t lose one more game.

Why are those odds different? Because the calculation of winning out includes some odds in the calculation that we lose not just one game, but two games, or even three – as slik as those odds are, they are included in cumulative probabilities.

So if you care about our odds of winning out, yes it’s 81.2%… but if you care about not losing one more, it’s in the 90% range.

Think about the null hypothesis you are trying to calculate

[GameForAnyFuss]

What I’m saying is that the odds of winning out are pretty straight forward:

97% * 91% * 92* = 81.2% chance of winning out

Think about the null hypothesis you are trying to calculate

Last thing I’ll say about it: Go back to my original post. All I presented was the odds of winning out. And I did that, and I did it correctly. I didn’t “try to calculate” anything else. The null hypothesis doesn’t matter because all I tried to determine is the odds of winning out – nothing more, nothing less.

Again, our odds of winning out are 81.2%.

[Warrior Ute]

Massey will actually run a Monte Carlo Simulation for the rest of the season.  Just click on more and then simulate season.  It appears like they use all the data from all the game simultions they have run for each game in the Monte Carlo simulation.  This gives a bit more data to play with but results are close to yours.

Massey’s reported chances of some teams of interest to Utah winning out:

UCLA – 1.744% (Some talking heads are brining up they still control their own destiny)

U$C – 21.579%

Oregon – 68.913%

Utah – 83.036%

[Josh]

Yeah my 92, 93, and 97.5 give odds of 83.4% chance of not losing another game

[Josh]

Massey says odds of 3 wins is 83% and odds of 2 wins is 15.7%

[Ute_Fan_79]

Definitely like those odds. The team needs to stay focused and not think they can coast through the season, but my gut right now tells me that Huntley and Moss and the rest of the senior leadership are a big help with that.

I’ve never looked at the Massey site much, but was interested to see what there’s a matchup tool section. According to that, Utah vs. UO would be a really close game with Utah winning 51% of the time. I realize that’s looking ahead, but thought it was interesting.

[Author]

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