The Upcoming “Expansion” (but in reality, contraction) in College Football

[Utah]

The big hangup on getting 4 super conferences is the idea that all four conferences need to have 16 teams. But why? None of the conferences have even teams right now. There is no need to have each conference be even.

So, here is my thoughts on how we end up with 4 super conferences:

We know the Big 12 is dead. So, what happens to the Big 12?

Oklahoma and Ok St go to the SEC, bringing the SEC up to 16 teams.

Texas and ND to the ACC, getting the ACC up to 16 teams.

The Big 10 then grabs Houston and Kansas, getting them up to 16 teams.

That gives you three, 16 team conferences. What about the PAC-12? Well, what about the PAC-12? If there isn’t a team that brings money to the PAC-12, then why expand? What are their options? TCU? That’s it. That is the only TV market worth anything.

So, the PAC-12 stays at 12. There is no need to expand. Nothing else changes. Each conference negotiates their TV deal. The PAC-12 waits until New Mexico or UNLV or Boise or whoever gets big enough to bring value to the conference. Until then, all things stay the same.

That solves every problem. Then, you can have a legit playoff (and, no, the other conferences wouldn’t care, because it would be easier to win a 16 team conference than a 12, because you miss the better teams more often and get the weaker teams more often).

First round: Conference Title games.

Second round: Rose Bowl (PAC-12 vs Big 10) and Sugar Bowl (SEC vs ACC)

Title game at a neutral site every year (or rotating site).

You still have all your other bowls. You still play G5 schools. You still play FCS schools. Nothing else changes.

Unless you are Baylor, TCU, WV, Texas Tech, Kansas St, Iowa St. Then, life sucks.

[Riot West]

I live in Los Angeles and I never hear anyone ever talk about expansion. At most I’ll see something on TV once in a while about the BIG 12, but it isn’t 24-hours a day. Is this just a Utah media thing because of BYU-P?

[Anonymous]

Yeah I don’t see the PAC12 expanding either for a long time.  They might try for Texas who will play with anyone to get what Texas wants.  I think more teams just dilute things in the conference more.  USC has kind of buyers remorse including Colorado and Utah I think.  I also don’t think USC wants to deal with the ego of Texas at the table.

Money is the mover in all of this.  If the money works the PAC will take whoever.

[aquasaurious]

Personally, I’d rather see six 10-team conferences. Then everyone plays a 9 game league schedule, and the winner gets a bid to an 8 team playoff (with two “wild-cards”). Forget conference championship games where the two teams have likely already played, and instead make those early December games the first round of the playoff.

[FountainofUte]

I agree with the premise that the PAC doesn’t HAVE TO expand ever even if others go to 16. Still, I think it’s in “our” best interest to be proactive. My thought is that the PAC needs to turn its weakness (being isolated out west) into its strength: we’re the only Power 5 conference that can offer any of the other P5s coast-to-coast coverage. And we need to do it by partnering with the B1G — and be serious about it this time.

I spelled out how I think this would work a couple months ago on the PAC12board:
http://www.pac12board.com/index.php/topic/5956-conference-realignment-the-next-wave-is-coming-long/?p=117088

The TL;DR version is that the PAC and B1G work together to bring Texas, OU, and Notre Dame into their collective fold. Imagine, the two leagues would boast the likes of USC, Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, UCLA, etc. Two leagues, but dotted line partnership that leverages their collective coast-to-coast audiences, tradition and excellence in athletics AND academics.

[GadValleyUte]

That’s a great idea. It would take a lot to buy ND out of their ACC alliance. Isn’t it something like 60 million? That’s not astronomical, but between that and loss of their own private revenue I just don’t see ND changing without some seismic shifts in the landscape and their own budget.

I like P12/B1G partnership idea. If UT comes to the table with 1 other school like maybe OU then I see that alliance commanding serious dollars. It seems natural to have a P12/B1G and SEC/ACC super conferences.
An absolutely scary alliance would be B1G/SEC – while they don’t command the biggest TV markets they do have the most “loyal” followings. I’m not sure how well that would translate to TV revenue. I do know that when the Big Ten network launched while I was living in Columbus Time Warner tried to holdout against it a la Direct TV and the P12 and it lasted for about 24 hrs as they had mass customer exodus to deal with. So even though they don’t have the metro areas they actually have the pull to demand universal distribution.

[Utah man forever]

The PAC 12 could be pro active and offer Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and TCU getting to 16 and controlling their own fate. This alignment would strengthen both football and basketball and add AAU schools. Or take Oklahoma and Houston bringing the conference to 14, breaking the stranglehold of Texas.

[UtesRock]

I’m sorry the big 12 is far from Dead. It will probably expand, but may not. Sorry but Texas will never go anywhere, and where Texas goes OU goes, where OU goes OSU goes. Kansas teams may split, Iowa State may split, but where would they go. The conference if it doesn’t expand will augment their playoff chances with ever increasing quality pre-conference teams such as OSU vs. OU this year.

[FountainofUte]

IMO, the only way the Big 12 survives is if the “other 8” start voting as a block — making moves that may not jive with what UT and OU want, but serves the best interests of those 8. For instance, while we like to crack on BYU, the Other 8 would be smart to add them. And add Cincinnati. Those 10 schools, IMO, would be fine even if the ‘Horns and Sooners bail. You could even add UConn, and maybe someone like Temple or AFA or Boise St. Sure, it would be a marriage of convenience, but ALL of those schools would know they’re better off bound together than apart. You only add Houston if you can get them to guarantee that they vote with the other 8 (fat chance!).

I mean, it would be bad for them if OU and UT leave, but the B12 would still have more cache than the AAC. They’d be considered P5-lite, but that’s still WAY better than completely imploding leaving schools like Iowa State and Kansas State out in the cold like Cincinnati and UConn today.

With that said, those 8 are too fragmented. TT will always do what UT wants. As would Houston if they were added. OSU would do OU’s bidding. There’s just too much divided loyalty in that conference. It’ll eventually rip itself apart.

[UtesRock]

I agree with everything you say, but if I had my last dollar to bet…. Big 12 UT, OU, KS, TT, BU, OSU, KSU, ISU, and newbies stick it out! TO MUCH MONEY TO LOSE$$$$$$$$$$$$. Football is a way of life in Texas and Oklahoma, Fans have no interest in long road trips.

[UtesRock]

Looks like we will find out this Monday. I’m really looking forward to the Disappointment in Provo.