Squashing more bad byu fan narratives
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Utah.
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SLC-UteFanParticipantSquashing more low-IQ byu fan narratives.
By now, you might have seen the post in the football category that lists Utah as the most valuable football program in the Big 12. Honestly, I don’t know how they calculate those numbers, but the were published in The New York Times / The Athletic – a major national media source. It’s the national perception that is the important thing.
And byu’s ranking? A paltry 9th in the conference. LOL!!!!
So, the 4th-grade level byu fan narrative that Utah is some kind of community college that nobody cares about is squashed: #1 football value in the Big 12. And, the narrative that byu is soooooooo much more valuable than Utah is squashed too. Not that we didn’t already know that, LOL! But it’s nice to put evidence for the claims.
Here’s more that will give byu fans trouble.
I love what Brett Yormark said about Utah to Bill Reilly during the Big 12 conference :
“When we went after the four corner schools, we knew they were going to create great value for us… I’m very bullish on Utah football this year. I think last year was an aberration, and candidly, for us to be the best version of ourselves, we need you, Utah, to be at the top of this conference.”
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TednabParticipant.. I guess .. fact is, we’ve lost to them the last two years ..they’re currently sitting #1 in recruiting in the big 12 , while Utes are sitting 10th .. they out number us in major nil donors like 12 to 3 .. but whatever … time will tell with the trajectory of our program , but as it’s sits today, I am not feeling great… we need a dominant win against them this year .. sick of all the hype around them recently
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ChasquiParticipantJust remember, EVERYTHING is cyclical.
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BeachUte
ParticipantI think that’s what some Utah fans fear: the cycle we’re entering is not favorable for the Utes.
Utah and BYU had not been on even footing conference-wise since 2010 – or 14 years before Utah joined the Big 12. That’s a cycle right there that Utah took advantage of by out-recruiting, out-revenuing and out-playing BYU (going what, 8-1 vs the Cougars in that span). They also built a much higher profile.
Granted, it’s one season but BYU certainly seems to have some of the intangibles that Utah had a decade ago in this rivalry and I’m definitely concerned we’re entering a cycle maybe similar to the 90s and early 2000s pre-Meyer: Utah is competitive with BYU on the football field but BYU is the better, more established and successful program nationally.
Utah has a lot riding on this season. BYU too solely because if they regress to their 2023-selves it may bring doubt about their ability to sustain success – while Utah has to prove last year was a fluke.
Ultimately, BYU has an advantage on Utah with the NIL, as the Utes probably fall toward the middle of the conference behind Texas Tech, Baylor, BYU and TCU (maybe Iowa State and Colorado too) but Utah has the advantage of not having the honor code, as we’ve seen this summer how impactful that is for BYU.
The question is which one will be a bigger hindrance? BYU has gobs of cash Utah doesn’t but Utah has a far more liberal player policy than BYU.
I guess we’ll see but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous.
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Central Coast UteParticipantThe 90’s and very early 2000’s were the McBride era. I think you mean 70’s and 80’s.
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Participant
No, I meant to type pre-Meyer, so the 90s and early 2000s when Utah started beating BYU head-to-head but weren’t at the level nationally as the Cougars, who were still winning conference titles and finishing in the top25.
The Utes did a great job stepping up in the rivalry compared to the 70s and 80s but they certainly weren’t BYU’s equal most seasons, and they rarely eclipsed the Cougars even if they won the rivalry game.
From 1992-2002, Utah went 6-5 vs BYU (I think, if my memory is right), yet only had one top25 season (1994), six bowl games and two (shared) conference titles (1995 and 1999). In that same span, BYU three top25 finishes (1994, 1996, 2001), seven bowl games and six conference titles.
The gap definitely narrowed but the Cougars held an advantage in pretty much every metric outside the actual game. And that’s my point. Despite Utah finally beating BYU on a relative-consistent basis, it was generally the Cougars who had a higher ceiling, as we saw in 1996 and again in 2001.
That changed with Urban. Utah became not only the better team head-to-head but generally nationally too (more so after 2008 as BYU had some good teams in the early Bronco days).
So, I don’t expect the rivalry to go back to the 70s and 80s where BYU dominates head-to-head, while also being head and shoulders above Utah nationally. But the question now becomes: does the rivalry revert back to the 90s and early 2000s where Utah is competitive in the rivalry game but BYU is the bigger brand nationally? Or does Utah still remain a rung above BYU in brand stature like they have the last 14 or so years?
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Holladay Ute
ParticipantI think Utah has more NIL money than people give it credit for. It’s just not as loud or flashy. Our top players would not have stuck around if we were on a different planet with our NIL offering.
Also, they have won two in a row close games against Utah. They are not dominating and have never dominated outside of the LE era. Why are people (including us) so quick to crown them? They had a 5-7 season just like us two years ago. Last year was impressive and they had a great team. Utah did that for like 10 years in a row. BYU had a lot of fortunate bounces last year. They were one of the luckiest teams in the country and we were one of the most unlucky. We will see how they do with the bad luck they had with the Retzlaff situation.
Their recruiting classes have not been impressive at all until this current year. And they have had plenty of big-time QB recruits historically (Olsen, Heaps, Mangum, etc.). Before we start crowning somebody, they need to prove they’re good for many years in a row (more than one or two).
They are lucky to have an easy schedule this year, but they could still struggle a lot after losing what they lost in the offseason. I think our records will be closer than they are apart this year, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the roles are completely reversed (we have the kind of year they had last year and they have the kind of year we had). I think we will win 9 regular season games and I think they will win maybe 7. It wouldn’t be a huge shocker (like it was last year) if one team won 11 and the other won 5…
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PhiladelphiaUte
ParticipantUtah out-recruited ybu-p every year since 2002, when recruiting services started rating players, and ranking recruiting classes. That was well before our “Pac-12” era.
Also, Utah went 7-5 against them during the “MWC” era, and outperformed them overall since retaking the mantle of “top dog” all the way back to 1993.
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HATUman
ParticipantWell for BYU’s sake I hope it’s Pride Cyclical.
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Participant
Just a win will do. I don’t ever expect Utah to dominate BYU. I feel like I can count on one hand where the Utes dominated a game (2004, 2008 and 2011).
Just winning should be good enough, especially since I’m sure the Utes will be underdogs entering that game.
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Central Coast UteParticipant
Nah. Utah dominated the 2019 game. BYU had 15 offensive plays in the second half and Utah took a knee to run the clock off at the 1 yard line.
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Participant
Cool. Throw in 2019 and that’s basically four games in the last 20+ years Utah dominated and three of those wins involved Utah teams that went on to win 11+ games. Definitely doesn’t change the point that Utah rarely dominates, especially when the teams are generally equal.
I’m cool with just a win in Provo.
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SLC-UteFanParticipant
I am a part-time day trader. There are three things doing day trading that actually apply here:
1. The trend is your friend.
2. The trend hasn’t changed until it has confirmed it has changed.
3. Use probability and no emotionFor a sustained trend, it is reasonable to expect a “pause” in the trend. 9 wins in a row is a trend. 2 losses is simply a pause. It is mathematically expected.
Of course the pause could change and become a reversal. And in that case byu would be on top with Utah behind for some time. Or the pause could become a new, weaker trend of “sideways movement” so to speak, for a period of time.
But just like in day trading I evaluate the pause to see clues if the pause is becoming a reversal.
Now, I see far more evidence that the 2 game streak that byu has is NOT a reversal where they are the dominant team for a significant time and Utah is now in the backseat.
If the trend were reversing byu would have destroyed Utah last year. I mean their best team in 25+ years and Utah’s worst team in 25+ produced a lousy one point win. They should have won by two touchdowns or more. The opportunity was there.
I believe this is a “pause” in Utah’s trend and the trend weakens with Utah winning more games against them but no 9 game streaks. Utah wins a few and they win a few. At worst 50/50. At best Utah winning a bit more than 50%.
Evidence is solid that byu is improving and the gap with Utah is slim. No doubt. I still think Utah is the better program regardless of their two recent wins (this is a pause. Not a reversal.)
They’ve improved their recruiting. But talk of high school recruits is half the picture if transfers are not included. Utah won convincingly there.
Byu has great NIL. But the post above about Utah’s NIL is spot on. And let’s see what the house settlement brings. I fully believe that NIL will be regulated or whatever. It has to. And it will. And byu’s advantage will be lessened.
No doubt Utah MUST win this year or it becomes dangerous that the “pause” becomes a “reversal”.
Eliminate emotion – in other words – look at the evidence and not the byu hype machine. I could say a lot more about evidence but this is enough.
Screw them. Go Utes.
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UtahParticipantBefore LaVell, Utah won 70% of the time.
Since LaVell retired, Utah has won 70% of the time.
There ain’t no f**king cycle.
BYU had LaVell. Kalani ain’t no LaVell.
Whitt messed up and didn’t adjust fast enough with the demotion to the Big 12.
BYU ain’t it.
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