Aggregate Stat Rankings

[MBAute89]

It seems like a lot of these aggregate stat rankings (SP+, FPI, FEI) are fairly consistent when ranking the top three or so teams, but after that, it’s pretty much a crap shoot. FEI has 3-4 Tennessee ranked just one spot behind Utah (they are a week behind).

So, my question to folks who have more time to dive into it than me is this: What are the best, measurable, statistically significant, most predictive metrics we should look at?

What my frustration boils down to is that pretty much every aggregate statistic predicted Washington to win. What did they miss?

[Anonymous]

I am completely befuddled by USC’s FPI ranking. Utah’s is also a conundrum. Clearly these rankings are not kind to teams that win FUGLY.

[GadValleyUte]

Yeah. I didn’t go through the entire methodology, but the FPI is all about scoring more than expected. Since we don’t do that, we are not well regarded by the metric. I posted on UFN about a metric that is 100% offense based, I think its the Annar, and it has ranked 60s. Clearly offense isn’t everything.

[Anonymous]

That’s what I figured, that the FPI must take into account scoring and margin of victory. So USC benefits from seal clubbings of Idaho St and Arkansas St, then they barely pull a rabbit out of the hat against AZ at home.

Reality is Turnover Margin matters. Utah does not have a highly productive offense, so more possessions matter. Turnovers were costly against USC and they decided the game against UW.

Utah’s ability to force turnovers will be the deciding factor in the remaining games.

[MBAute89]

I think you’re dead on there. The hard part is figuring out how much of turnovers is luck and how much is skill?

[ironman1315]

So, you mean it’s not about scoring on every possession and looking flashy doing it?

[MBAute89]

I think there is definitely bias towards rewarding “style points”.

[Tony (admin)]

^^^could be one of the best discussions to date here at Ute Hub….

[Anonymous]

So I guess UCLA’s 41-0 win over OSU (after they shot their emotional wad against Utah) gets more style points? How about their loss to ASU and Stanford and this weekend’s probable loss to WASU?

[Tony (admin)]

Let us pray.

[MBAute89]

I think you want UCLA to beat Wazzu, as it will improve Utah’s overall strength of schedule.

[Tony (admin)]

I think you want UCLA to beat Wazzu, as it will improve Utah’s overall strength of schedule.

Assuming we win out. But I also like the idea of having more wiggle room.

[Anonymous]

It’s not about want, it’s about projecting. I think WASU has a very good chance of beating UCLA. That is all.

[leftyjace]

The only game I want UCLA to win in the next few weeks is against USC. I want them to lose the rest.
The only game I want Arizona to lose is to Utah. Same with Colorado.

[89ute]

So, my question to folks who have more time to dive into it than me is this: What are the best, measurable, statistically significant, most predictive metrics we should look at?

Peruse the Pac-12 conference only stats. Click here

After looking it over you’ll pretty much say “yeah, we’ll beat these guys”.

[Anonymous]

Instead of just looking at stats, I like to consider strengths vs weakness, strengths vs strengths. Like last week’s game against UW most were focused on UW having the top ranked Defense in the PAC 12. However, their Rush Defense was significantly weaker than Utah’s and the game was going to be played in the rain, which bodes well for a rushing offense. Then factor in turnovers and Booker had not fumbled in over 200 rush attempts, but chose UW for his first. Did not think that a true freshman QB with slightly poorer stats than TW would beat Utah with his passing game in the rain. Then factor in Utah’s ability to pressure the QB.

So it’s more than pure stats. Must consider the match ups.

This WASU vs UCLA game should be interesting. WASU has the best passing offense and UCLA has the best passing defense. Luke Falk has a 70% completion rate and very few INTs. UCLA is decimated with injuries at the LB position. Falk is going to have some time to do his thing. WASU’s Defense is really improving. They were very good against Stanford. I though I was watching Utah’s Defense. I would not be surprise if WASU won this game.

[89ute]

Here’s something I plucked off of espn’s Pac-12 blog

Strength vs. strength: The Wildcats have the league’s second-best rushing offense, averaging 244.5 yards per game. Utah counters with the league’s top rush defense, allowing 114.2 yards per game. In their eight wins this season, the Utes have allowed just three rushing touchdowns.

[oc_ute]

here’s the algorithm

=(xxyyyazzzkkjdsjjkkj * hshdsfuiasdi * yaoidfoashqeopriopi + SEC=move up 5 spots)